the snap general election thread

ThinkingOutLoud_2

So it is true is that a few rebels (or defectors as I am not sure they will be welcome in the C. party ever if they bring down the government) or the DUP reneging or a handful of by-elections would make this very messy.

That risk is what will keep TM in line and collaborative. But as that is not a skill or approach she has ever demonstrated in abundance - interesting times lie ahead.

steampowered

Yes. Another thing that could make it messy would be cabinet resignations.

For example think back to Geoffrey Howe resigning from Thatcher's cabinet. He never held a senior role after sticking it to Thatcher, but was prepared to do so in the interests of the company.

A strong and stable government with a decent majority would be able to ride that sort of thing out. For example Cameron rode out calls for him to resign after IDS resigned. But if something similar happened to TM I don't think she would survive.

mayonnaise

kabayiri wrote: »

Oddly, the thing that could save May (for the time being) is a clear distraction.

Perhaps something involving fractious exchange with bods on the continent...

Mr Juncker, step forward! May's most unlikely ally.

May's "bloody difficult woman" act won't go down well at home anymore.
Question is....will the EU be willing to spend time and capital negotiating with a dead woman walking?

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Or just imagine that as would be in the best interests of the EU and us - our teams of negotiators actually manage to find a sensible way through?

After all the result of the last two months is that a more antagonistic approach seems less viable and likely.

It won't be plain sailing, but that is the difference from before?

Of course, now the opposition may have to support more or decide to disrupt at their and the country's peril.

CKhalvashi

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

Of course, now the opposition may have to support more or decide to disrupt at their and the country's peril.

No, the opposition may have to oppose moves that aren't in the interests of the country.

And rightly so.

We still didn't decide what Brexit means, and that is hugely worrying considering we're about to walk into negotiations.

I'd take a punt we're going to settle on an EEA deal. You may disagree, but May being so vague is leaving that as one of the few viable options. Of course I think Labour may be aiming at the same line to keep the union together should they win the election later this year. It's very likely they're going to need support, and equally likely the SNP will be one of the few willing to give it.

michaels

Labour stood on a platform of restricting free movement of labour and got 40% of the vote.
The Tories ran on a platform of restricting free movement of labour and got 42% of the vote.

Remainers therefore conclude that the electoral mandate is for full acceptance of free movement of labour.

How does that work?

gfplux

mayonnaise wrote: »

May's "bloody difficult woman" act won't go down well at home anymore.
Question is....will the EU be willing to spend time and capital negotiating with a dead woman walking?

Not sure of the accuracy but some of the media are saying that
1) Queens Speech is to be delayed
2) Brexit negotiations are not starting next week.

Is this false news or real news.

Herzlos

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

But isn't this the whole point - if a few conservatives vote to bring down the government - how will that be saving their careers?

Because a lot of MP's (and lots of Conservatives) have businesses that are unrelated to parliament. It's not inconceivable that some of them might vote against the party in order to prevent their multi-million quid business empires being hurt by Brexit.

LHW99

May's "bloody difficult woman" act won't go down well at home anymore.
Question is....will the EU be willing to spend time and capital negotiating with a dead woman walking?

Thing is, coalition government / alliances between parties are not uncommon in Europe / EU. They may have become used to the UK delivering majority rule within a short time of an election, but if (for example) Belgium was the one negotiating to leave, they could have had quite a long time to wait.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9311_Belgian_political_crisis

Rinoa

When May became PM one of her more sensible appointments was putting staunch Leaver David Jones in the Brexit department. The move allayed concerns among Leavers that May would sell out on Brexit. She has now decided to sack Jones, a knowledgable and competent minister, after just 11 months in the job. He has been replaced by Baroness Anelay, a Remainer…

George Bridges, Brexit minister in the Lords, was widely respected by all sides and quickly gained a reputation as one of the most impressive ministers in the government. He has also now left DexEU.

This is all going down really badly among Tory Leavers:

“One suspects the table banging would have gone on for a lot less than 25 seconds had she had the guts to complete her reshuffle before going to the 1922.”
Another notes:

“An almost whole new Brexit team. What was that about needing stability because negotiations started 11 days after the election?”
A pertinent point. Why is May taking the axe to her Brexit team just days before the negotiations start?

https://order-order.com/

The sooner May goes the better.