the snap general election thread

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

Yes I suppose we should count our blessings. Plenty of people in the graveyard would be glad to have these worries.

Thanks, you've really helped put it all into perspective.

Since your perspective is that anything anyone says or does is wrong I doubt anyone will be able to help you.

Thankfully we've all learnt that serial complainers who are great at criticising but useless when it comes to getting off the fence aren't really worth wasting time and effort on.

masterwilde

gotta agree with you there, i actually thought corbyn was ahead until he was pressed. i actually thought after that that labour have just lost the election

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

Since your perspective is that anything anyone says or does is wrong I doubt anyone will be able to help you.

Says the chap who points out dead people would vote Tory.

mrginge wrote: »

Thankfully we've all learnt that serial complainers who are great at criticising but useless when it comes to getting off the fence aren't really worth wasting time and effort on.

I'm flattered you've wasted some of your oh so valuable time to respond.

masterwilde

the reality on nuclear is no one wants to press the button, and no leader should want to press it first.... period

anyone that can easily say yet i will press the button, really you dont want in power as they are saying yes no problem i will kill millions of people no problem.

its a touchy subject, but personally having corbyn come out with his honest approach of talk talk talk and dont let it get that far does work.

but the public as a whole wont think like that, and simply think oh he is weak and scared...cannot elect that.....

masterwilde

i think the idea of regional investment bank for infrastructure, logistics, business growth is great. It could be funded through the BOE at record low rates, that would encourage growth throughout the country, it would certainly help the midlands and the north and this will inturn will profit the investment made by more taxes coming through.

He actually works how a politician should, dont look at just 1-5 years look to support your country's future.

But in saying this, i realise labour will not win the election and therefore its futile

wotsthat

May ahead on the night. She'll be ready for a stiff drink and bed.

kinger101

bobbymotors wrote: »

Well having watched question time, I thought May did reasonably well, perhaps trying too hard to get soundbites in, but ok never the less.

I thought Corbyn was doing ok too, until he was pressed about using Trident, even in retaliation, and fluffed it. audible audience gasps. Not good, people need to feel protected by their government.

Let's face it, no one would win a nuclear war, but it was a bad moment for him.

Here's my prediction for the night

Con 362
lab 212
lib 11
snp 46
ukip 0
green 1
other 18

con majority 74

But who knows?

May certainly did better than she did on Paxman, but I wouldn't say it was a good performance. Had she actually wanted a proper debate, she could have attacked Labour on their greatest weaknesses - their spending record and inability to form a cabinet.

Had the Trident question not come up, Corybn's performance would have been been much better. I don't know why he can't just bring himself to say he might push the button as a final resort. His response on zero-hours contracts was poor as well. He didn't understand that some workers (particularly students) don't want fixed hours.

Given the turnaround in his performance, I'm wondering if he's been taking modafanil. He showed a lot more enthusiasm, and tried to stick to core issues that interest voters.

CKhalvashi

bobbymotors wrote: »

I thought Corbyn was doing ok too, until he was pressed about using Trident, even in retaliation, and fluffed it. audible audience gasps. Not good, people need to feel protected by their government.

Let's face it, no one would win a nuclear war, but it was a bad moment for him.

Mhairi Black had the best answer to that one. Will happily find it if you want

Here's my prediction for the night

Con 362
lab 212
lib 11
snp 46
ukip 0
green 1
other 18

con majority 74

But who knows?

I doubt it.

I personally think they're going to struggle in some areas to get a majority at all. This is going to be partly with Labour in some areas doing nowhere near as bad as the polls would suggest (likely with Lib Dem voters tactically voting to keep the Conservatives out), and probably Labour voters in some areas returning the favour, leading to (I'm not talking all 49 here) some of the losses in 2015 being regained.

I'm also somewhat sceptical of some of the Yougov figures and how they will translate into reality.

In the seat I live (which I accept will remain Conservative) and a seat I've campaigned in (neighbouring), what I've seen on the ground isn't translating into polls.

The neighbouring one is debatable as to what is going to happen on the ground, however on paper will return an increased Con majority. This is boosted by a local party not standing where in the local elections them and the Lib Dems combined took a lot more than the Conservative share of the vote. They are largely supporting the Lib Dems in this one.

To make things even better, UKIP have decided to field a candidate for that seat, which increases everyone else's chances more.

So basically, it depends on how much tactical voting will or won't happen. My first choice of party is the preferred choice to take the seat, I would however hold my nose and vote for Labour if it wasn't the case.

bobbymotors

''I doubt it.

I personally think they're going to struggle in some areas to get a majority at all. This is going to be partly with Labour in some areas doing nowhere near as bad as the polls would suggest''

whats your prediction then?

CKhalvashi

bobbymotors wrote: »

''I doubt it.

I personally think they're going to struggle in some areas to get a majority at all. This is going to be partly with Labour in some areas doing nowhere near as bad as the polls would suggest''

whats your prediction then?

See here:

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Just so that this is on record, I'm predicting a hung Parliament with major Con losses in the SW, and some gains in the North.

I think it's safe to say that this is the first election where noone knows what will actually happen for a very long time (although there are 2 likely scenarios)

I think we're going to end up with a Con minority with somewhere between 310 and 315 seats, with Labour on about 220, Lib Dems 35-40.

I could be wrong (I have been before), but it's just my gut feeling taking into account both what the polls are saying, but also that any swing to anyone will be by no means uniform.

Current thinking is that the LDs won't come as strongly as that, but Labour may or may not make up the difference.

This was written before the local elections and when the Cons were looking extremely healthy polling-wise, however was based on gut feeling at the time.

LD I think we'll see anywhere between 15 and 25, Labour 235-245, taking into account the raw polling.

I have looked at some figures broken down on a constituency level and don't agree with them, but have to an extent taken them at face value in making that decision, with a reasonable adjustment in there.

One example of that is YouGov claiming Richmond Park will be handed back to Zac. I think at the moment that is unlikely.

YouGov currently has Labour on 257 and Lib Dems on 10, so my numbers do roughly stack up when counting both as one unit.

257 Labour, plus 20 Lib Dem, plus 48 SNP = 325, leaving just the Green Party's single seat to make a majority, so this may or may not happen. Either way there are only 10 seats for the opposition to find based on current polling.

All figures can be broken down by constituency here:

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/