the snap general election thread

Fella

Conrad wrote: »

Political Facebook posters in my area are virtually all left wing. A daily drip feed

Agree totally. Offhand I don't know a single person (that I know both in real-life from where I live and on FB) who posts pro-Tory or UKIP stuff. There are countless who post very left-wing stuff, including tons who never mention politics in person.

And yet our town returned a Tory MP by a large majority.

A good example in microcosm of the phenomenon I've mentioned before: Social media skews apparent sentiment way to the left. If all you were ever exposed to was FB you be certain you were living in a world with Miliband as PM & Clinton as president (and firmly in favour of Remain, although there would never have been a referendum).

Social media attracts liberal virtue-signalling on a massive scale. Those on the right tend to just quietly go about the business of voting.

IveSeenTheLight

Filo25 wrote: »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354

31 May update: How close is the gap now?
After their striking seat projection published last night, YouGov has a new poll this evening which has the narrowest gap between the main two parties so far during the campaign. It has the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 39% - their highest rating in any poll since 2014.

Voting Intention: Conservatives 42%, Labour 39% (30-31 May)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354



Voting Intention: Conservatives 42%, Labour 39% (30-31 May)

How the polls arrive at their figures, since you obviously missed it the first time.
Or ignored it?

Those who have been following the polls closely will be confused. Rest assured, those responsible for them are confused too.

http://news.sky.com/story/glory-or-ignominy-for-theresa-may-the-polls-cant-decide-10899757

IveSeenTheLight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

How the polls arrive at their figures, since you obviously missed it the first time.
Or ignored it?

Not ignored, not seen, however as you know I don't place much weighting on polls, but certainly the trend across all polls seems to be in one direction

Fella

Just came off a conf call. Our company is very Global (everybody here would know the name) & on the call we had a few from the UK, several from the US & some from places like Canada & Israel.

Just for fun after the call was over I asked how many of the UK party leaders anybody not UK-based could name.

With the exception of one guy, nobody could name any. The guy who could named May & also asked "if the buffoon who hangs around with Trump is standing?"

So UK politics, not that much of a big deal outside the UK then. And Corbyn, the 2nd-most likely person in the world to be PM next week, totally unheard of.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Not ignored, not seen, however as you know I don't place much weighting on polls, but certainly the trend across all polls seems to be in one direction

As I am frequently informed, the only poll that matters is the one which will take place on June 8th.
Much can (and I'm sure will) happen in the week before then.

setmefree2

westernpromise wrote: »

On another website that I was reading this morning someone worked out that the people Labour wants to target with tax rises, those on over £80k, are only 3% of taxpayers and number only 900,000 people; and if you took every penny over £80k from them, you'd only get £38 billion.

As the current deficit even on Conservative plans is > £50 billion, it is clear that "the rich" don't earn enough to fix the current deficit never mind fund anything else that has been promised on top. You wouldn't ever get £38 billion either, of course, because if you tried to take it all they'd just choose to earn less. It would make no difference to them as they'd be keeping none of it anyway. The same applies to corporation tax of course: the targets would just incorporate elsewhere.

You'd need to move along the Laffer curve, meaning you'd need a much lower rate and thus a much lower income level for it to kick in.

Labour's plans thus can't be funded by income or corporation taxes. So they'd have to levy them on something else. The inescapable logic is that they'll have to start expropriating people.

Labour's plans show that they have no intention of clearing the budget deficit. The IFS said they would increase it in 5 years to just under 5 % - this doesn't include this years tuition fees, or nationalisation and includes large sums from banking (which I think must be RBS).

https://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article/manifesto-analysis-briefing-23-may

The problem with this for me is that just like in 2008 there is absolutely no slack if there is a recession - we will then have an exploding deficit.

However, it seems clear that the voter just wants the government wants to spend and spend, what can you do? At least the Lib Dems are honest when they say that everyone needs to pay more.

setmefree2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

This is crucial for me.
A huge reason for the manifesto was to push through policy they were already targeted for going against the manifesto.

They believed their poll lead and the state of the opposition was enough smoke and mirrors to deflect and push through their policy changes.

The problem is the electorate is a bit smarter than she anticipated and is seeing through the smoke and mirrors

So how do you think we should pay for the NHS and social care? Or do you think we should just borrow a load of money and leave it for the next generation to worry about.

Moby

New Poll in the Evening Standard re. London voting intentions:- The current standing of the parties reflects how London voted in 1997 when Tony Blair won his landslide first victory, according to the YouGov poll of 1,000 Londoners produced for Queen Mary University of London. Labour is on 50 per cent, up from 41 per cent a month ago. The Tories are on 33 per cent, down from 36 in a month. In March the parties were just three points apart, at 37/34. Asked who would make the best Prime Minister, 37 per cent picked Mr Corbyn and 34 per cent Mrs May. A survey taken just after the manifesto launches last month had Mrs May ahead by 38 to 32.

Conrad

masterwilde wrote: »

"The new Prime Minister Theresa May espoused the left in her first speech, with a promise to combat the "burning injustice" in British society and create a union "between all of our citizens" and promising to be an advocate for the "ordinary working-class family" and not just for "privileged few" in the UK. "The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few but by yours. We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. ... When we take the big calls, we'll think not of the powerful, but you. When we pass new laws we'll listen not to the mighty, but to you. When it comes to taxes we'll prioritise not the wealthy but you"

what a load of crap she spouted......why believe her now?

So the Tories lifting millions of low paid out of tax is what, a nothing?


Any fool can promise easy fixes and pennies from heaven, it's just a shame so many fall for it.