the snap general election thread

wotsthat

Fella wrote: »

The strange part is the Labour campaign has been awful. Their manifesto would be ruinously expensive if they even managed to deliver a portion of it, which is about as much as would likely prove possible. They chose to make political capital out of the Manchester atrocity. We've had endless car-crash interviews from virtually every person they've put in front of a microphone, as each in turn has demonstrated that they can't do even basic sums, think on their feet, or sound even remotely convincing.

Yet somehow the Tories have managed to run a campaign that's even less appealing to the public. And their campaign is being run by the usually sure-footed Lynton Crosby.

Perhaps we're witnessing Aboyne:

http://tmoliff.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/aboyne-vb.html

The Tories haven't learnt enough lessons from the brexit campaign.

Take the £350bn for the NHS. I reckon most people realised that was a lie - remain, instead of just dismissing as a lie, tried to argue it which meant..

(a) they had to repeat the claim
(b) they legitimised the claim
(c) they highlighted that EU membership costs were a very big number

Corbyn sought to seek some political capital from the Manchester bombing. I suspect most people realised that but the Tories should've just called him names and moved on. Instead Corbyn's claim was repeated and people, although noting the politicking, probably thought there was some truth to what he said.

setmefree2

Fella wrote: »

The strange part is the Labour campaign has been awful. Their manifesto would be ruinously expensive if they even managed to deliver a portion of it, which is about as much as would likely prove possible. They chose to make political capital out of the Manchester atrocity. We've had endless car-crash interviews from virtually every person they've put in front of a microphone, as each in turn has demonstrated that they can't do even basic sums, think on their feet, or sound even remotely convincing.

Yet somehow the Tories have managed to run a campaign that's even less appealing to the public. And their campaign is being run by the usually sure-footed Lynton Crosby.

Perhaps we're witnessing Aboyne:

http://tmoliff.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/aboyne-vb.html

To be honest - as a Remainer I have spent the last 12 months trying to understand the position of the majority of Brits who voted Brexit - and now this??? What does this say about what people want?

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Is the Tory lead demise a deliberate ploy by very clever strategists running a purposely lack lustre campaign?

No of course not.

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

I agree. Poor effort from the Tories.

The Tory campaign has been an absolute shambles, they came in with this election already in the bag against an utterly unelectable leader of the opposition, and here we are 1 week out where people are nervously talking about the outside possibility of a hung parliament.

I don't think there will be a hung parliament I think the Tories will get the win and maybe even a moderately increased majority but ultimately it will leave Theresa May looking a very diminished figure.

There have been a spectacular number of own goals scored.

What on earth was the point of the pledge for a free vote on fox hunting its toxic even to most Tory voters, and the people who support it are going to vote Tory anyway, it hardly fits into her narrative about helping the Just About Managing group either.

The manifesto was a study in vague waffle, mixed in with some genuinely unpopular policies for the Tories core voters, and then we had the U-turn which wasn't a U-turn, which has all the benefit of making you look weak while not committing to really doing anything about a genuinely unpopular policy, so all of the cost with no upside.

She's hobbled herself with a Chancellor who looks like a dead man walking which doesn't help much for campaigning on economic issues, and to be honest the attack lines on Labour have been lazy and weak, its almost as though they are still stuck in the same mindset they had at the start of the campaign even though the race has changed fundamentally since then.

For someone who somehow built a reputation for being a competent safe pair of hands, it is phenomenally unimpressive, her leadership would probably be under threat if we weren't faced with the imminent prospect of Brexit negotiations as soon as the election ends.

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

Is the Tory lead demise a deliberate ploy by very clever strategists running a purposely lack lustre campaign?


Think about it - you work out you can take a hit on support, just enough to still allow a convincing victory, but not a mega-victory.


This in turn keeps Corbyn in charge of Labour ('our man done good, despite loosing').


This then leads to the big Labour split.


Long term strategy...........

It's also possible that the Tories think that this a worthwhile fight - worth getting a reduced number of seats for - if they do manage to get any sort of majority they will have a mandate to increase NI on the self employed, charge for social care, get rid of the triple lock....not much point in having a majority of 100 if you can't do any of the above because it wasn't in the manifesto...

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

...
Take the £350bn for the NHS. I reckon most people realised that was a lie - remain, instead of just dismissing as a lie, tried to argue it which meant..
...

It was more than a lie. It was distraction politics at it's finest.

Osborne, guided by Hamish I guess, had come out with these detailed apocalyptic predictions of national losses to every individual family, down to the nearest hundred pounds, seeing way out into the future.

Switching to the £350m (not bn, btw) changed the discussion to a bicker fest. It was tactics suiting BoJo and friends.

If Osborne had not been so high n mighty / arrogant, I think the discussion could have taken a different path.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

I reiterate though - the sky won't fall in if the LP wins

I think we would see considerable anger amongst quite gullible young people that expected to get a house under him. Remember how pro-refugee he is.


You will see word ripple across the world that this new Jesus soft touch bloke is running Britain. They will very quickly learn they can claim asylum for things dear to the left such as inability to express ones gender fluid nature (one example of many ways to get into the benefits paradise subsidised housing UK).


This is on top of a heavily pro immigration sentiment in the LP.


People expecting life to change under Labour will be in for quite a shock.


I see the reality of mass immigration on the front line here, it's real, it has real effects, and these effects will be far greater under Labour.


My best Man is a Muslim btw - but I do think there's is nothing racist in a sensible Canadian style immigration system.

setmefree2

kabayiri wrote: »

All together now :
*Our manifesto is fully costed* !!

That's nice then. Here's some other things Labour "fully costed" :

- Olympics : ('costed' : £2.3bn ; 'actual' £12bn+)
- PFI refuelling tanker : ('costed' : £1.5bn ; 'actual' £10bn+)
- NHS IT : ('costed' : £3bn ; 'actual' £10bn+)

Hmm, I'm struggling with this 'costed' idea, especially when it's delivered by a bunch of charlatans with an appalling track record.

Using a 'costed'/'actual' ratio of 1:4 would make the £250bn investment Corbyn plans turn into an actual of £1,000,000,000,000. Luvvly jubbly (if you're a banker trading in debt)

The 11 million for this years tuition fees is not fully costed.

The IFS has the LP's plans £20 billion adrift pa.

So that's £30 billion right there.

The LP plans also seem to include large amounts from banks - I haven't discovered what this is - but my best guess is it's something to do with RBS. So they seem to be banking on money from RBS.

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

To be honest - as a Remainer I have spent the last 12 months trying to understand the position of the majority of Brits who voted Brexit - and now this??? What does this say about what people want?

Split Remain/Leave family here.

Which, I reckon, is the only honest position.

The EU is not a hotbed of evil, but neither has it been universally good for all of the UK. Sending back some of our own money to tart up a library in North Wales is not going to transform it. 40 years of EU and Wales is one of the poorest regions in Europe.

The EU *has* changed though, and I have no doubt it will continue to change. Where is it heading? Ask Merkel.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

My best Man is a Muslim btw -

I have a black friend.