the snap general election thread

setmefree2

Recommended viewing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08twb89

Institute of Fiscal Studies - Manifesto Analysis

Election 2017
Recorded coverage of an event hosted by the Institute of Fiscal Studies assessing the Labour and Conservative general election 2017 party manifestos, from Friday 26 May.

Also here

https://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article/manifesto-analysis-briefing-23-may

setmefree2

Analysis here

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Presentations/Carl%20Emmerson%2C%202017%20General%20Election%2C% 20manifesto%20analysis.pdf

See page 15 - The budget deficit under LP will be £58 billion pa or 4.5% of GDP in 2012-22 (and only if it receives money back from Nationalized Banks.)

The LP keeps debt at 85% plus of GDP.

Just saying.

People should know what they are voting for.

Remember this there is no scope under LP plans for stimulus in the event of another recession if we are already racking up debt at that rate.....or I guess there is and we will back up to budget deficits of £150 billion pa.

And lets be honest this has got to be a best case scenario?

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

I suppose its hard for a tory to understand that sometimes people vote for a party that isnt going to be of much benefit for their own finances.

What like pensioners?

It's really hard for me to understand how people keep voting for a party that is ruinous for the country's finances but hey ho - people keep doing it.

Looks like it's 5 more years of us living "like it's 1999"....followed by the austerity hangover years...

Thrugelmir

setmefree2 wrote: »

What like pensioners?

Most people at some point in their lives become one though. By 2030, average age of an adult in the UK is going to be around 50. The Western world faces the same challenges.

Fella

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Given the severity of the current situation I would say most likely at work.

The timing and nature of Corbyn's comments. May well come back to haunt him. Worth remembering that Corbyn has opposed every single piece of anti-terrorism legislation brought before Parliament. Going to alienate himself from many people.

I must admit something doesn't strike me as kosher about the apparent swing in the polls. Yes the Tory manifesto was poor, but nothing like so poor as to merit the huge turnaround in support we're being led to believe. Corbyn has been in charge of Labour for ages & he's been consistently unpopular with everybody outside Momentum throughout that time. Disastrous results in by-elections & local elections (only a couple of weeks ago) confirm this.

I'm don't have THAT much faith in the general public but I find it somewhat hard to believe that millions of people have suddenly have changed their opinion based on Corbyn promising them the moon on a stick in his manifesto.

There are several more likely alternatives IMO. I wonder if what we're seeing is disgruntled tory voters (most especially pensioners) sending a message in protest at their manifesto.

Time will tell.

Fella

I may often come across as anti-corbyn. That's because I am

I think he's a disgusting excuse for a person.

He does however, have his fans on here. I wonder how they feel about him accepting £5,000 a pop to appear on Iranian state TV (including an appearance months after said channel had been banned by OfCom for airing a forced confession (nothing like a bit of torture eh lads?))

This is a matter of public record (Corbyn lists the payments in his HoC register of interests). it's also not disputed by Corbyn's team, who's official response is "We don't comment on historical matters" They missed out the rest of that sentence, which would be "as they prove what a scumbag Corbyn is & we're desperately trying to pretend he's a kindly old headmaster type".


http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeremy-corbyn-paid-iran-press-tv-tortured-journalist-2016-6

Thrugelmir

What evidence is there that people vote in the same manner as they answer in a poll? A couple of staunch labour voters I know. Could never bring themselves to vote for Corbyn. As he doesn't represent their view of the Labour party. As you say it might be a message to May to get back on track.

mark5

Arklight wrote: »

If they changed their policies completely, and their MPs, and most of their supporters. Then yes, in a heart beat.

But what of Scotland? Is the Jez Effect taking votes from the SNP? Are THEY being wooed back as are the Welsh?

The Welsh know what is good for them.

How do the Welsh know what's good for them?

We constantly vote labour and labour does little for Wales!

Fella

Excellent article that sums it up better than I could:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/jeremy-corbyn-politicising-islamist-murder/

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What evidence is there that people vote in the same manner as they answer in a poll? A couple of staunch labour voters I know. Could never bring themselves to vote for Corbyn. As he doesn't represent their view of the Labour party. As you say it might be a message to May to get back on track.

Well, I lie to pollsters for one.

I think giving pollsters airtime increases the chances of voters in specific areas/demographics being treated like statistical entries in a campaign database.