Here's why I don't think immigration will fall following Brexit

MacMickster

Doshwaster wrote: »

Yes, that was exactly my point. Indeed, unemployed people in Grimsby don't even want to fillet fish in Grimsby for £7.30 an hour.

So maybe the unemployed in Grimsby need to be "persuaded" via the benefits system to fillet fish.

If there are not enough unemployed in the area then employers will have to incentivise others from around the UK to do the job via higher wages.

I certainly don't want to see a reduction in overall immigration, but want to see more highly skilled immigrants rather than those who are unskilled but willing to work for less than UK nationals.

always_sunny

Doshwaster wrote: »

If you were out of work would you be willing to move to Grimsby to fillet fish in the interests of the economy?

Honestly, yes I would, if that was my only option to provide for myself.
I haven't filleted fish in the past (as in that job) because there was no fish to fillet but I did work on meagre wages like that before as first jobs. If I had to wait tables, wash pots, clean, etc of course I would.

I don't know how benefits work, never use them, culturally (as expat) using benefits would be the last thing to cross my mind; but at £7.50/hour x 37.5 (week) is around £280, Job Seeker Allowance is up to £73.10. I guess there is rent assistance and other allowances here and there?
Even if all benefits combined would the same of the weekly wage, I would still rather work cause I know I can get out of that and build my income.

I think benefits suck the will out of people to do those jobs when in fact are very good to build character.

Doshwaster

MacMickster wrote: »

So maybe the unemployed in Grimsby need to be "persuaded" via the benefits system to fillet fish.

If there are not enough unemployed in the area then employers will have to incentivise others from around the UK to do the job via higher wages.

That may happen but there will come a point when it is more economical for the work, wherever possible, to be done elsewhere. Of course you can't offshore fruit and veg picking but you could move more of the processing and manufacturing aboard.

Or we will just see a rise in the number of temporary work visas being issued - and because call countries will be treated the same, the workers could equally come from India, Pakistan or Morocco rather than Poland and Romania.

MacMickster wrote: »

I certainly don't want to see a reduction in overall immigration, but want to see more highly skilled immigrants rather than those who are unskilled but willing to work for less than UK nationals.

Or maybe we should be looking at doing the opposite by having enough high skilled workers of our own and then importing people do do the unskilled work. Why should graduates face competition from other countries but office cleaners be protected?

LHW99

Or maybe we should be looking at doing the opposite by having enough high skilled workers of our own and then importing people do do the unskilled work.

Or looking to use more technology for unskilled jobs. There is already an amount of mechanisation within the fruit and veg industry. Perhaps that's where more robots could be employed - and more UK workers could become skilled in robotic engineering to keep them working.

pioneer22

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Outside of the EU the UK is free to set whatever criteria it wishes. May not be instantly right. But at least the matter can be controlled.

Why haven't they then? When May announces her immigration target and she could cut it down why didn't she?

Reality as I see it is we can't afford to not have migration.

lisyloo

always_sunny wrote: »

Honestly, yes I would, if that was my only option to provide for myself.
I haven't filleted fish in the past (as in that job) because there was no fish to fillet but I did work on meagre wages like that before as first jobs. If I had to wait tables, wash pots, clean, etc of course I would.

I admire you're work ethic.
Let's put aside the !!!!less for a moment.
What if you were a single parent and the child care costs were prohibitive?
What if you lived in council accommodation and didn't want to move because you cared for elderly parents next door or didn't want to lose the home or couldn't afford the transport?

I am not denying there are some lazy people out there and not trying to make excuses, just saying that life isn't always that simple for everyone.
Immigrants might have a better work ethic but also as a population they tend to be unencumbered by the issues I've mentioned as iits the fit young healthy and unencumbered who come to our shores.

always_sunny

lisyloo wrote: »

I admire you're work ethic.
Let's put aside the !!!!less for a moment.
What if you were a single parent and the child care costs were prohibitive?
What if you lived in council accommodation and didn't want to move because you cared for elderly parents next door or didn't want to lose the home or couldn't afford the transport?

I am not denying there are some lazy people out there and not trying to make excuses, just saying that life isn't always that simple for everyone.
Immigrants might have a better work ethic but also as a population they tend to be unencumbered by the issues I've mentioned as iits the fit young healthy and unencumbered who come to our shores.

Let's put the complexity aside, cause really it's pretty easy, if there was no financial aid of any kind, what would these people (scenarios above) do? If it was either do that low paid job or not eat? I think they would move in the same way as folks from Romania or Bulgaria do coming here.

But why do all of that when there is a safety net? So that's the problem here, that folks want their cake and eat it too (no immigration but low paid jobs still done) and it is going to be really hard to achieve.

I would not have children if I couldn't support them, why would you? I like to prepare for things, but that's me, I grew up without knowing the concept of benefits so I don't know otherwise. The scenarios above seem very silly to me because why would people get themselves in that position? I think for most migrants coming here, benefits are not the goal, but if they're entitled of course they would take them.

Life is really that simple, making it complex is a luxury and folks without an income are not in that position, they are gambling with someone else money.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MacMickster wrote: »

If there are not enough unemployed in the area then employers will have to incentivise others from around the UK to do the job via higher wages.

The problem with that is it also drives up costs for everyone else.

If you're a teacher or council worker in Manchester your wages won't rise just because the fish processor in Grimsby has to now pay more for his labour. But the price of your fish will go up.

So you'll either eat less fish and the people in Grimsby will lose or you'll eat the same amount of fish at a higher cost but have less to spend on other things so some other people will lose.

Either way someone loses.

Driving up production costs through creating artificial labour shortages in some parts of the economy is a zero sum game. It does not make society wealthier. It does not even make the people it's supposed to help wealthier because there will quickly be less paid work for them to do as people elsewhere buy less of the now more expensive products they produce.

Even the Tories know this which is why both Rudd and Davis have said in the last week they don't expect to see immigration falling significantly after Brexit.

MacMickster wrote: »

So maybe the unemployed in Grimsby need to be "persuaded" via the benefits system to fillet fish.

We could do that today as part of the EU.

Yet the UK chooses not to as it's politically too difficult.

Leaving the EU won't change the politics of it - albeit I'll admit it may make us collectively so much poorer the government of the day is forced into drastic action.

I certainly don't want to see a reduction in overall immigration, but want to see more highly skilled immigrants

EU migrants are already on average better educated and more highly skilled than the native born - if we reduce the flow of them then we reduce the flow of skilled and educated people into our economy - which is unlikely to be to our benefit.

rather than those who are unskilled but willing to work for less than UK nationals.

There's just no evidence of this happening on any kind of scale - all the research suggests any negative impact on UK wages is tiny (about a penny an hour) and limited to the small minority of people on minimum wage or slightly above it.

Whereas for most people, on average, EU migration has actually increased wages for the native born by helping the economy grow.

Redknapps_Dog

I never for one minute thought it would fall post brexit, the reality is we need migration.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Immigration will not dramatically fall after Brexit, says Amber Rudd.

UK not about to 'shut the door' on low-skilled EU migrants, says David Davis

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/26/immigration-will-not-dramatically-fall-after-brexit-says-amber-rudd