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Here's why I don't think immigration will fall following Brexit
pioneer22
Posts: 523 Forumite
The government want to get immigration down to 100,000 a year I think that target is way off the mark and people who voted Brexit to curb immigration are in for a huge shock.
Ending June 16 net migration was 325,000 all in.
189,000 are from the EU
196,000 are from outside the EU (whom we have control over don't forget)
189,000
> 41% are here to study 77,000
> The uk needs up to 90,000 seasonal workers fruit pickers etc
That's 22,000 roughly to reduce, that includes EU migrants who have work to come to, unemployed EU migrants and families. Even if we reduced the number of seasonal workers by half its still what 100,000 eu migrants per year.
Love to hear thoughts of people who voted for a reduction in immigration. I can't see how these numbers lie.
EDIT: I assume we will need more seasonal fruit/veg pickers as we will need to rely on our home grown produce.
Ending June 16 net migration was 325,000 all in.
189,000 are from the EU
196,000 are from outside the EU (whom we have control over don't forget)
189,000
> 41% are here to study 77,000
> The uk needs up to 90,000 seasonal workers fruit pickers etc
That's 22,000 roughly to reduce, that includes EU migrants who have work to come to, unemployed EU migrants and families. Even if we reduced the number of seasonal workers by half its still what 100,000 eu migrants per year.
Love to hear thoughts of people who voted for a reduction in immigration. I can't see how these numbers lie.
EDIT: I assume we will need more seasonal fruit/veg pickers as we will need to rely on our home grown produce.
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Comments
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I voted leave and have posted many times that those who think there will be a large reduction in migration are going to be disappointed. I'm pro-immigration.
As your figures show the bits of immigration that we can control we do not, which implies that really there is no political will to cut it significantly whatever the rhetoric may be.“I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0 -
The main reason immigration won't fall post Brexit is that we actually need immigration. Businesses will complain about any caps and push for exceptions. Industry will suffer, NHS will suffer, etc.0
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Love to hear thoughts of people who voted for a reduction in immigration. I can't see how these numbers lie.
Hi.
What time frame are we talking about here?
Are you looking for people who voted for a reduction in the next 12 months?
Or five years?
Or ten?
How big a reduction are you thinking these people voted for?
Few thousand?
10%?
50%?0 -
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I agree. The only way we'll see a big drop in net immigration is if where have an economic crash - and that would mostly be driven by people moving abroad to work. Otherwise, I can't see immigration falling significantly - or at all.
A growing economy will always create extra demand for jobs and the government will be under pressure from employers to grant as many work visas as are needed.
Are unemployed people in London, Sunderland and Stoke really doing to be willing to move to Boston to pick fruit and veg or Grimsby to fillet fish?0 -
10 years... I dunno
10,000?
Ok.
Well I'm your man then. I think that introducing managed controls will allows us to reduce (if we want to of course) immigration by more than 10,000 people within 10 years.
Controversial stuff granted, but what the hell.
What would you like to know?0 -
Doshwaster wrote: »Are unemployed people in London, Sunderland and Stoke really doing to be willing to move to Boston to pick fruit and veg or Grimsby to fillet fish?
Does the benefits system handle seasonal labourers? i.e. work for 4 months, sign on for 8. Logically it's not really any different from working a 10 hour week when extrapolated out over the tax year.0 -
Ok.
Well I'm your man then. I think that introducing managed controls will allows us to reduce (if we want to of course) immigration by more than 10,000 people within 10 years.
Controversial stuff granted, but what the hell.
What would you like to know?
How if we have 77,000 students a year from the EU.
And we will need overseas Doctors/Nurses. Its an impossible task.0 -
Does the benefits system handle seasonal labourers? i.e. work for 4 months, sign on for 8. Logically it's not really any different from working a 10 hour week when extrapolated out over the tax year.
Doshwaters point, is that the unemployed people in Stoke aren't going to move to Grimsby to fillet fish for 7.30 an hour for the summer.
The seasonal flexible workforce is exactly that, flexible.0 -
How if we have 77,000 students a year from the EU.
And we will need overseas Doctors/Nurses. Its an impossible task.
I am very confident that in 10 years time we will have been able to invest significantly enough to train an additional 10,000 nurses (for example).
We will therefore not need to import said labour requirements from elsewhere.
I don't see this as being impossible in the slightest.0
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