Here's why I don't think immigration will fall following Brexit

pioneer22

mrginge wrote: »

I am very confident that in 10 years time we will have been able to invest significantly enough to train an additional 10,000 nurses (for example).

We will therefore not need to import said labour requirements from elsewhere.

I don't see this as being impossible in the slightest.

You skipped my point about education they pay serious $$$ to learn here, anyway healthcare is my arena. Currently there aren't enough training posts to fill demand.

19% of training places have been cut for nurses
60% of newly qualified nurses actually end up working in the NHS thats a huge number of attrition.

And what about seasonal labour? A business can't wait 10 years for someone to be trained when it needs staff now.

always_sunny

The main reason for immigration to fall would be following a complete overall change to the benefit system for everybody (migrants and indigenous) becoming strictly contributive. Until then, there is little incentive to curb migration.

mrginge

pioneer22 wrote: »

You skipped my point about education they pay serious $$$ to learn here, anyway healthcare is my arena. Currently there aren't enough training posts to fill demand.

19% of training places have been cut for nurses
60% of newly qualified nurses actually end up working in the NHS thats a huge number of attrition.

And what about seasonal labour? A business can't wait 10 years for someone to be trained when it needs staff now.

Sorry mate, can't help you on that one.
I've given you my thoughts on whether it's feasible to reduce immigration by 10,000 in ten years.

Perhaps someone who thinks immigration will be cut to zero within six months of leaving the EU will be along soon to give you the argument you appear to be looking for.

kabayiri

We could get tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands, of cheap labour here after Brexit if we wanted.

We wouldn't even have to offer them residency rights.

The world is awash with cheap labour, and technology will only make this situation worse.

Why pay NMW for a cleaner when you can get the same job done for less? When there's a downturn you let them all return home.

Doshwaster

pioneer22 wrote: »

Doshwaters point, is that the unemployed people in Stoke aren't going to move to Grimsby to fillet fish for 7.30 an hour for the summer.

The seasonal flexible workforce is exactly that, flexible.

Yes, that was exactly my point. Indeed, unemployed people in Grimsby don't even want to fillet fish in Grimsby for £7.30 an hour.

The UK economy has been one of the best in Europe at job creation over the past 10 years. Unfortunately, the majority of new jobs (especially the higher paid ones) aren't in areas of high unemployment. So while London, Cambridge, Oxford, Reading etc are booming and have very low unemployment, places like Stoke and Sunderland are still suffering from the effects of the economic crash.

always_sunny

Doshwaster wrote: »

Yes, that was exactly my point. Indeed, unemployed people in Grimsby don't even want to fillet fish in Grimsby for £7.30 an hour.

The UK economy has been one of the best in Europe at job creation over the past 10 years. Unfortunately, the majority of new jobs (especially the higher paid ones) aren't in areas of high unemployment. So while London, Cambridge, Oxford, Reading etc are booming and have very low unemployment, places like Stoke and Sunderland are still suffering from the effects of the economic crash.

But someone still has to fillet that fish and that's critical to the economy as well.

kabayiri

Doshwaster wrote: »

...
The UK economy has been one of the best in Europe at job creation over the past 10 years. Unfortunately, the majority of new jobs (especially the higher paid ones) aren't in areas of high unemployment. So while London, Cambridge, Oxford, Reading etc are booming and have very low unemployment, places like Stoke and Sunderland are still suffering from the effects of the economic crash.

Stoke is stuffed because too many of us don't value what the good people of Stoke produced.

Why buy Royal Doulton when you can get something cheap in Ikea that was made in some industrial complex in China.

It predates the GFC.

Doshwaster

always_sunny wrote: »

But someone still has to fillet that fish and that's critical to the economy as well.

If you were out of work would you be willing to move to Grimsby to fillet fish in the interests of the economy?

Of course, "someone" has to do it but if the employers can't find people locally (or even nationally) wanting to do it then you can't blame them for looking abroad.

gfplux

It is a very complex subject with many things acting a levers such as...
Will immigrants/foreigners feel welcome or be welcome.
With the pound much lower in value working in Britain is less attractive.
Seasonal workers might go elsewhere in Europe.
With no ID cards in Britain immigrants/foreigners could work in the black economy.
It will take a clever Government to encourage workers Britain needs and discourage the unwanted. They have in the past managed the former and failed badly at the latter.

Thrugelmir

pioneer22 wrote: »

The government want to get immigration down to 100,000 a year I think that target is way off the mark and people who voted Brexit to curb immigration are in for a huge shock.

Outside of the EU the UK is free to set whatever criteria it wishes. May not be instantly right. But at least the matter can be controlled.