The finances of an Independent Scotland.

TrickyTree83

Moby wrote: »

The thing you fail to realise time and time again is that economics is only part of the picture regarding the fervour for Scottish independence. Think of it like this....people voted for Brexit for all sorts of reasons.....if they had voted on economics alone surely we would never have given up our tarrif free access to a huge market on our doorstep. People cite all sorts of reasons.....taking back control etc etc....think of Scottish independence in the same way....and you'll understand it better. Also look at history....a similar sized country.....Ireland! Very poor economically....Ireland still fought their way to independence in 1920! Nationalism doesn't just apply to English self interest re. Europe....It's just as powerful a force promoting the energy behind Scottish independence from England. Many people in Scotland look on their independence the same way as English people see Brexit.....we'll make it work despite the economics because our independence is the most important thing. Of course their view of brexit will only increase this aspiration.

Except it's not the same is it.

Declining trade between the UK and the EU, hampered trade deals by EU countries with vested interests. Whereas Scottish trade within the UK is increasing year on year faster than with any other partner.Yes, the EU is big and important but it's not increasing the amount of trade and is not proportionally our largest amount of trade. It's sensible to try to limit the amount of trade that is lost by striking a deal, sensible for all concerned.

I asked for the positive economic arguments for iScotland in a Scottish economics thread on an economics forum. Not feelings about painting your face blue or Catholicism versus Protestantism.

Shakethedisease

Moto2 wrote: »

The SNP won't call an unofficial referendum.

If they did, the 'no' vote would encourage people not to vote as it wouldn't be sanctioned, the yes vote would do the opposite.
If the 'yes' vote got the most crosses on the paper in such a vote, it could be rightly claimed to be severely flawed and no indication of the electorate's wishes. For an unofficial referendum to have any credibility, it must have both sides in agreement to hold it in the first place.
If the SNP want a referendum, they'll have to persuade the UK government and that isn't going to happen in the next couple of years.

They can just dissolve the Scottish govt in that case and call an election with all SNP and Green MSP's standing on an explicit independence mandate. There are ways and means. Sturgeon will ask for a referendum though first and at the end of the day if a majority in Scotland at some point in the next few years want to leave the UK. There's very little point in trying to stop the inevitable, 'will of the people' and all that will always out.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

It might come down to horse trading in the end.

The EU won't scupper a potential deal just to gain Scotland as a new member.

You're just not that big or an important an economy in the greater scheme of things. There might be objections from existing EU members to Scottish fast track entry too.

Ultimately, both the EU and May hold the cards. Only the UK negotiators and the EU negotiators can determine what kind of Brexit we have.

It's actually Sturgeon's plan to keep Scotland in the Single Market and the UK they're talking about. They want it taken seriously during Brexit negotiations because it also might be a potential way forward for NI and Gibraltar also.

BRUSSELS is ready to do a separate Brexit deal with Scotland, according to leaked European Parliament negotiating documents. In a confidential report, seen by The National, senior EU figures say they’re ready to explore how to make the Scottish Government’s proposals for a differential Norwegian style post-Brexit model work.
The only stumbling block for Scotland’s future relationship with Europe is Prime Minister Theresa May.


In a report sent to the Chair of the Conference of Committee Chairs, which will form the basis of the parliament’s negotiating position after the UK Government trigger Article 50, AFCO say the EU’s institutions, such as the European council, and the commission, “should be prepared” to deal with Scotland.
The report reads: “There are discussions in those territories [Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gilbraltar] regarding the possibility of obtaining differentiated status as compared to the rest of the UK in the withdrawal process.

Regarding Scotland in particular, the analysis says the “different position of that devolved territory and of the UK Government regarding the participation in the single market as well as their approach to the free movement of citizens” should be explored and the possibility of “whether differentiations could be envisaged in the current constitutional and institutional set up of the Union should thus be addressed.”
In a footnote, it says: “It should be noted that Scotland voted 62 per cent to 38 per cent with a majority for Remain in all its council areas”.

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15098461.Europe_is_willing_to_consider_a_special_deal_to_keep_Scotland_in_the_single_market__leaked_report_shows/


Full article at link if you can read it. But the EU and Holyrood are putting the ball in May's court.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Except it's not the same is it.

Declining trade between the UK and the EU, hampered trade deals by EU countries with vested interests. Whereas Scottish trade within the UK is increasing year on year faster than with any other partner.Yes, the EU is big and important but it's not increasing the amount of trade and is not proportionally our largest amount of trade. It's sensible to try to limit the amount of trade that is lost by striking a deal, sensible for all concerned.

I asked for the positive economic arguments for iScotland in a Scottish economics thread on an economics forum. Not feelings about painting your face blue or Catholicism versus Protestantism.

Try this one. Should give you plenty to moan about. It's in sketchy draft mode and from a left leaning source, but it's a serious attempt at what you're asking for. You won't get anything from the SNP for a while yet. The Growth Commission is still to report.

Given this, The White Paper Version 1.0 contains four sections: - Process and Structures: This section looks at the means by which, after a vote for independence, an interim governance period would work to establish the structures of a new Scottish state and the processes by which this would be done.

- Key Institutions of an Independent Scotland: The establishing of government institutions each require their own specific strategy and approach. 21 separate governmental institutions are looked at in this section, everything from a Scottish Central Bank to an international consular network to a media regulator.

- Negotiations: In establishing an independent Scottish state, negotiations with international governance institutions, including the rest of UK (rUK), will be necessary. This section therefore covers negotiating an allocation of debts and assets with rUK, EU membership negotiations, what international institutions to be part of and what Treaties to sign-up to.

- Budget, finance and borrowing: This section looks at how an independent Scotland will finance itself, examining the issue of borrowing and liquidity, the National Debt and a one year annual budget. Estimates are given for the national debt and a default one year budget.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10092/white-paper-project-version-10

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Try this one. Should give you plenty to moan about. It's in sketchy draft mode and from a left leaning source, but it's a serious attempt at what you're asking for. You won't get anything from the SNP for a while yet. The Growth Commission is still to report.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10092/white-paper-project-version-10

Having quickly gone over that - again as it's the 2nd time you've posted it - to me it looks very much like increased costs across the board. Even the very generous calculations on deficit > GDP are higher than the Scottish government currently benefit from as being part of the UK.

So where are the positives?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Having quickly gone over that - again as it's the 2nd time you've posted it - to me it looks very much like increased costs across the board. Even the very generous calculations on deficit > GDP are higher than the Scottish government currently benefit from as being part of the UK.

So where are the positives?

No I haven't posted it before, it was only released a few weeks ago. I have posted their currency paper though on the other thread.

As for positives, why don't you pick a bit that concerns you and critique it for us ? Since you want to concentrate on pure economics, then here's your chance. Again though I have to stress this isn't anything to do with the SNP just in case anyone gets carried away thinking it is.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No I haven't posted it before, it was only released a few weeks ago. I have posted their currency paper though on the other thread.

As for positives, why don't you pick a bit that concerns you and critique it for us ? Since you want to concentrate on pure economics, then here's your chance. Again though I have to stress this isn't anything to do with the SNP just in case anyone gets carried away thinking it is.

I gave a list a couple of pages ago regarding concerns people should have regarding independence, in fact some of them are documented in this paper you linked to, iirc they are somewhere in the first couple of pages.

Moby

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Except it's not the same is it.

Declining trade between the UK and the EU, hampered trade deals by EU countries with vested interests. Whereas Scottish trade within the UK is increasing year on year faster than with any other partner.Yes, the EU is big and important but it's not increasing the amount of trade and is not proportionally our largest amount of trade. It's sensible to try to limit the amount of trade that is lost by striking a deal, sensible for all concerned.

Splitting hairs...changes nothing in the point I made!

I asked for the positive economic arguments for iScotland in a Scottish economics thread on an economics forum. Not feelings about painting your face blue or Catholicism versus Protestantism

.
What you asked for was not going to help your understanding. I was assisting you to see beyond your narrow perspective. Always happy to help.;)

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Try this one...

Read it. It's hoot.

But even they have to put in £3.5bn worth of tax increases in year one to get the deficit down to 5.54%.

See, told you so.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...You won't get anything from the SNP for a while yet...

I think you miss the point of this forum, and particularly this thread. No one expects the SNP to post its answer to the question raised in the OP. The idea is that you post your answer.

And if you don't know the answer, won't it be a great time saver if you just say so, and move on. Then you will have more time to devote to your hobby of reading nonsense tweets on twitter.:)

P.S. You won't get anything from the SNP at all. They're not going to start spelling out the extent of the tax increases and/or spending cuts neccessary to reduce that deficit. :rotfl:

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Read it. It's hoot.

But even they have to put in £3.5bn worth of tax increases in year one to get the deficit down to 5.54%.

See, told you so.:)



I think you miss the point of this forum, and particularly this thread. No one expects the SNP to post its answer to the question raised in the OP. The idea is that you post your answer.

And if you don't know the answer, won't it be a great time saver if you just say so, and move on. Then you will have more time to devote to your hobby of reading nonsense tweets on twitter.:)

P.S. You won't get anything from the SNP at all. They're not going to start spelling out the extent of the tax increases and/or spending cuts neccessary to reduce that deficit. :rotfl:

No it's a debate forum. We post opinion. Tricky asked for a positive economic case for an independent Scotland. So I gave him one to moan about, and you too. And I did say moan when I posted it for a reason. :A

Feel free to post your own opinion on the actual link presented to you in this debate forum. I might read it, but I may or may not agree with your opinion since we are debating issues from opposite ends of the debate. The link provided is for your own perusal and discussion so feel free.

My hobbies involve rowing, crossfit, weightlifting, reading and the odd box set. As well as five children and a grandchild. I have plenty of things to do as well as twitter. And at least I'm not on here insulting complete strangers.