The finances of an Independent Scotland.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Because it's a negotiation. After 2 years the UK exits. If no agreement can be reached on certain topics that's just tough, for both sides.

This is right. Also, we should throw in typical EU timing, also known as nearly 2 years of posturing/lack of consensus/mixed messages followed by a final few weeks driven by a need to come up with a 11th hour deal.

The SNP will run out of time. PM May will have nothing to lose by denying the SNP a referendum, because Scotland will leave anyway at some point (or so we are frequently told here).

westernpromise

InshAllah Scotland leaves.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Because I read endless posts here and otherwise about how the rest of the UK should get a vote too as it will affect them. They never say how it will affect them, and we never ever hear anything about how Scotland leaving will affect the UK. Yet we discuss even the slightest minute detail, even down what TV programmes an independent Scotland would have access to ( during the last ref ). It's totally bizarre. As if Scotland leaving the UK would cause absolute earthquakes of economic and social chaos north of the border. While England just carries on, everything's great out of the Single Market, Customs union, the EU and if Scotland goes independent also loses 9% of the UK population with all that goes with it. Does this sound likely to you ?

Economics are very difficult to work out too since they all tend to be reported in 'Scotland, Wales, NI and UK terms. Even the trade between Scotland rUK is questionable due to either companies being unable to distinguish between what is or isn't Scotland -> rUK and vice versa. Or their reports are covered UK wide so they guesstimate.

Also just for referenence on threads like these fyi, most of us up here think the SNP won't last very long at all as a party after independence. So predicting everything as SNP led after independence for decades is entirely the wrong approach ( and this is the wrong thread anyway for that discussion ).

Are you really going back to saying they're not accurate?

Even if they're at best 50% accurate it's still dire for iscotland. Why can't you guys just admit that? Hamish has, he wants to be poorer and in the EU.

TrickyTree83

westernpromise wrote: »

InshAllah Scotland leaves.

I hope not, I actually care about our British brothers and sisters up there. We're all one people and have been for centuries of shared heritage. These lot only want you to believe they're different from the rest of us.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

That's right shakey. Absolutely right.

Wait and see lol.

I actually cannot wait for the day that the SNP block the great repeal bill. Although I doubt even they are that stupid.
Hardcore Twitter nationalists though, well that's a different matter...

I note you still have no comment on the SNPs desire for a failed negotiation.

Yes the SNP, the Greens and most of the Scottish Labour party will block the Great Repeal Bill. Westminster will have to override Holyrood. As for a desire to fail in negotiations with the EU. We'll see, I don't think even the SNP thought May would come out of the Single Market etc.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

The SNP will run out of time. PM May will have nothing to lose by denying the SNP a referendum, because Scotland will leave anyway at some point (or so we are frequently told here).

...Or maybe they won't run out of time ?



Surely both the EU and Holyrood know that timing will be a factor and might take pre-emptive steps to address it should that be the case ? The story isn't online yet, and I imagine it's not as dramatic as it sounds. But nonetheless lots of 'leaks' lately.

May will possibly deny a referendum. But there might be little point in the delay other than to inadvertently boost independence support further. She should be careful there.

antrobus

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Are you really going back to saying they're not accurate? ...

That's Shakey's usual repsonse. Any bit of evidence they don't like is simply dismissed. Polls are "dodgy", official national statistics are "questionable".

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

..Even if they're at best 50% accurate it's still dire for iscotland. Why can't you guys just admit that? Hamish has, he wants to be poorer and in the EU.

Yes, at least he has recognised that there is (a) a problem, and that (b) that the solution will require a certain amount of pain.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Maybe I should start a thread called 'The finances of an independent and out of the Single Market England and Wales' ? Do you think England and Wales without Scotland and possibly NI, and out of the EU is going to be a walk in the park ?

Short thread. Easy answer. The finances England and Wales (with or without NI) but without Scotland will be better off to the guaranteed tune of £8.5bn a year.

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

The red line is crossed, why has the referendum not been called?

Because it would be illegal for the Scottish government to use taxpayers' money on a referendum and probably to use the electoral roll too.

This is what is happening to the bloke that called an independence referendum in Catalonia after the constitutional court ruled the vote illegal:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/06/former-catalan-pm-defends-democratic-independence-vote-first-day-trial

Turnout for the vote was pretty low, probably as a result of the illegality of it although its unofficial nature and volunteer staffing may have led to some chaotic events at polling stations I guess.

The fact is that for all her bluster, Sturgeon can't call a vote on Scottish independence, all she can do is ask the government of the day to call one.

Moby

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...Or maybe they won't run out of time ?



Surely both the EU and Holyrood know that timing will be a factor and might take pre-emptive steps to address it should that be the case ? The story isn't online yet, and I imagine it's not as dramatic as it sounds. But nonetheless lots of 'leaks' lately.

May will possibly deny a referendum. But there might be little point in the delay other than to inadvertently boost independence support further. She should be careful there.

That would be a good negotiating tactic by the EU team!

Moto2

The SNP won't call an unofficial referendum.

If they did, the 'no' vote would encourage people not to vote as it wouldn't be sanctioned, the yes vote would do the opposite.
If the 'yes' vote got the most crosses on the paper in such a vote, it could be rightly claimed to be severely flawed and no indication of the electorate's wishes. For an unofficial referendum to have any credibility, it must have both sides in agreement to hold it in the first place.
If the SNP want a referendum, they'll have to persuade the UK government and that isn't going to happen in the next couple of years.