The finances of an Independent Scotland.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd chose more or less anything over an unchecked Tory government.

Politics is the same reason that the EU will ultimately fail. Not the be all and end all.

Shakethedisease

wotsthat wrote: »

It's my opinion. After all why would Sturgeon call a referendum she wouldn't be able to win unless it was out of desperation?

I'm sure she's never mentioned 60% and she won't. If/ when she thinks shes got a decent chance of winning she'll play it cool and suggest she's calling a referendum because she's interested in the opinion of Scots based on whatever material change she's trying to highlight.

Another referendum loss will answer the question once and for all. The SNP simply won't call a referendum they think they'll lose even for the 'massive' issue of whether Scotland should leave the Union to join the EU.

If/ when polls are indicating a reasonable chance of a win but brexit has already passed us by a new reason for independence will be fabricated.

Sturgeon/SNP/Greens have made leaving the Single Market their red line issue. While the timing of a second referendum is very unclear, it won't be based on polls it'll be based on not leaving the Single Market with the rUK. Every single party in Scotland including most of the Tories and a very vocal (even appeared at Wembley Ruth Davidson ).. and were very clear before the Brexit vote that leaving the Single market would be absolutely catastrophic with terrible results for Scotland short/mid and long term.

It's going to be an uphill battle for those that have since changed their stances in the other parties to disavow everything they said, and they did say at a LOT, in the lead up. Any ref/vote will happen before rUK leaves the Single Market. End of story as far as Nicola Sturgeon and Patrick Harvie are concerned. Because they both imo genuinely believe that leaving the Single Market/EU and the kind of Brexit May wants will be catastrophic to Scottish interests. So they'll go for it regardless of any polling.

Timing still unclear due to Article 50 still to be triggered and how things play out afterwards. For a lot of voters it will come down to which they believe to be the lesser evil of two bad choices ( for those that voted No last time ).

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

iScotland is more than a loosening of ties, overnight Scotland becomes a competitor nation to a rUK no doubt smarting from the breakup of the Union and maybe still battling to abrogate the ramifications of Brexit. The political capital in treating Scotland in a less than sympathetic fashion will be substantial. The transformation from a rUK desperate to keep Scotland in the Union from one free from such worries will be shocking to most Scots I fear.
The economic effect of an iScotland will IMO be dwarfed by the social and political costs. The SNP never seem to talk about the 40+% of British Scots who would view independence as being dragged out of the Union against their will. Where have we heard that line before?

Maybe I should start a thread called 'The finances of an independent and out of the Single Market England and Wales' ? Do you think England and Wales without Scotland and possibly NI, and out of the EU is going to be a walk in the park ?

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Maybe I should start a thread called 'The finances of an independent and out of the Single Market England and Wales' ? Do you think England and Wales without Scotland and possibly NI, and out of the EU is going to be a walk in the park ?

Oh I see, the thought of an 'independent' rUK free to be nasty to an iScotland has you predicting a dire outlook for the people of England and Wales?
For the record the rUK doesn't have to "spiteful" toward an iScotland for the Scottish people to suffer, it merely just has to act in its new (and forced upon it) narrow self interest. Tricky seems to have a handle on the financial cost to Scotland if you choose to abandon the Union in a fit of anti English pique whipped up by the SNP.
As someone close to the south coast of England I`m looking forward to the iScotland dividend of the return of Royal Navy shipbuilding to Pompey and the possible relocation of the Nuclear Submarine fleet to the Westcountry perhaps.
I`m warming to the idea Shakey.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sturgeon/SNP/Greens have made leaving the Single Market their red line issue. While the timing of a second referendum is very unclear, it won't be based on polls it'll be based on not leaving the Single Market with the rUK. Every single party in Scotland including most of the Tories and a very vocal (even appeared at Wembley Ruth Davidson ).. and were very clear before the Brexit vote that leaving the Single market would be absolutely catastrophic with terrible results for Scotland short/mid and long term.

It's going to be an uphill battle for those that have since changed their stances in the other parties to disavow everything they said, and they did say at a LOT, in the lead up. Any ref/vote will happen before rUK leaves the Single Market. End of story as far as Nicola Sturgeon and Patrick Harvie are concerned. Because they both imo genuinely believe that leaving the Single Market/EU and the kind of Brexit May wants will be catastrophic to Scottish interests. So they'll go for it regardless of any polling.

Timing still unclear due to Article 50 still to be triggered and how things play out afterwards. For a lot of voters it will come down to which they believe to be the lesser evil of two bad choices ( for those that voted No last time ).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208

Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all".

Come on shakey, keep up.

The red line is crossed, why has the referendum not been called?

I realise that this isn't from some deranged rant from twitter, but I believe it's fairly representative of the actual position of the UK govt.

So while EU and UK are now going to do their very best to make sure that there's a reasonable settlement that benefits both parties for the future, the forward thinking, inclusive and progressive SNP are desperately hoping for a failed negotiation that damages both the UK and the EU (erm...who they want to join).

Sounds like there's a new nasty party in town.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Oh I see, the thought of an 'independent' rUK free to be nasty to an iScotland has you predicting a dire outlook for the people of England and Wales?
For the record the rUK doesn't have to "spiteful" toward an iScotland for the Scottish people to suffer, it merely just has to act in its new (and forced upon it) narrow self interest. Tricky seems to have a handle on the financial cost to Scotland if you choose to abandon the Union in a fit of anti English pique whipped up by the SNP.
As someone close to the south coast of England I`m looking forward to the iScotland dividend of the return of Royal Navy shipbuilding to Pompey and the possible relocation of the Nuclear Submarine fleet to the Westcountry perhaps.
I`m warming to the idea Shakey.

Because I read endless posts here and otherwise about how the rest of the UK should get a vote too as it will affect them. They never say how it will affect them, and we never ever hear anything about how Scotland leaving will affect the UK. Yet we discuss even the slightest minute detail, even down what TV programmes an independent Scotland would have access to ( during the last ref ). It's totally bizarre. As if Scotland leaving the UK would cause absolute earthquakes of economic and social chaos north of the border. While England just carries on, everything's great out of the Single Market, Customs union, the EU and if Scotland goes independent also loses 9% of the UK population with all that goes with it. Does this sound likely to you ?

Economics are very difficult to work out too since they all tend to be reported in 'Scotland, Wales, NI and UK terms. Even the trade between Scotland rUK is questionable due to either companies being unable to distinguish between what is or isn't Scotland -> rUK and vice versa. Or their reports are covered UK wide so they guesstimate.

Also just for referenence on threads like these fyi, most of us up here think the SNP won't last very long at all as a party after independence. So predicting everything as SNP led after independence for decades is entirely the wrong approach ( and this is the wrong thread anyway for that discussion ).

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208



Come on shakey, keep up.

The red line is crossed, why has the referendum not been called?

I realise that this isn't from some deranged rant from twitter, but I believe it's fairly representative of the actual position of the UK govt.

So while EU and UK are now going to do their very best to make sure that there's a reasonable settlement that benefits both parties for the future, the forward thinking, inclusive and progressive SNP are desperately hoping for a failed negotiation that damages both the UK and the EU (erm...who they want to join).

Sounds like there's a new nasty party in town.

Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. Scotland is in wait and see mode. Massive political rows most likely ahead between Holyrood and Westminster over a second referendum, the Great Repeal Bill, fishing, agriculture and leaving the ECJ. We've yet to hear anything from the EU in how hard ball or not they're going to play this either.

Sturgeon is biding her time simple as that. When it looks like Scotland is leaving the Single Market then she'll pull the trigger along with Harvie. But she'll give fair warning of it.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Because I read endless posts here and otherwise about how the rest of the UK should get a vote too as it will affect them. They never say how it will affect them, and we never ever hear anything about how Scotland leaving will affect the UK. Yet we discuss even the slightest minute detail, even down what TV programmes an independent Scotland would have access to ( during the last ref ). It's totally bizarre. As if Scotland leaving the UK would cause absolute earthquakes of economic and social chaos north of the border. While England just carries on, everything's great out of the Single Market, Customs union, the EU and if Scotland goes independent also loses 9% of the UK population with all that goes with it. Does this sound likely to you ?

Economics are very difficult to work out too since they all tend to be reported in 'Scotland, Wales, NI and UK terms. Even the trade between Scotland rUK is questionable due to either companies being unable to distinguish between what is or isn't Scotland -> rUK and vice versa. Or their reports are covered UK wide so they guesstimate.

I do get that, but the onus is on those who would change the status quo to try and predict the ramifications of Scotland leaving the Union surely. If the economic situation is hard to predict then the problem is yours to try and work out, its your lot that wants to change things.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. Scotland is in wait and see mode. Massive political rows most likely ahead between Holyrood and Westminster over a second referendum, the Great Repeal Bill, fishing, agriculture and leaving the ECJ. We've yet to hear anything from the EU in how hard ball or not they're going to play this either.

Sturgeon is biding her time simple as that. When it looks like Scotland is leaving the Single Market then she'll pull the trigger along with Harvie. But she'll give fair warning of it.

That's right shakey. Absolutely right.

Wait and see lol.

I actually cannot wait for the day that the SNP block the great repeal bill. Although I doubt even they are that stupid.
Hardcore Twitter nationalists though, well that's a different matter...

I note you still have no comment on the SNPs desire for a failed negotiation.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

We've yet to hear anything from the EU in how hard ball or not they're going to play this either.

Because it's a negotiation. After 2 years the UK exits. If no agreement can be reached on certain topics that's just tough, for both sides.