Shares - the next crash?

jennyjj

robotrobo wrote: »

what about , smokeing , drinking , & women ? & waste the rest:)

Gets my vote Well not the smoking for which I'll substitute fine dining... Oh and I'd better substitute women too:rotfl:
Invest to live, don't live to invest.:money:

Malthusian

k6chris wrote: »

What is most likely to cause the next significant pull back in equity valuations (and when is this likely to happen)?

The fact that they're equities (and sometime).

moneyfoolish

It will undoubtedly be very soon after I transfer my Cash ISAs into an S&S ISAs. The last time I ventured into the Stock Market was about a month before the Technology Bubble burst. Luckily, I got out before I lost my shirt but I've never ventured back in since. However, all my fixed rate Cash ISAs are now running out and returning next to nothing so I feel as there is little option other than Funds as I've got cash in all the high paying bank accounts! So beware!!!

slowpoke_rodriguez

metrobus wrote: »

If your in it for the long run who cares when the next collapse is,history tells us it always recovers and pushes on to greater heights.

It's just having the balls to ride it out.

And the cash...

ffacoffipawb

k6chris wrote: »

What is most likely to cause the next significant pull back in equity valuations (and when is this likely to happen)? Not a serious question from an investment standpoint, but curious as to your thoughts.

A Labour Government? (shudder)

When? Hopefully not in my lifetime.

BananaRepublic

Not many people saw the last crash coming, or rather they did not realise how bad it would be. I saw it coming for years, wondering how long it would be before the market looked down and realised there was nothing beneath its feet, but like most of us I thought it would only be a minor correction. So what makes you think we know the cause of the next crash?

We know China has huge debts, and yet it also has huge reserves of money, which the government is using to try and bring them down gently. We also know the current Chinese number one has created a personality cult around himself and is gradually taking more and more power, and asserting Chinese power elsewhere such as in the South China Sea. And Putin is throwing his weight around with an economy based on primary resources such as oil and gas. The Middle East is still run largely by ruthless thugs, and so-called IS is making a mess. It's kind of worrying.

JohnRo wrote: »

The stage is set for a total corporate takeover. NHS doomed, welfare state on borrowed time, fracking rigs coming to every village, North Sea fished to extinction, Murdoch's Brexit tabloids back in charge of picking UK governments and running the country again. Strikes, robots and riots, trade wars, real wars, Britain, Great, again.

Brexit dimwits flapping their flippers like performing sea lions as the EU collapses and the far right, dictators and fascism take hold.

In the US further bank deregulation, back peddling on global warming commitments, building and digging for victory while drone striking muslims, terrorists and anyone else looking a bit shifty.

DJT monetising politics like only he can. Declaring himself Supreme Leader before the decades out and those pesky elections derail his business plan, Nige his new executive empowered European real estate mogul.

US paranoia with China's rising star finally reaches breaking point. The new Red Menaces competence at presenting themselves as the only sane, statesmanlike regime on Earth, in the face of a Western political meltdown, finally pulls the QE rug from under the markets when the US start shooting at everyone not waving a star spangled banner, swilling bud or eating burgers, in a last ditch attempt to retain world dominance.

Well, that, something else or not much. I'm sticking to the plan and backing global equities regardless.

You did ask..

I think you need to sit back and relax, maybe get a nice craft beer or two, and watch a good film on telly.

Malthusian

moneyfoolish wrote: »

It will undoubtedly be very soon after I transfer my Cash ISAs into an S&S ISAs. The last time I ventured into the Stock Market was about a month before the Technology Bubble burst. Luckily, I got out before I lost my shirt but I've never ventured back in since.

Not lucky in the slightest, if you'd kept your money in a globally diversified portfolio since February 2000 you'd have over double what you put in (+119%), compared to a +75% return on cash over the period.

And of couse if you'd added to your portfolio at any point in the last 17 years that wasn't the worst possible time, your returns would be even higher than that.

moneyfoolish

Malthusian wrote: »

Not lucky in the slightest, if you'd kept your money in a globally diversified portfolio since February 2000 you'd have over double what you put in (+119%), compared to a +75% return on cash over the period.

And of couse if you'd added to your portfolio at any point in the last 17 years that wasn't the worst possible time, your returns would be even higher than that.

You are absolutely correct, of course, although all my investments were in tech and bio-tech companies at that time and I had £70,000 invested which was a huge amount of money for me. I realise now how stupid that was as it couldn't have been further away from a diversified portfolio. However, it also taught me that I didn't have the temperament for investment as I was in a blind panic until I sold everything and realised I was much more worried by the loss of my money than the potential gain! In actual fact, I had several companies which I think turned out to be huge winners further down the line (Shire and BTG come to mind) so I may have made a profit even with a portfolio as bad as the one I had!! If I invest again it will be in only one fund and that will be a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund. However, I'm already wavering because of the potential financial crisis in Greece!

BananaRepublic

moneyfoolish wrote: »

However, it also taught me that I didn't have the temperament for investment

Would you feel more confident if you took advice from an IFA? Some of us are cold blooded enough to sit out the worst economic sunamis, in fact we welcome them. But you are wise enough to recognise your own 'failing'.

moneyfoolish

BananaRepublic wrote: »

Would you feel more confident if you took advice from an IFA? Some of us are cold blooded enough to sit out the worst economic sunamis, in fact we welcome them. But you are wise enough to recognise your own 'failing'.

Not really. At my age (71) I would prefer to have my money in savings accounts but the only alternative I would consider is a relatively low risk, low cost passive fund and only for money which I couldn't find a home for in high interest cheque accounts.