Shares - the next crash?

k6chris

What is most likely to cause the next significant pull back in equity valuations (and when is this likely to happen)? Not a serious question from an investment standpoint, but curious as to your thoughts.

JohnRo

The stage is set for a total corporate takeover. NHS doomed, welfare state on borrowed time, fracking rigs coming to every village, North Sea fished to extinction, Murdoch's Brexit tabloids back in charge of picking UK governments and running the country again. Strikes, robots and riots, trade wars, real wars, Britain, Great, again.

Brexit dimwits flapping their flippers like performing sea lions as the EU collapses and the far right, dictators and fascism take hold.

In the US further bank deregulation, back peddling on global warming commitments, building and digging for victory while drone striking muslims, terrorists and anyone else looking a bit shifty.

DJT monetising politics like only he can. Declaring himself Supreme Leader before the decades out and those pesky elections derail his business plan, Nige his new executive empowered European real estate mogul.

US paranoia with China's rising star finally reaches breaking point. The new Red Menaces competence at presenting themselves as the only sane, statesmanlike regime on Earth, in the face of a Western political meltdown, finally pulls the QE rug from under the markets when the US start shooting at everyone not waving a star spangled banner, swilling bud or eating burgers, in a last ditch attempt to retain world dominance.

Well, that, something else or not much. I'm sticking to the plan and backing global equities regardless.

You did ask..

Zola.

A scary prospect, but an entertaining read!

jennyjj

k6chris wrote: »

What is most likely to cause the next significant pull back in equity valuations?

The thing we least expect.

k6chris wrote: »

When is this likely to happen?

When we least expect it.
You don't hear the lightning bolt that kills you.

jimjames

k6chris wrote: »

What is most likely to cause the next significant pull back in equity valuations (and when is this likely to happen)? Not a serious question from an investment standpoint, but curious as to your thoughts.

An unexpected event. Trump will cause lots of those.
Timing, I'd say 2.34pm on 21st June


On the lines of JohnRo above this was quite a good read and seems to be pretty logical even if scary
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-stone/history-tells-us-what-will-brexit-trump_b_11179774.html

fun4everyone

jimjames wrote: »

On the lines of JohnRo above this was quite a good read and seems to be pretty logical even if scary
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-stone/history-tells-us-what-will-brexit-trump_b_11179774.html

Sell all currently held assets and then put everything into gold :eek:

metrobus

If your in it for the long run who cares when the next collapse is,history tells us it always recovers and pushes on to greater heights.

It's just having the balls to ride it out.

robotrobo

fun4everyone wrote: »

Sell all currently held assets and then put everything into gold :eek:

what about , smokeing , drinking , & women ? & waste the rest:)

jennyjj

metrobus wrote: »

. . .,history tells us it always recovers

Every time I've ever been ill, I've recovered. Therefore the evidence points to me being immortal.
:j

metrobus

jennyjj wrote: »

Every time I've ever been ill, I've recovered. Therefore the evidence points to me being immortal.
:j

Full graveyards and conveyor belt cremations will prove not.

jennyjj

metrobus wrote: »

Full graveyards and conveyor belt cremations will prove not.

I'm in none of them. My argument still stands.:j

OK. To be serious.
There is, in my opinion, little to be gained by trying to 'time the market'. There are vast armies of individuals and organisations which ultimately decide the current 'value' of any share, comodity or sector of the market. History is history, and the fact that they valued something higher or lower last year really is irrelevant. Even more irerelevant is that we may have paid much more or much less for some shares than today's price. But it's hard to be detached, isn't it. But we must.
I personally own a bunch of shares in BT that i could have sold for £13. That's tough luck on me. I should decide whether to keep or sell them based only on what 'the market' is telling me today. It will break my heart, but hey-ho. Life's too short to have masses of my wealth in one roller coaster equity.
Back to the point.
Yes. Shares have grown in the long term, it's always been so in the UK. . . But, it 'Ain't necessarily so'. a short term downturn CAN last decades and could outlive me. Ask any Japanese pensioner who invested in 1989 when the Nikkeii was at 38,957 and died last week waiting for it to crawl back to 21,000