Electric cars

Car_54

Martyn1981 wrote: »

My sister lived in WA (Perth) for a few years. There's a destination charger in Perth, and a supercharger in Eaton, Bunbury.

So there are two chargers in a city of 2.2 million, and 1,500 miles to the nearest major city.

Martyn1981

Car_54 wrote: »

So there are two chargers in a city of 2.2 million, and 1,500 miles to the nearest major city.

Hiya I suspect that with 2m+ residents, there will be around 1m domestic charge points (residences).

AdrianC

AdrianC wrote: »

Oh, my apologies. I accidentally omitted a zero first time round...

The May 2016 estimate, a month and a bit after "launch" and the order book opened, was 100k cars by the end of 2017.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya, no you added one on for effect.

Sorry, but it was a zero omitted.

They were still estimating December 2017 production of 20,000 cars per month - 5,000 per week - as late as October 2017.

100,000 cars by the end of 2017 was Tesla's estimate as of May 2016.

https://electrek.co/2016/05/04/tesla-july-1st-2017-deadline-model-3-parts-suppliers/

Musk added that he estimates Tesla could manufacture as many as 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3 vehicles during the second half of 2017.

The reality has probably reached a bit over 1% of the lower of those two figures.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

The reality has probably reached a bit over 1% of the lower of those two figures.

Actually it's more like 5% (estimates of ~5,000 cars), but don't let a factor of 5 concern you.

Do I take it, using your logic, that if Tesla had suggested a large ramp up of production in 2018 Q2, but achieve it in Q1, then they must be the best company in the world?

Or using your own link, they are superstars because:

The updated timeline is part of Tesla’s new Build Plan of advancing its guidance of 500,000 unit per year by two years to 2018.

Though I suspect if they bring it forward 2yrs, but only achieve 1yr, you'll knock them for being a year behind!

Your dodgy argument seems entirely based on on what Tesla deliver v's what it initially hopes to deliver. Most car companies are still talking about the EV's that they will launch in 2020-2025.

I think you are scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for negatives.

Car_54

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Hiya I suspect that with 2m+ residents, there will be around 1m domestic charge points (residences).

I suspect that's wildly optimistic, to say the least. A quick look at what demographic data I can find suggests that a majority of the population lives in flats.

If we assume (generously) that 1 million live in the type of houses where charging is practicable, it is also reasonable to assume that the average household in those types of dwelling is well over two persons. If it's as low as 3 (again generous) then your 1 million potential charging points come down to one third of a million.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Actually it's more like 5% (estimates of ~5,000 cars)

I've not seen any December production figures. But November was 345 cars, for a total of 712 in the four months since the first batch of 30 at the end of July. That's half a day's production at the rate being aimed at...

To increase the monthly production to 4,300 - more than twelvefold - in one go? Yeh, good luck with that... It's possible. Is it likely? No.

Do I take it, using your logic, that if Tesla had suggested a large ramp up of production in 2018 Q2, but achieve it in Q1, then they must be the best company in the world?

I already said "under-promise, then over-deliver". Not the other way round.

I think you are scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for negatives.

...while I think you're blind to reality because of your fanboi religious fervour to worship at the altar of St Elon.

That half million cars per year pretty much IS the target 10k/wk Model 3s - ignoring the S and X. They've been averaging around 14k S and 11k X over the last few quarters - about 100k/yr between them. So getting 2018 to 500k is going to require the 10k/wk figure pretty much solidly from the start of Q2 - which isn't going to happen, given that half that is now pushed back to the very end of Q1 and no date's being given for the full whack. Or a massive ramp for the S (now five years old, so more likely to go the other way) and the X (unlikely, now it's settled into the market with a year of production behind it).

Wig

I won't consider an EV until there are as many filling stations in the UK for hydrogen as there are now for LPG.

I consider batteries to be a waste of time, the only logical successor to petrol will be hydrogen.

System

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I'm afraid your calculations are wrong.

As I said, I made them based on the Tesla S because at the time there was no information other than "we're making a semi."

You may be aware that Tesla stated that their trucks consume less than 2kWh/mile at max weight (80,000lb).

But we don't run at that in the UK, we run at 97,000lb. 80,000lb or 36 metric tonnes would be considered a quite light load.

Now admittedly, he didn't specify a model, so let's go with the smallest at 75kWh, so 600kWh would therefore weigh -

(600kg/75) x 600 = 4,800kg, so less than half the weight you claim.

But still a hell of a lot more than the engine, gearbox and 450 litres of diesel in the lorry I drive. At 4800kg that's 2/3 of the GVW of the tractor unit.

In my earlier example I suggested a weight saving of 5,000lbs to 8,000lbs, so around 2.27 to 3.63 tonnes, to help balance out the additional battery weight.

There is currently no way a Tesla truck is going to weigh even anywhere near close to that of a conventional truck, a lesson Tesla are about to learn. Tesla are also going to learn that load capacity is extremely high up on the list to the point that we don't even carry spare tyres any more to cut down on weight.

Until something can be done in regards to power density in batteries Tesla's trucks are only going to appeal to those where they cube out so for lightweight but high volume loads and for relatively local journeys which is why UPS have signed up.

AdrianC

Tarambor wrote: »

As I said, I made them based on the Tesla S because at the time there was no information other than "we're making a semi."

There still isn't, since there hasn't been even one technology prototype built yet.

Gloomendoom

Wig wrote: »

I won't consider an EV until there are as many filling stations in the UK for hydrogen as there are now for LPG.

I consider batteries to be a waste of time, the only logical successor to petrol will be hydrogen.

Where will this hydrogen come from?