Electric cars

AdrianC

There are two main areas of alleged collusion between the German Big 3:


* They allegedly colluded to limit expenditure on NOx emission technology (specifically, limiting the functionality of selective catalytic reduction technology), between 2004 and 2014.


* They allegedly colluded to avoid or delay implementation of particulate reduction technology (Otto particulate filters) between 2009 and 2014.

Hmm... Not sure how that's going to work.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-2008_en.htm


The emissions regs don't specify what technology must be deployed, only the maximum emissions limits in the standardised testing. There are manufacturers meeting Euro6 in the stricter WLTP tests without AdBlue. Also, no manufacturer was found to have broken the then-current rules of the Euro NEDC testing. The cheating behind "dieselgate" was in the US tests, which had far stricter NOx limits than the Euro standard.



The second of those two isn't even about diesels - "Otto" cycle means petrol, and it's referring to GPFs. The petrol Euro emissions didn't even include a particulate cap until Euro6 in 2014.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Hmm... Not sure how that's going to work.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-2008_en.htm


The emissions regs don't specify what technology must be deployed, only the maximum emissions limits in the standardised testing. There are manufacturers meeting Euro6 in the stricter WLTP tests without AdBlue. Also, no manufacturer was found to have broken the then-current rules of the Euro NEDC testing. The cheating behind "dieselgate" was in the US tests, which had far stricter NOx limits than the Euro standard.



The second of those two isn't even about diesels - "Otto" cycle means petrol, and it's referring to GPFs. The petrol Euro emissions didn't even include a particulate cap until Euro6 in 2014.

Ring em up and tell them, I'm sure they'll appreciate your input.

Martyn1981

Fun number/stat/factoid.

I watched Ben Sullins most recent post on Teslanomics earlier. He's an even bigger data geek than Z! He gave a positive run through of Tesla's growth, including 'that' quarter by quarter chart. But also commented on a fact I hadn't heard which blew me away a bit.

He mentioned US TM3 sales in 2019 Q1, and pointed out that they were greater than any of their competitors in the mid size luxury sedan segment, but here's the kicker, greater than any of their competitors for the whole of 2018. That's Q1 2019 TM3 greater than any competitor for the whole of 2018.

Looks like the age of the BEV is approaching fast.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Perhaps we should just look back, eh?

The first mention of the Q1 figures was Martyn, post 3516, which started...
"Tesla Q1 figures look a bit poor (to me), possibly due to low Jan sales (US car sales in Jan are very low), and the amount of cars now in transit due to international sales (shipments)."

My reply to that, 3517, only mentioned the production numbers.

Your reply to Martyn, 3521, focussed on deliveries.

My reply to you, 3522, only showed the numbers for both production and deliveries.

Martyn, 3525, referred to the market as a whole, and pointed specifically to a graph referring to Tesla deliveries, which I replied directly to, 3526, pointing to one part of that graph.

GZoom, 3532, mentioned deliveries.

My reply to that, 3533, only mentioned production.

You looked back at that graph in 3534, referring again to deliveries.

I replied in 3535, suggesting that we focus on production, rather than deliveries, precisely because of the transient blip caused by starting non-NA Model 3 deliveries.

As for the shipping logistics, yes, the East Coast is a fair way from the plant. But the ports are no further than East Coast consumers are, so that's a well-established logistics route. The shipping may well be done from a West Coast port - but, again, the logistics there will be well established, since the Model S and X for Tilberg final assembly will already be using that route. Last time I looked "21 days" is not very far from the 2-3 weeks I suggested, and they still come to Europe across the Atlantic, rather heading the somewhat longer way round across the Pacific/Indian Ocean/Arabian Gulf/Med etc.

Getting back to the point, though, I doubt there's significant line impact through introducing RoW-spec cars, simply a few extra part SKUs feeding into what's already a fairly solidly automated line. Didn't they say there was 98% parts commonality? RHD isn't happening yet, which would bring the nearest to significant disruption, but even that would be minimal assuming both car and line were designed with it mind.



Great, so we're all agreed that the starting-European-delivery thing is no more than a relatively minor, temporary blip. Group hug.

Hi

Look back all you want, it's your circular argument with yourself that seems to be interesting to most others ...

The fact is that loading the delivery conveyor for the first time always creates an initial anomaly between build & delivered volumes if the sales aren't FOB or Ex-Works as the inventory remains with the supplier all of the time that it is in transit ...

Regarding west or east coast & 'well-established logistics route' ... you obviously missed that current shipments to the EU are via San Francisco & deep sea freight, presumably via the Panama canal, so over 8000 nautical miles ... your alternative suggestions ranging up to 19000 miles would simply increase number of vehicles in transit by a couple of months worth of EU destination production ... great if you're an accountant at a shipping company, but would that really be on Tesla's continuous improvement cost reduction route map? ..

By the way, east coast ports may reduce the sea distance by around 60% and access the 'well-established logistics route' you seem to be saying they should use, but the additional consolidation, continental transshipment & overland freight charges would also not fit a minimum cost efficiency model ... unless you're an international freight logistic expert as well as an automotive design & production engineer, in which case you have the option of ringing or emailing Elon directly & submitting your highly competitive quote! ... guess not though ... :whistle:

HTH
Z

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

... He's an even bigger data geek than Z! ...

Hi

I'll wear that remark with pride for the rest of the day!


:think:, if only MSE had a 'Data-geek of the week' badge! ... :wave:
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

in which case you have the option of ringing or emailing Elon directly & submitting your highly competitive quote! ... guess not though ... :whistle:

HTH
Z

Stop it! Bad Z.

The EU legal battle is probably costing parties €m's per week, so the savings would be enormous for all when Ade lets them know the case is invalid. So don't distract him till that's done first.

Only after he's explained to the EU, Daimler, VW and BMW that he has a better legal mind than them and their teams, should he inform Elon, that he has a better logistical brain too.

di-di-di-dah-di-dah

Martyn1981 wrote: »

He mentioned US TM3 sales in 2019 Q1, and pointed out that they were greater than any of their competitors in the mid size luxury sedan segment, but here's the kicker, greater than any of their competitors for the whole of 2018.

Yeah that's fairly easy considering competition doesn't really sell cars good competition to Tesla 3 would be Kona or e-Niro but supply is almost non existant. 2020 will be intrest in year with some good affordable cars out soon. New Zoe with good range, next wave of Kona and Niro as well as electric Peugeot 208. I can see more of regular folks jumping on EV next year. Once we start seeing 250+ range at comparable prices to fuel cars we will see even more people switching

Martyn1981

di-di-di-dah-di-dah wrote: »

Yeah that's fairly easy considering competition doesn't really sell cars good competition to Tesla 3 would be Kona or e-Niro but supply is almost non existant. 2020 will be intrest in year with some good affordable cars out soon. New Zoe with good range, next wave of Kona and Niro as well as electric Peugeot 208. I can see more of regular folks jumping on EV next year. Once we start seeing 250+ range at comparable prices to fuel cars we will see even more people switching

Hiya, good point. Would those be classed in the mid size luxury segment? I'm assuming not, but I'm not sure. But the TM3 may be crushing it in that segment simply (as you point out) by being the only BEV available in numbers.

No idea what range is needed, probably 200+, but after the V3 update on the Superchargers, I'm now wondering if less range (cheaper and lighter car) is now needed to tip the market if faster recharging is possible for the occasional long trip.

Regardless, all good news.

di-di-di-dah-di-dah

I think 250+ miles is a decent range as it will drop in winter to something like 180 to 200 so you still can make a decent trip without a need for constant stopping.

Two good things to consider about electric car charging are

1 Charging electric car is not like putting petrol in regular car it's more like charging your mobile phone. You don't need to hold your phone in your hand while it charges. With electric ca if you stop at services you can just plug it in and go grab a bite, use toilet etc. You don't need to be physically near the car for it to charge. So you waste significantly less time than if you actually went to petrol station. With a range like 210 miles we are talking about 3 hours of driving at maximum allowed speed of 70 mph. I don't know about you but I tend to stop about as often for toilets etc. Sometime more often if I have kids with me.I don't think we need much more than 250 for most people. People like to think they drive 500 miles without stopping but they really don't.

2 Charging at home is even easier you plug it in and in the morning it's at full capacity ready to drive. No time wasted and you basically reset your range daily.

For someone like me I tend to drive maybe 150 miles a week. Once a month I need to drive to destination about 150 miles away from my house and back. Once a year we drive on holidays about 300 to 400 miles where we stay for couple of days. If I can do that with just one stop then electric car that lets me do that would more than enough for me. I think majority of people overestimate how much range they need.

AdrianC

Tesla have gained a substantial ("hundreds of million of euros") revenue stream, propping Fiat-Chrysler up in meeting forthcoming EU corporate average emissions limits: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47845971


They're already doing similar deals in the US, of course - "over a billion dollars in the last three years"