Electric cars

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Tesla Q1 figures look a bit poor (to me), possibly due to low Jan sales (US car sales in Jan are very low), and the amount of cars now in transit due to international sales (shipments).

Tesla Deliveries Up 110% In Q1 2019 vs. Q1 2018

But I had to laugh, the Bloomberg TM3 tracker this time had to massively revise down its estimate which yesterday was claiming 236,787 and 6,195p/w, and today is 221,517 and 5,344p/w. Bloomberg entered Mch with an estimate of 5,741p/w, and revised that figure each day up to the 6,195p/w figure. I'm not entirely sure what they are really tracking and why they need to change their figures every quarter end so much.

Hi

The issue is that the introduction of more variable transport times & charging up the 'delivery conveyor' for international sales will have an initial impact on analysis if it's conducted on delivered volumes as opposed to production as the relationship between the two has experienced a temporary disconnect .... it's pretty standard in long distance JiT chains ...

... when the initial batch supply settles down to represent a regular flow of goods and the supply chain slots are normalised the two tend to re-align ... the real issue is that the main reason to use deliveries as opposed to production as a measure is to filter out unsold product going to stock, which I think we can all agree isn't the case with the TM3, so it's really Bloomberg's analysts that are at fault in not understanding the step-change that commencing international sales represents!!

Guess what happens over the next couple of report iterations! ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

The issue is that the introduction of more variable transport times & charging up the 'delivery conveyor' for international sales will have an initial impact on analysis if it's conducted on delivered volumes as opposed to production as the relationship between the two has experienced a temporary disconnect .... it's pretty standard in long distance JiT chains ...

Indeed.

Deliveries down 31% Q1 vs Q4 (Model 3 -20%, Model S/X -56%)
Production down 11% Q1 vs Q4 (Model 3 +2%, Model S/X -44%)

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Guess what happens over the next couple of report iterations! ...

HTH
Z

I'll guess more desperate FUD from 'you-know-who', but nothing about VW nor Audi (nor anyone else failing to meet targets). Funny how Tesla hitting their targets* got so much FUD, but everyone else failing, gets none?

*As the recent court ruling found, Tesla met their targets, but not Elon's hoped for optimistic high guess. The ruling was fun as it pointed to Elon repeatedly calling it 'Production Hell', a clue that apparently was too subtle for some.

Regarding Bloomberg, I just don't understand how they can be out so very, very much every quarter, especially if they are tracking VIN's. Perhaps this time round a FUDster could claim Tesla registered too many VIN's in advance, but how was Bloomberg so far below in other quarters, it's not like cars can leave the factory without a VIN.

And then's there's the fools who ignore Bloomberg's figures till they amend them the day the Tesla figures come out, then report (cough on here cough) that they match ....... what ............ they match. Where did the 15,200 cars go that they amended/deleted today v's yesterday, cue conspiracy theories about TM3's being unsold and stored at old airfields.

I'm going to accurately predict the weekend's winning lottery numbers, but you mustn't look at my prediction till I 'revise' it on Monday. :rotfl:

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

...nothing about VW nor Audi (nor anyone else failing to meet targets).

I'm not quite sure of the relevance, but fwiw... VAG had a torrid time through 2018 - through the whole WLTP fiasco.

Yet they still increased production - just two years of decrease since 2006 (the years of the financial crisis and US emission-rigging), more than doubling output over that period.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/272050/worldwide-vehicle-production-of-volkswagen-since-2006/

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

I'm not quite sure of the relevance, but fwiw... VAG had a torrid time through 2018 - through the whole WLTP fiasco.

Yet they still increased production - just two years of decrease since 2006 (the years of the financial crisis and US emission-rigging), more than doubling output over that period.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/272050/worldwide-vehicle-production-of-volkswagen-since-2006/

Miles off their old EV targets though, remember, try to stick to the subject, no diversions into petrol, diesel, or WWIIC/WGV's.

So back to EV's and increased production, since that's important and impressive to you, have you noticed the monumental growth in BEV's by one particular company? I won't mention their name, but as a clue, last year they sold more BEV's than any other company. Even you'll have difficulty attacking them ....... relentlessly ....... yawn.

3rd graph is quite illuminating!

AdrianC

Yes, there's been a global growth in EV sales. 2.1m vehicles last year, globally - up 64% on 2017, and now reaching 2.2% of all vehicle sales, or about 40% of the global total fleet in just one year. That's all plug-ins, yes - 69% of them pure BEV, so just under 1.45m BEVs globally.
http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/



But to zoom in from the market as a whole to a manufacturer who delivered about 1 in 6 of those BEVs, then...

Yes, that lonely red blob shows Tesla's Q1 2019 drop as being quite marked, doesn't it? Not just way below Q4 last year, but about half-way between Q2 and Q3 last year... And in such a strongly rising market, too.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

And in such a strongly rising market, too.

The market they are number one in?

At some point you'll have to end your little anti-EV, anti-Tesla campaign. I was going to say before you look silly and bitter, but that ship sailed two years ago.

Martyn1981

Another article on the next big thing in batts. If even partially true, that's a massive jump in energy density, allowing for far more energy, or the same energy for a smaller, lighter battery.

Swiss Startup Innolith Claims 1000 Wh/kg Battery Breakthrough

Martyn1981

Toyota to the rescue, we are all saved, they are going to share their hybrid technology. Shame they didn't do this before HEV's began to decline.

Toyota Decides To Share Its Hybrid Powertrain Technology With The World

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If even partially true, that's a massive jump in energy density

Will it be commercially viable though?