Electric cars

Martyn1981

It's on the way to a country near you!

Tesla Prepares For European Launch Of Model 3 With Paris Motor Show Appearance

Tesla has confirmed that it will bring the highly anticipated Tesla Model 3 to the 2018 Paris Motor Show, marking just the second official appearance of the Model 3 on the continent since its debut. The show will be held from October 4–14 at the Porte de Versailles and will whet the appetites of many reservation holders who have been eagerly awaiting official news of the European launch of the Model 3, which is expected in the first half of 2019.

Martyn1981

There's a little bit more to this story, such as

The same trip would have, conservatively and based on city prices, cost more than $3,000 in petrol in a conventional sedan. Charging the car cost $150.90 in total, partly because people often did not want payment.

but still well worth a read.

How much does it cost to power an electric car around Australia? $150

almillar

So, if you know that Tesla is not making a profit now, then you need to provide that information to support your position of fact

I know what you mean, but is it really so unfair to refer to a company's LATEST quarterly results? I'd call that 'current', and I'd call Q3, as of today, FUTURE. And of course, it's open to speculation. Q2 isn't.

That's not spin, just a calculated guess, with supporting information, whereas denying profits, past, present and future isn't a guess, it's simply a wish based on a person's dislike for EV's or Tesla.

I can't argue with your calculated guess, I agree with it. But I think someone could also make a 'calculated guess' that they won't make a profit - they haven't so far, why should they in the future? Now, they have a plan, it's working so far. You and I believe it'll work, but what if, for their own reasons, someone doesn't believe that. You don't have to persuade them.

In all of the profit discussions so far (myself and Z) I believe we've referred to past results and business models, and production numbers to justify comments and opinions. That doesn't mean we aren't speculating, but at least we are being rational about it.

Absolutely.

AdrianC

almillar wrote: »

But I think someone could also make a 'calculated guess' that they won't make a profit - they haven't so far

They have in the past. Twice! $22m in Q3 2016, and $11m in Q1 2013.


By comparison, Q2 2018 was their single largest loss to date - $718m, beating their previous "best" of $710m. Oh, hold on. That was Q1 2018, which beat the previous record of $675m - in Q4 2017. Which beat the previous record of $619m. Bet you can't guess when that was...? Q2 2017 was minor, in comparison - just $336m. Oh, wait. That was their then-record, too, but it only just beat the previous record of $330m in Q1 2017... Q4 2016 was nowhere NEAR a record! Only $121m, compared to a previous record of $320m in Q4 2015...

So that last profitable quarter has been followed by seven straight loss-making ones, with six of them being the largest they've ever made, more than doubling the previous largest. A total of $3.5bn in those seven straight quarters...


Q3 results should be in around the start of October.
Martyn - care to wager a fiver, paid to the charity of the winner's choice?

Herzlos

Company making a loss != a product line being profitable.


It's never been in dispute that Tesla as a corporation has been making losses, due to the huge investments it's making.

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

It's never been in dispute that Tesla as a corporation has been making losses

Indeed. It's hard to dispute the actual filed financial results of a listed corporation, short of making some fairly heavy-duty allegations of criminality.

due to the huge investments it's making.

Q2 2018 - Tesla's capex (their investment in assets) was $610m, against losses of $718m.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712
Cash Flow and Liquidity, page 4.

Martyn1981

almillar wrote: »

I know what you mean, but is it really so unfair to refer to a company's LATEST quarterly results? I'd call that 'current', and I'd call Q3, as of today, FUTURE. And of course, it's open to speculation. Q2 isn't.

LATEST results, no not unfair at all, but, I'm not referring to the latest (past) results, I'm referring to the present, and when I did, you said I was trying to be difficult when in fact I was trying to make sure there was zero ambiguity in my comments so that you (or anyone else) couldn't spin yet another false charge against me, and these deceased equine abuse sessions would finally end.

Unfortunately ....... you still did.

Also, this is a special case. Elon / Tesla have said that profits might be reached in Q3 if production was high enough, it is Q3, and production has been reported as being very good, so it would have been remiss of me not to point out that they may, now, be in profit.

Once again, I don't think there is anything wrong in what I've posted, the fault lies in your understanding/interpretation of it.

almillar wrote: »

I can't argue with your calculated guess, I agree with it. But I think someone could also make a 'calculated guess' that they won't make a profit - they haven't so far, why should they in the future? Now, they have a plan, it's working so far. You and I believe it'll work, but what if, for their own reasons, someone doesn't believe that. You don't have to persuade them.

Nope. That's not an equivalent. To guess that a profit will be reached when production hits the necessary level is a reasonable guess since they have managed this twice before. So the business model appears sound. That doesn't mean they will make a profit this quarter or next, and they may need production to ramp even higher, but it does suggest a profit is likely based on the info we have.

Your repeated statements, accidental or for hypothetical example are wrong each time, as they have reached profitability. So a reasonable guess against profitability needs a false statement to be true, or if the statement is false, then the guess is no longer reasonable - and becomes a 'less reasonable' guess. It could still turn out to be true, but my statement is without spin, the negative position would require a bit of spin, or wishful (negative) thinking.

So ...... I don't think there is anything wrong in what I've posted, the fault lies in your understanding/interpretation of it.

If you don't care about me, then for the sake of the horses, please have a heart ....... and give it up now!

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Martyn - care to wager a fiver, paid to the charity of the winner's choice?

OK. My suspicion is that they'll make a small loss. My charity of choice is ARC a rescue center in Cardiff I volunteer at. let me know your choice.

PS What odds do I get 2:1 or 22:1 Or have you still not gone back and checked your maths.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

OK. My suspicion is that they'll make a small loss.

Care to put a number on "small"? Below $50m?



I'll go with $500m+ loss for Q3 2018.


And anywhere between your guess and mine then, since we'd both be wrong, we both donate - the winners here are good causes, after all. I'll go with the Alzheimer's Society.


(Yours looks like a very good cause, btw, and congrats to you for putting your time where your mouth is.)


<offers hand to shake>

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Care to put a number on "small"? Below $50m?



I'll go with $500m+ loss for Q3 2018.


And anywhere between your guess and mine then, since we'd both be wrong, we both donate - the winners here are good causes, after all. I'll go with the Alzheimer's Society.


(Yours looks like a very good cause, btw, and congrats to you for putting your time where your mouth is.)


<offers hand to shake>

Sounds good, but can we make it £10, with £5 also going to Guide Dogs, as they took a £25k hit yesterday when our current trainee guide dog boarder was withdrawn just short of being matched as he's just not good enough.