Electric cars

Martyn1981

almillar wrote: »

No. We're diametrically opposed on this issue. I've been talking about the present all along. The most present information we have is Q2. That was a loss. That's current for 3 months. It's no more complicated than that.

The present is Q3, not Q2. Please don't try to deny the date in order to re-write the narrative. That's silly even for you.

My statement remains true that they may (or may not) currently be in profit, but we won't know for a month.

almillar wrote: »

See above. You nor Tesla can't say otherwise until the Q3 results are out. You can say cars are profitable, lines are profitable, there's a plan (I agree with all of that) but you can not state as fact that they're in profit. You've now made a bet with Adrian C, and you've bet that Q3 will be a loss! Whilst arguing they're in profit!

I have never said they are currently in profit. That is you, yet again, making up false claims.

I've said, for thoroughness, that at present they may (or may not) be in profit.

Please stop changing the narrative in order to lie about what I've said.

almillar wrote: »

Rogue apostrophe. And I'm the one trying to keep it simple.

Nope. You are the one, as I've now shown multiple times, trying to complicate the issue by making false claims and changing the narrative each time you are shown to be wrong.

almillar wrote: »

They may or may not be. As of their LATEST REPORT, they're not. Can we agree that line?

Back to your old tricks (and capitals I see).

We've never disagreed on this, have we?

almillar wrote: »

Disagree. I think it would be reasonable to say 'they've made 'x' quarters of loss, and 2 of profit, therefore they're likely to make a loss. Not as detailed an analysis as yours, but still REASONABLE.

Nope. That would be an unreasonable guess, as it's simply based on the misuse of maths and statistics and fails to take into account that the company has evolved significantly this last year with production having ramped up more than 100%. So relying on past data here would be a very poor way to predict the present and future.

It seems you are again trying to overcomplicate the matter. What is simple is this:-

Elon / Tesla have said that profitability might be reached in Q3.

In the past when production has reached a high enough level, Tesla has become profitable.

Production numbers have ramped up significantly this quarter.

Therefore it's a reasonable guess to say that profits may be reached this quarter. It would be an unreasonable guess to rule out the possibility completely.

almillar wrote: »

This is the only time I made that claim. I wasn't aware they had made a profit 2 quarters in the past. Not a repeated claim. The repeated claim is 'they're not currently in profit' and we're arguing about the meaning of 'current'.

Firstly - it's not the first time, you've done it before, I've quickly scrolled back and found another time (BTW my proper use of referencing makes it easy for you to check, your (deliberate?) poor use makes checking harder.):-

almillar wrote: »

Well... If you can argue that they CAN make a profit in the future, DESPITE not making one now, because they have a plan, why can't someone else argue that they CAN'T make a profit in the future because they haven't done yet?

so once again, your arguments rely on you making false claims and re-writing the narrative. If you kept your comments honest, then our discussion would have ended a week ago.

Secondly - You say you were not aware that they had made profits before, but I've mentioned it several times, as has Z, and even Ade is aware. There have been multiple conversations/comments*.

So your continued false statements rely on you ignoring facts that are posted on here, whilst you attempt to make multiple false claims against me.

almillar wrote: »

(AdrianC)

No, apologies to both AdrianC and Martyn. I admit I've caused confusion here. I said, once, long into the conversation, that Tesla had NEVER been in profit, you corrected me, and Martyn thinks I've repeatedly claimed this - not the case.

It is the case, please see above*. Please stop posting false claims and statements.

Each day I have to point out that everything you are saying, claiming and referring back to, is false, yet every day you come back with more of the same. Are we finally done now?


* Edit - Above, I asked how you could not be aware that Tesla had previously made profits, well it seems I made you aware of this, or at least tried, a while back when Ade also claimed that they had never made a profit, and I asked you for your thoughts. Since then Ade has agreed that profits were previously made. So even when you are asked to check the position, you still fail.

Here is a reference to Ade stating it:

AdrianC wrote: »

They have shown no sign of being able to make a profit so far.

Here is a reference to my asking you:

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Originally Posted by AdrianC View Post
They have shown no sign of being able to make a profit so far.

Do you agree with/support that statement?

And here is a reference to you having considered it:

almillar wrote: »

They have shown no sign of being able to make a profit so far.
Do you agree with/support that statement?

Absolutely not. They're in the early stages of being a car company, plus other ventures funded by a very rich man. There will be losses for 'the first few years'. I've never said that's negative. I just wanted to make sure you've got a grip on reality whilst accusing others of not.

AdrianC

Perhaps, when I said "They have shown no sign of being able to make a profit so far.", I should actually have said "They have shown no sign of being able to report any quarterly non-trivial profit so far."

silverwhistle

Guys, can you get a private room please? Maybe engage a rabbi, priest and imam to help you discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a needle.

My general interest in EVs doesn't extend as far as Tesla's accounts, significant though they may be for the progress of the sector.

Thanks.

Car_54

AdrianC wrote: »

Perhaps, when I said "They have shown no sign of being able to make a profit so far.", I should actually have said "They have shown no sign of being able to report any quarterly non-trivial profit so far."

Quarterly results are useful only as a guide and to encourage optimism/complacency/alarm among the shareholders. They are frequently unaudited, and if so have to be taken with a liberal dose of salt.



The only results that really matter are the annual ones, which are audited, and subject to scrutiny by regulators. These determine whether there are any real profits to return to the investors. To date, such profits have been conspicuously absent.

Herzlos

Interesting article about electric busses. They are so popular in China it's hurting their oil industry.
http://po.st/7AZ3EW

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

Interesting article about electric busses. They are so popular in China it's hurting their oil industry.
http://po.st/7AZ3EW

That might be a bit of an exaggeration.


From that article, they're only 17% of all Chinese buses, saving 233k barrels of oil per day. Sounds a lot, but China produces just under 4 million barrels/day - so that saving is about 6% of all production... And China isn't even self-sufficient in oil. They import another ~8.5m barrels/day, the world's largest crude importer.


That saving is <2% of China's crude oil consumption, and would actually help bring their imports down.

Martyn1981

Herzlos wrote: »

Interesting article about electric busses. They are so popular in China it's hurting their oil industry.
http://po.st/7AZ3EW

That's cool, and they are rolling out 1% of the bus fleet in EV's every 12 weeks or so, so even if production doesn't ramp up, in 20yrs they'll be fully EV. Very impressive.

Worldwide the oil (and other FF) industry is sensitive to market fluctuations as they are a small margin business. Some entire industries could falter if demand (and then price) falls just a bit, as they have narrow profit margins - such as Canadian tar sand oil and US shale oil.

In the US, the leccy generators that use FF's are campaigning for the current EV rule that tax credits begin to reduce/remove when a company sells 200,000 EV cars (in the states), to be removed, as they want more EV's to make up for the loss of demand they are seeing from the roll out of RE.

Tis a funny ole world.

Martyn1981

silverwhistle wrote: »

Guys, can you get a private room please? Maybe engage a rabbi, priest and imam to help you discuss how many angels can dance on the head of a needle.

My general interest in EVs doesn't extend as far as Tesla's accounts, significant though they may be for the progress of the sector.

Thanks.

You are right, but as you say at the end, this is quite an important point in time. Profitability this quarter (or next), might I suggest 'The Hunt for Black October', would help to drive change across the whole car industry as EV's will have achieved the goal - good car, popular car and profitable car - after that we will know that the end is nigh for the ICE, and its long deserved retirement awaits (that'll do pig, that'll do).

So ignore the discussions on accounts etc, but just be aware that the issue will hopefully drive the sector and allow for far more posts about new EV offerings and further company expansions into EV's particularly PEV's.

Edit - Little financial snippet that might interest you, the TM3 was the no.1 selling car in the US last month, by revenue. That's big news because it shows that demand is not only there for EV's in numbers, but also in $'s, so more and more important boxes are getting ticked.

buglawton

I'm not interested in whether hyper-luxury brands that are concurrently experimenting with autonomous drive are making profits during these early EV days.

Instead I'd like to confirm that the manufacturers of bread and butter school run and commuter vehicles are going to be in profit, be able to rapidly expand production and whether EVs are going to be more affordable than ICE to run.

Martyn1981

buglawton wrote: »

I'm not interested in whether hyper-luxury brands that are concurrently experimenting with autonomous drive are making profits during these early EV days.

Instead I'd like to confirm that the manufacturers of bread and butter school run and commuter vehicles are going to be in profit, be able to rapidly expand production and whether EVs are going to be more affordable than ICE to run.

I'd suggest that that is the next step. Tesla have plans (eventually?) to develop the $25k EV. And as per previous discussions we can see that Renault (and I suspect Nissan) are closing in, so their next car, or next major revision of current cars might do just what you want if production is large enough.

Regarding affordability of EV's over ICE's to run, that seems to have been reached already with TOC's showing EV's cheaper than ICE's, with PHEV's a little higher than ICE's, though that might change if PHEV's get larger batts as standard.

I think it's all happening, and hopefully coming to a head now(ish), as each price segment from top down, steadily falls to EV's.