Electric cars

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I'm not sure what that's got to do with what I wrote?

Everything!

For investors to build more RE, they need to know that they can sell it. So when a RE supplier asks for more, more can be built.

Yeeeeessss....

In other words, the more customers that sign up to RE tariffs, the more RE we will get on the grid.

Let's turn that around. If people don't sign up to RE tariffs, RE doesn't get onto the grid? People on non-RE tariffs don't get RE-generated electrickery?

Nope.

Do you think 16% of demand is from people on RE tariffs?

Currently the government has cut pretty much all support for on-shore wind and PV farms, despite them being incredibly popular with the UK populace. So their main opportunity for development now is under a PPA (power purchase agreements), but PPA's need two parties, a supplier and a buyer.

And the buyer is the grid - for as much as can be supplied. The grid needs MORE generation capacity. It can't pick and choose. It does not have that luxury.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Let's turn that around. If people don't sign up to RE tariffs, RE doesn't get onto the grid? People on non-RE tariffs don't get RE-generated electrickery?

Nope.

Do you think 16% of demand is from people on RE tariffs?

The RE on the grid was provided by investors in response to the government FiT, ROC and CfD schemes .... yes?

In May 2015 the Tories got in, and destroyed all three ....... yes?

So who exactly is going to build PV and on-shore wind generation, just to sell to the grid, when there are now no longer any support mechanisms for it ....... yes?

So, to get more on-shore wind and PV (the two cheapest forms of UK generation now (if you include externalities on FF generation)) then you need a buyer for the generation ...... yes?

AdrianC wrote: »

And the buyer is the grid - for as much as can be supplied. The grid needs MORE generation capacity. It can't pick and choose. It does not have that luxury.

Wrong. The grid does pick and choose, it goes for the cheapest first. Since coal appears the cheapest as the externalities hit us via general taxation, then it can appear as low as £25-£35/MWh, whereas it's true cost is nearer to £140/MWh. Gas (with CO2 costs) is around £70-£90/MWh. Current nuclear is heavily subsidised but via general taxation, so those costs also don't appear in the wholesale price.

So PV and on-shore wind at £60-£80/MWh can't make a profit at the artificially low wholesale rates without the subsidy top ups that level the playing field.

I'm sorry, but I suspect you are arguing from a position prior to the changes in the subsidy schemes.

Off-shore wind and nuclear can still compete as the government is supporting them via the CfD mechanism. Hinkley is to get £102/MWh in 2027(ish?), and the latest off-shore wind contracts get £120, though there is enormous speculation that the April CfD's may bring in £100/MWh (or even sub £100) bids as the technology cost is still falling fast.

If you research Good Energy you will see that they commission more renewable energy generation as their customer base expands. Also by partially cutting out the middle man they are hopefully able to build wind farms without subsidies:

Good Energy promises UK's first subsidy-free windfarm

Martyn1981

OK, that all sounds very depressing, so perhaps some good news.

The NAO predict a wholesale price of £70/MWh in 2027 (see page 40), which will drop to £60/MWh by 2035.

Now, whilst that is pretty disastrous for us in terms of nuclear power, as the 35yr HPC CfD of £102/MWh will be starting then, the excellent news is that since the last on-shore wind and PV CfD's came in at £80/MWh 2 years ago (£83/MWh in 2016 monies), costs have continued to fall all over Europe, with Italian wind and German PV both coming in at £60/MWh recently:

Price falls to €69/MWh in latest German PV auction

Italy awards €66/MWh tariff to 800MW of onshore wind

so fingers crossed we can get unsubsidised RE onto the grid once the wholesale price starts to reflect the true cost we are paying for our leccy generation.


More good news, one future issue with renewables is storage, but this thread is discussing EV's. They are most likely to be charging during the day (when parked up and owners are in work), or at night when owners are at home/in bed. This will nicely match PV or wind generation peaks.

So the EV's will act as grid scale storage increasing demand for electricity, and prolonging the time before specialist grid storage is necessary. 1m cars with 30kWh batts would provide 30GWh's of storage, roughly equal to 3x Dinorwig.

AdrianC wrote: »

You've got a big difference between short- and long-term carbon cycles. Burning coal releases carbon that's been locked away for millions of years. Burning fast-grown biomass crops releases carbon that's been locked away for a couple of years.

Even more potentially good news is that Ecotricity's green grass gas idea could cut that cycle down to just a few months:

How Green Gas Works

Theoretically, we could produce 66% of domestic and commercial gas demand from grass on marginal farmland by 2035. So there is vast potential for green gas to make a big contribution in reducing carbon emissions and making Britain more energy independent.

We can harvest naturally occurring grasses from marginal grazing and lower quality arable farmland, increasing biodiversity and providing environmental benefits at the same time.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The RE on the grid was provided by investors in response to the government FiT, ROC and CfD schemes .... yes?

In May 2015 the Tories got in, and destroyed all three ....... yes?

The subsidies were to fill the gap when the technologies were immature and relatively expensive. Costs have fallen dramatically. It's arguable that the removal of the subsidies was late.

So who exactly is going to build PV and on-shore wind generation, just to sell to the grid, when there are now no longer any support mechanisms for it ....... yes?

Plenty of people seem to be very keen.

If you research Good Energy you will see that they commission more renewable energy generation as their customer base expands.

They'd be doing it anyway. You seem to be confusing their two profit centres.

NigeWick

AdrianC wrote: »

Who you buy your electricity from does not affect the generation split.
Who you buy your electricity from does not affect what electricity comes down the line to you.
Who you buy your electricity from ONLY affects the price you pay and the customer service you get.

But, the more people who buy from companies producing and selling renewables will change the split until all energy generated is renewable. When the whole country is on renewables it will be cheaper, apart from paying for the continued storage and care of radioactive waste.

NigeWick

DELETED USER wrote:

Ecotricity: https://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/energy-independence/our-fuel-mix

I was looking at solar but Brexit destroyed by solar PV / Tesla budget virtually overnight.

I'll be moving to Ecotricity when my current contract runs out later this year. Partly to be more green and partly for the discount and motorway charging policy when I own a battery EV.

I looked at solar when the Fit was 43p per kW but didn't want to borrow the money as the payback would have been about 13 years. I had cash a couple of years ago and my £6,300 for a 4kW system will take about 5 years to pay for itself and then another 20 years of free electricity and some profit. Even without FiT i'd still have free electricity after 11 or so years.I believe the expression it's a "no brainer." I am hoping to get in on the http://www.drive-electric.co.uk/2016/09/16/ev-owners-join-electric-nation-community/ trial as long as I get the money to buy an EV soon.

NigeWick

AdrianC wrote: »

There is no massive pile of renewable generation capacity sat unused, waiting for people to sign up to ecotricity. It does not exist.

As more people switch to them they invest in generating more. I agree there is nowhere near enough capacity today but as more people go for renewables there will be more generation of wind and solar.

It's a bit like 400,000 people putting down $/£/Euros/whatever 1,000 to get in the queue for Tesla Model 3. It will not be here for a couple of years but they are prepared to wait and drive whatever it is they are driving now until it arrives.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

The subsidies were to fill the gap when the technologies were immature and relatively expensive. Costs have fallen dramatically. It's arguable that the removal of the subsidies was late.

Not true. The cost of PV and on-shore wind generation is still higher than the wholesale electricity price for the reasons I've already given (FF externalites, nuclear subsidies via taxation not leccy prices), so they can't yet sell profitably. Nobody will build a PV farm at £80/MWh, or even (hopefully) £60/MWh when the current average wholesale price is an artificially low £40/MWh.

AdrianC wrote: »

Plenty of people seem to be very keen.

Not true. PV and on-shore wind rollout has fallen off a cliff. I've given examples where some is taking place via PPA's, but you wrongly claimed that the 'buyer' is the 'grid', which it is not. The buyer is the business to whom that generation is to be supplied, either directly (on-site) or locally via the local grid.

For PPA's try researching Bristol City Council as they have completed a number of them, such as:

BRISTOL CITY COUNCIL COMPLETES PPA PROJECT AT LOCAL STADIUM

AdrianC wrote: »

They'd be doing it anyway. You seem to be confusing their two profit centres.

Yes, commissioning new RE to meet the growing needs of their customer base.


Try taking the issue to the extreme as a test. If 100% of leccy demand was via companies supplying 100% RE, then the UK electricity mix would become 100% RE.

Obviously there are many factors that make this theoretical situation difficult, but the principle is simple, the more RE that is chosen, requested, required, the more RE generation there will be.

NigeWick

Car_54 wrote: »

Indeed. But there has been "quite a bit of research going on" for decades now, with little progress.

Would it not have been sensible to solve the storage problem (if indeed it is soluble) before investing squillions in windfarms etc?

The storage problem is solved staring with batteries. They are rapidly coming down in price. Then there will be a battery car to grid partial solution. Charge on economy 7 and release at peak times. I don't think most people understand how rapidly advancements are being made in the technologies of solar & wind generation and power storage.

Martyn1981

NigeWick wrote: »

The storage problem is solved staring with batteries. They are rapidly coming down in price. Then there will be a battery car to grid partial solution. Charge on economy 7 and release at peak times.

Yep, Nissan already have the V2G system in Japan to support household demand from the car. The potential is simply staggering when you break it down:

The car batts support an 80kW motor, so providing 1 or 2kW to the house is an insignificant load compared to their design rating.

The car batts are already 30kWh, so supplying that draw for 1 or 2 hrs is also insignificant, and should not have a detrimental impact on their life expectancy.

But, 5m cars supplying 1 or 2kW for 2hrs (from 5pm to 7pm) would wipe out the UK peak, dropping demand down to daytime levels, and reducing costs/loads on the local grid.

It also reduces leccy prices which are based on an average, which is pushed up significantly by the evening peak. One supplier is suggesting a 3 price tariff of 5p/kWh night, 12p/kWh day, with a 25p/kWh 4-7pm price.

NigeWick wrote: »

I don't think most people understand how rapidly advancements are being made in the technologies of solar & wind generation and power storage.

Very true. I've always been very positive about all 3, but I've also always been wrong about the speed of the price reductions, it's always been better than I thought possible. PV + storage is accelerating at an incredible rate in Australia, where it can reduce import by 97% (40% without storage), and some networks will pay premium rates to the householder for their leccy storage at peak demand periods.

Hopefully the falling prices will make demand side storage viable in the UK by 2020 - tougher target as our PV generation is about 40% less, and our leccy prices aren't as high.