PM speech on Tuesday - Pound down 5% on Monday?

AnotherJoe

What do you reckon?

I'm thinking every time from now on when a top UK or EU politico postures about Brexit negotiations or lack of, markets will have a kneejerk overreaction one way or the other.

The "hard" Brexit apparently being mooted (I prefer "clean" myself) on Tuesday will drive it down tomorrow I forecast. Then when in a few months time there is talk about access to customs area and some special movement of people, it will go the other way. Then some corrupt Belgian region will vote against allowing UK beer imports without a 500% tariff (because its better than that foul wheat beer muck) and the whole deal will be off, and the Pound crash again.

And this is aside whatever idiotic tweets Trump makes from time to time do to markets.

Welcome to Roller Coaster Markets 2017-2019 !

CLAPTON

for brave people there seems wonderful opportunties to make a lot of money

gfplux

As Brexiteers have said it is only the overvalued pound getting to its true value in the world.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

for brave people there seems wonderful opportunties to make a lot of money

Yes.

Shorting anything British will make people a lot of money should the Tories pursue a hard, chaotic, Brexit and take us out of the single market.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes.

Shorting anything British will make people a lot of money should the Tories pursue a hard, chaotic, Brexit and take us out of the single market.

however, the UK pursuing policies so that
-The UK supreme court becomes the final arbitor of UK law
-The UK parliament making UK laws

will make all the people of the UK more secure, and provide a better quality of life.

because the UK doesn't (yet) control the entire world, irrational financial forces do make it possible for large profits to be made by brave and lucky people.

I would counsel you against shorting everything British but would be every interested in what your own plans are in this regard.
Nothing as convincing as some-one that puts their own words into action.

AnotherJoe

I'm not shorting, but I have reduced my UK assets over the past year or so from maybe 30% to around 5% at a guess, by going into global, mostly ex UK funds.
(Hard to be sure the exact %, and in some cases it's not clear what's a UK asset. Are Vodafone and BP for example?)

chucknorris

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I'm not shorting, but I have reduced my UK assets over the past year or so from maybe 30% to around 5% at a guess, by going into global, mostly ex UK funds.
(Hard to be sure the exact %, and in some cases it's not clear what's a UK asset. Are Vodafone and BP for example?)

I've moved over £200k into cash from my SIPP and ISA (it had to be from there otherwise I would have to pay CGT).

Thrugelmir

Markets react to the news. When has it ever been any different? Much speculative activity is totally unrelated to actual Company performance.

AnotherJoe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Markets react to the news. When has it ever been any different? Much speculative activity is totally unrelated to actual Company performance.

I think the volume of news related solely to the economy (aka Brexit) will be unprecedented for the U.K over the next two to three years, as much of it will be either shock horror the sky is falling or the reverse. So, lots if high points, lots of low points.

wymondham

My Prediction...

Up until Tuesday as press go mad the markets take a hit.... come Tuesday when we know more facts the markets take a hit ......

A few days later markets recover and everything back to normal....

Thrugelmir

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I think the volume of news related solely to the economy (aka Brexit) will be unprecedented for the U.K over the next two to three years, as much of it will be either shock horror the sky is falling or the reverse. So, lots if high points, lots of low points.

Focus on today. Then tomorrow will look after itself. As that's not a problem at the moment. Plenty of challenges already exist that require addressing. That will have far reaching economic and financial impacts.