Will Brexit really be good for Britain?

Doshwaster

Thrugelmir wrote: »

As an observation. The total number of people in employment has fallen. Perhaps a sign of the UK's ageing population.

Do you have a source for this "observation"?

Going by the official Office of National Statistics figures both the employment rate and total number in work is at a record high. Some of this is driven by immigration but it also due to many more women working full or part time than in previous decades and people working later in life.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/dec2016

Masomnia

Doshwaster wrote: »

Do you have a source for this "observation"?

Going by the official Office of National Statistics figures both the employment rate and total number in work is at a record high. Some of this is driven by immigration but it also due to many more women working full or part time than in previous decades and people working later in life.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/dec2016

The headline figure of employment fell by a small amount. You have to look at trends on it because in the context of a survey it's not significant enough to draw conclusions. Still early days...

nkomp18

CLAPTON wrote: »

not one single negative brexit forecast has yet happened.

Of all the times you spouted rubbish, this is one of your worst.

Firstly Brexit will commence after Article 50 is triggered so most negative forecasts are due to take place when that happens and not before.
Also a lot of negative forecasts predict a bad deal with EU, and that can only be estimated at the end of negotiations, that is April 2019 at the very earliest.
Most forecast are for that date onwards. For example, here's a forecast: Government finances were forecast to be £122bn worse off in the period until 2021.
It's not 2021 yet, IS IT?

In the mean time, what pre-Brexit forecasts have come true:

- The fall of the pound (down by 15%)
- Higher inflation (up by 0.7%)
- Slower economy growth (down by 0.2%)

Keep watching this space, and we can talk about which forecasts were right once the UK has finalised the terms of it's [STRIKE]suicide[/STRIKE] exit from the EU.

Thrugelmir

nkomp18 wrote: »

Also a lot of negative forecasts predict a bad deal with EU

Why would the "EU" want a bad deal with the UK. Where's the benefit to them.

Masomnia

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why would the "EU" want a bad deal with the UK. Where's the benefit to them.

It's interesting that it's the Remainers who think the EU will aim for a destructive deal that will make their citizens poorer!

Firetastic

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone who has responded. On the whole I'm getting the idea it really isn't going to be that good.

When I see things like unemployment down blah blah and it being hailed as a good news story. I always say we haven't actually left the EU yet. The effects won't be felt untill we actually invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU in 2019.

That's something I meant to ask. Do you think Britain will return to what it was like before we joined the EU?

Masomnia

Firetastic wrote: »

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone who has responded. On the whole I'm getting the idea it really isn't going to be that good.

When I see things like unemployment down blah blah and it being hailed as a good news story. I always say we haven't actually left the EU yet. The effects won't be felt untill we actually invoke Article 50 and Leave the EU in 2019.

That's something I meant to ask. Do you think Britain will return to what it was like before we joined the EU?

We were told that just holding the referendum would damage the economy due to uncertainty, no evidence of that; then it was a leave vote that would cause an 'instant recession', no evidence of that. Now we're told we haven't triggered A50 yet.... The doom and gloom just keeps getting postponed.

It's interesting that in the wake of the referendum most posters here were predicting a recession. Now it's a lot closer, if anything people coming round to the idea that actually things will probably be fine. No professional commentators as far as I can see are now predicting a recession; slower growth perhaps, but certainly not as a gloomy a picture.

On your last question, clearly not, the world is a very different place.

Thrugelmir

Masomnia wrote: »

It's interesting that in the wake of the referendum most posters here were predicting a recession. Now it's a lot closer, if anything people coming round to the idea that actually things will probably be fine. No professional commentators as far as I can see are now predicting a recession; slower growth perhaps, but certainly not as a gloomy a picture.

The issue for the UK economy is that is highly dependent on consumer spend. A slowdown therefore seems inevitable in the future. Given the squeeze on disposable income and high levels of indebtedness.

Sapphire

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The issue for the UK economy is that is highly dependent on consumer spend. A slowdown therefore seems inevitable in the future. Given the squeeze on disposable income and high levels of indebtedness.

I think that applies to many countries – but yes, indebtedness by individuals has been allowed to go beyond safety limits to too great a degree in this country, a result of the 'instant gratification/must-have' 'culture'. When there is a (probably global) crash, it is difficult to know how many people, let alone banks, will cope…

Thrugelmir

Sapphire wrote: »

I think that applies to many countries

Consumer spend is very specific to the UK when compared to the rest of Europe. One only has to look at the level of restaurant openings in London for example. Trouble is that are those closing are now matching the number of new openings. Seems as saturation point has been reached. A squeeze on disposable incomes can only have a detrimental impact. Austerity is far from over.