How much can house prices keep rising ?

Crashy_Time

singhini wrote: »

I agree - i cant see house prices going down. The government need inflation to go up (they work towards a magic figure of 2% but its only 0.9% at the moment). If inflation increases the BOE need to put interest rates up to make sure it stays at around 2% and doesn't get out of control. Now if they don't put interest rates up high enough inflation will continue to increase and people tend to put money into property since inflation is making their money worthless (well not worthless but diminishing its purchasing power), and houses are viewed as a secure place to put your money (great example are the Russians who are buying property in the UK, they take their money out of Russia where it might not be secure and bring it to the UK where the country is secure. If they make the purchase of the property via a company they have set up, even better as it might save them some tax).

So i predict inflation will go up in 2017 to ~1.5% but interest rates wont go up immediately and this lag will cause house prices to continue to rise.
when inflation dose get to >2% BOE will increase interest rates to ~1.25% but house prices wont go down, their growth will just slow (but not go down).

but what do i know, I'm a drunk

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/misery-for-prime-london-agents-as-land-registry-reveals-latest-transaction-data/


High prices no workey if you cannae sell mate.....:money: Have another drink.....:D

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

Only if you have very limited interests or are tired of life.
There's plenty of free stuff you can do for years that doesn't involve art.



People are in London primarily for the jobs - either the well paying ones or the large number of low paid ones.

What do you think is going to stop an increasing population or stop our economy being so London centric.
Believe me I'd like it to be less London centric but it a vicious or virtuous circle depending on your point of view.
The jobs attra t the talent which attract the jobs.
What are you predicting us going to stop high house prices?

Many people are in London because they just don`t know any better IMO, they could have a far better quality of life elsewhere, and visit if they felt the need to look at a painting (no galleries or culture anywhere else in the UK of course ) or sniff a waxwork. Anyway I will be in London tomorrow, might have a sniff round Wood Green and see how many desperate kite flyers have their signs out......:rotfl:


What is going to stop high house prices is people not buying houses with high prices anymore. It is already happening.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Many people are in London because they just don`t know any better IMO, they could have a far better quality of life elsewhere, and visit if they felt the need to look at a painting (no galleries or culture anywhere else in the UK of course ) or sniff a waxwork. Anyway I will be in London tomorrow, might have a sniff round Wood Green and see how many desperate kite flyers have their signs out......:rotfl:


What is going to stop high house prices is people not buying houses with high prices anymore. It is already happening.

What is your opinion on why people are in London based on?
The people I know (obvious a limited number) are here either for niche careers (government, high end designer fashion, finance) or for superior jobs in their field e.g. IT, which can be found elsewhere but not always with the same quantity, choice, prospects pay etc.

I live in 2 places and I don't think it's markedly better elsewhere, it's just different and there are pros and cons.
Career choices, public transport etc. Are generally much worse and congestion and parking (in places such and bath, Bristol) aren't any better than London. Obviously some places will appeal to some people more than others.
If you look at demand as an obvious indicator of where people want to be (all things considered) then it's pretty obvious that loads of people in their millions are choosing to be in London and the SE.
Why is that if it's markedly better elsewhere?
Answer - It's simply not markedly better elsewhere overall (all things considered).

As I said - I don't believe anyone is there primarily for cultural reasons - it's just a bonus when you are here for other reasons.

Loads of my friends on Facebook (from various areas including wales and Scotland) are suffering traffic jams, thieves, flooding, anti-social behaviour, terrible internet, so it's no better just different.

lisyloo

What's your evidence for saying people not buying houses at high prices.
This is very recent data and doesn't match what you say

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/578042/UK_Tables_Dec__cir_.pdf

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

What is your opinion on why people are in London based on?
The people I know (obvious a limited number) are here either for niche careers (government, high end designer fashion, finance) or for superior jobs in their field e.g. IT, which can be found elsewhere but not always with the same quantity, choice, prospects pay etc.

I live in 2 places and I don't think it's markedly better elsewhere, it's just different and there are pros and cons.
Career choices, public transport etc. Are generally much worse and congestion and parking (in places such and bath, Bristol) aren't any better than London. Obviously some places will appeal to some people more than others.
If you look at demand as an obvious indicator of where people want to be (all things considered) then it's pretty obvious that loads of people in their millions are choosing to be in London and the SE.
Why is that if it's markedly better elsewhere?
Answer - It's simply not markedly better elsewhere overall (all things considered).

As I said - I don't believe anyone is there primarily for cultural reasons - it's just a bonus when you are here for other reasons.

Loads of my friends on Facebook (from various areas including wales and Scotland) are suffering traffic jams, thieves, flooding, anti-social behaviour, terrible internet, so it's no better just different.

They don`t pay a massive premium on housing themselves for the privilege though?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

What's your evidence for saying people not buying houses at high prices.
This is very recent data and doesn't match what you say

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/578042/UK_Tables_Dec__cir_.pdf

The volumes are WAY down, and BTW when I booked hotels and flights to London for this trip prices were also WAY down on earlier in the year when I was last there, that tells me something is also afoot with the numbers visiting as well as buying property in the city.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

They don`t pay a massive premium on housing themselves for the privilege though?

Generally prices are cheaper outside London and the SE, but people still flock here everyday in their millions which is why I said ALL things considered i.e. Most people do consider the Higher house prices in their calculations.

Personally I can say that the higher wages we are getting MORE than compensate for the housing costs by some margin and that's true for a lot of the people in well paid jobs (that's why they are there and not somewhere else - if you're a stock broker or accountant I think it's fair to assume you can do the maths on earnings vs house prices equation).

Not everyone pays a massive premium, some people live in not so nice areas and millions choose to commute from cheaper areas.
Not ideal and definitely a compromise but I dispute that everyone is paying a premium - many make a sacrifice in other ways such as commute, space, quality of accommodation, or quality of area but not always financially, for example I have a 5bed dream home in the shires, but an adequate 1 bed flat in PCL, it is NOT more expensive in nominal terms, but lower quality and less space.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The volumes are WAY down, and BTW when I booked hotels and flights to London for this trip prices were also WAY down on earlier in the year when I was last there, that tells me something is also afoot with the numbers visiting as well as buying property in the city.

Can you give me an example of where the volumes are down e.g. Page number in that publication I quoted as I didn't see that when I looked.

It's we'll known that foreign tourist numbers are up because of the fall in sterling, but I don't know what currency you booked in.

I'd certainly be interested in any stats you have that show house price going down (barring the luxury stuff which we know has been hit by stamp duty changes).

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Many people are in London because they just don`t know any better IMO, they could have a far better quality of life elsewhere

Some people want more out of a life than instant gratification, they are willing to work hard and to sacrifice early in their careers, i.e. invest in themselves for a better future. I've never been the sort that spent all his salary on expensive cars, expensive holidays, latest gadgets and high fashion. The main reason that I moved to London (from Newcastle) after graduating was for faster career advancement, a graduate working in a profession that works hard in London should experience rapid career advancement.

Life isn't just about enjoying yourself 24/7, I know that might not be everyone's philosophy, but it was certainly mine to work harder when I was younger, so that I could have a better lifestyle later on. I originally retired when I was 42, I only went back into working 10 years later at 52, as a part time lecturer because I WANTED to, and now 6 years later I am only working one day a week. I consider that a much better working pattern than working full time all of my working life. Also when you are younger you can both work hard and also play hard too, I certainly did.

lisyloo

The volumes are WAY down

I am still waiting for a single shred of evidence of this.
It's not enough to just insist your point of view is correct.