How much can house prices keep rising ?

Rich2808

AdrianC wrote: »

London has been a target for migration ever since it was founded, both from elsewhere within the country and from outside. There have been waves of foreign migrants since at least the Huguenots in the 16th and 17th century.

As for the "native-born", the population of London has been declining since the second world war, albeit with a kick up since a hundred-year-low in the early '90s. It's still below the historic high currently.



FWIW, did you know that it's technically impossible for any cockneys to be born within the NHS any more, since maternity services moved from Guys, the only hospital within earshot of the church bells of St Mary-le-Bow, on Cheapside? St Thomas's, where they moved to, is too far away.

Yes London has always been a city of migrants but the scale of change in the last 30 years - particularly the last 15 has dwarfed anything previously. London was over 95 per cent white British in the 1960s but now it's 45 per cent and dropping daily. And if you exclude those aged over 50 much less than that.

You refer to the Huguenots but their numbers spread over 30 or so years is probably equivalent to the levels London now sees every six weeks.

To say recent trends are typical is ridiculous!

Masomnia

AFF8879 wrote: »

And the enormous amount of skilled jobs that pay more than anywhere else in the country...

I think there is more polarisation in London, though. You're likely to be either super rich or at least financially very comfortable, or poor / struggling to make ends meet.

I do sometimes wonder how all the people performing low-skilled work such as cleaning, delivery drivers etc manage to live in such an expensive city. When I first moved here after graduating I started on £32k, above the national average but boy was money tight even though I was flat-sharing. God knows how people on £15-£18k, or sometimes less, manage here.

If I was mayor I would abandon these silly HTB schemes that only serve to inflate prices further and provide subsidised rental accommodation (small flats / nice standard HMOs) to key service workers e.g. Teachers, doctors, nurses etc. :beer:

I remember Zac Goldsmith saying it as part of his campaign, if you're poor or rich housing is affordable; if you're rich because obviously you can afford it and if you're poor because Housing Benefit covers your rent. It's the majority of people in the middle who struggle with it.

Aside from housing I think London being ridiculously expensive is exaggerated a bit. You can eat out cheaply at loads of local places, there is plenty of free stuff to do in the centre, and it's not as if food costs more.

mwpt

Masomnia wrote: »

Aside from housing I think London being ridiculously expensive is exaggerated a bit. You can eat out cheaply at loads of local places, there is plenty of free stuff to do in the centre, and it's not as if food costs more.

Pints have gone up in price over the years, but eating out seems almost to have stayed the same in nominal terms as years ago, which means it's getting cheaper.

Transport is expensive and creppy, but it isn't insurmountable. I can get by very cheaply in London, housing costs aside, and even that I feel I've got a pretty good repayment deal on my mortgage. I'm putting away a lot of money each month. Roughly 50% of my net "pay".

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Pints have gone up in price over the years, but eating out seems almost to have stayed the same in nominal terms as years ago, which means it's getting cheaper.

Transport is expensive and creppy, but it isn't insurmountable. I can get by very cheaply in London, housing costs aside, and even that I feel I've got a pretty good repayment deal on my mortgage. I'm putting away a lot of money each month. Roughly 50% of my net "pay".

I have to agree that non housing living expenses are no more expensive in London that the provinces : in fact a decent meal in London can be cheaper due to the emormous number and variety of places to eat

padington

The free things to do in London is like a free £20 every day you can be bothered to enjoy it.

Who would want to be unemployed on the Kent coast when you could be in London?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

in fact a decent meal in London can be cheaper due to the emormous number and variety of places to eat

How many of those places to eat are there because of immigrants?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

How many of those places to eat are there because of immigrants?

given london is 40% immigrant one would image more than 40%
I'm sure that is an adequate compensation for not being able to afford a family sized house until you're 50

GreatApe

mwpt wrote: »

I do wonder about trends in cities vs rural locations. I'm not that experienced but I do believe there was recently a time when it became more popular to move out to the burbs while prices in cities stagnated or dropped. This didn't seem to be a London phenomenon, pretty sure it was global, or at least in many western countries.

Something changed where concentrating back into cities became popular again. Seems as though it is probably jobs related as advanced countries became more services economies rather than manufacturing and needed less land for this but it was helpful for businesses to locate together (ie. cities).

I wonder if there will be a change in this again in due course? Let's take a huge speculative thought on transport. Imagine that some ultra efficient energy source and battery technology is invented, autonomous vehicles become the norm and some efficient flight mechanism. I could imagine people using this as an opportunity to spread out a bit more again. Cities may not always be so popular.

Its something I thought about for quite some time. With autonomous cars reducing door to door travil time and costs surely people will spread out. However I dont think this anymore.

Inner London is expensive because rich people want to buy expensive property and be near other rich people.

In the same way people buy £50,000 mechanical watches that are no better at time keeping than a £5 digital casio.

Also there is probably something to do with age of having the first kid. In the past if people had a kid in the mid 20s maybe there was a bigger incentive to move to the quiet clean country. Now if they are 40 for the first kid they have already purchased in london and dont want to move out for multiple reasons

GreatApe

CLAPTON wrote: »

given london is 40% immigrant one would image more than 40%
I'm sure that is an adequate compensation for not being able to afford a family sized house until you're 50

Now that brexit vote has won how long do two new teacher in Hackney need to wait for the £1m terrace to fall to an affordable (for them) £150k?

GreatApe

CLAPTON wrote: »

21year old essential workers soon become 25 years old or even 30 year olds who really don't want to live in HMOs but desire their own place of even a family sized home to start a family.

HMOs exist in the cheapest parts of the country too which goes to show its not something that happens where property or rents are expensive.

I known one landlord with HMOs in the Midlands (where a decent 3 bed terrace within walking time of the town centre and offices) cost £90-110k. Most of his tenant are professionals. One particular HMO had 4 actuaries and 2 accountants in it. All of them can afford to buy a 3 bed house on their own but to date haven't. They clearly seem to find the arrangement to their liking.


Also as you probably know London is 24% social stock there aren't many doctors or judges or film starts living in a council flat in London. Why can't the 'poor but essential people' be put inside these 850,000 properties?