The economic consequences of a Trump US Presidential Victory?

masterwilde

what will happen is a given, the Dollar will fall against all major currencies. The american markets will freefall 5-10% with certain stocks going against the curve.

That will continue with uncertainty until he takes office and his policies are not just known but analysed. Only then will the uncertainty end and either rise or fall.

We do know if Hilary comes to power then the USA will continue on its current path and the $20 trillion debt will keep rising and status quo remains

paddyrg

All bets will be off - Trump still doesn't have any real policies that aren't clearly insane, ineffective jingoism

jimjames

michaels wrote: »

Any more big picture forecasts? The question is not about what should happen but what might/will happen given a result that until recenty was considered less likely.

I think the problem is that if Trump wins, no one knows what will happen. That's normally the case with markets but when someone is elected that is so temperamentally unsuited to that office and has such irrational outbursts and downright denials of absolute facts, it will be a very difficult one to predict anything.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Any more big picture forecasts? The question is not about what should happen but what might/will happen given a result that until recenty was considered less likely.

Trump reduces US Corporation tax rates to 15%. Resulting in US Corporations repatriating low skilled work back to to the USA. As no longer any cost benefit. In turn this will hit Asia across the board.

michaels

I'm feeling very brexit today. Looking at the realclearpolitics by state polling electoral college is knife edge and it only needs a few...or even one.... big 'not usual voter' or 'shy trumps' states to push it hs way - and yet because of the BBC position ('how could anyone in their right mind back Trump so lets not consider the possibility of a Trump win) in the UK we have no knowledge of what a Trump presidency might mean short or longer term :eek:

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

I'm feeling very brexit today. Looking at the realclearpolitics by state polling electoral college is knife edge and it only needs a few...or even one.... big 'not usual voter' or 'shy trumps' states to push it hs way - and yet because of the BBC position ('how could anyone in their right mind back Trump so lets not consider the possibility of a Trump win) in the UK we have no knowledge of what a Trump presidency might mean short or longer term :eek:

US politics is alien. Big money with lots of behind the scenes lobbying for favours.

Hintza

michaels wrote: »

Any more big picture forecasts?

If Clinton loses:-

Defence and defence related stocks will crash.

Steel and metal bashing will rise.

Building stocks in Texas will rise. They will have a big infrastructure project to build

Tech stocks (outsourced) will take a hit.

StevieJ

First vote in Clinton 50% Trump 25%
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/results-first-town-us-vote-170831531.html

Hillary Clinton swept to victory with half of the votes – only time will tell whether the whole country mirrors Dixville’s political leanings.

Crashy_Time

StevieJ wrote: »

First vote in Clinton 50% Trump 25%
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/results-first-town-us-vote-170831531.html

I`ll stick my neck out and say it won`t be similar in the towns and states that count, and ask - What % did Obama get there the last couple of times?

Filo25

I don't know if even Trump knows what he would do if he was President, never mind the rest of us.

My suspicion remains that in spite of all the talk of helping the little guy on the economic front it would eventually just be a typical Republican agenda of slashing taxes for the rich combined with more some pretty unpleasant social rhetoric, in the short run though the markets will run scared, everyone hates uncertainty.

Its certainly a more uncertain election that past ones as the voting demographics have changed since 2012, more white working class support for Trump, but he's lost support with pretty much all other groups.

I suspect he will lose Florida, the Hispanic vote is unsurprisingly highly motivated this time around, and that leaves him with a mountain to climb, he will probably need a great performance in the North East/ Midwest to win it, its not impossible but it won't be easy for him.

I might have had money on Brexit, but I won't be betting on Trump at the odds being offered.