The economic consequences of a Trump US Presidential Victory?

michaels

SO lets assume that Trump wins the White House and the republicans hold onto both houses.

What on earth will happen to the economy in the short and medium terms. My guess the markets have pretty much priced in a democratic victory so we are talking a change in sentiment of Brexit proportions.

Would we see equity markets crash?

Could that catch out some banks and lead to GFC style financial instability?

How about longer term - will we see trade deals abandoned and protectionism? Will we see he US use its financial muscle to impose 'unfair' terms on its trading parters with a 'our way or no way' negotiating stance?

What would the impact be for the UK, a relatively small economy with relatively large exposure to the US?

Does anyone have a clue?

Herzlos

I think they'll drop whilst everyone tries to figure out what's going on, then recover a bit until he does something completely stupid.

Conrad

I've said for a while Clinton is a gift for the UK economy. Investment will likely plummet under her new corporation tax plans let alone the raft of business regulation she has in the ready.

One of the failures of the US economy has been its ability to stop corporation flight, setting up in places such as Ireleand, so you can imagine with her in charge, this flight will only accelerate.

It's one of the reason the UK is set to really boom. Trump is more naturally inclined to being business freindly but he has some real protectionist plans which could also play havoc.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

There was a "brain drain" from US universities under Bush (especially over stem cell research); that could happen again and would be to the UK's advantage.

How likely is it that Trump's crowd pleasers can actually come into force though; realistically there's not going to be a wall on the Mexican border, and Apple won't be moving factories from China to the Rust Belt? It's all guff and bluster surely?

Crashy_Time

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

There was a "brain drain" from US universities under Bush (especially over stem cell research); that could happen again and would be to the UK's advantage.

How likely is it that Trump's crowd pleasers can actually come into force though; realistically there's not going to be a wall on the Mexican border, and Apple won't be moving factories from China to the Rust Belt? It's all guff and bluster surely?

Clinton you mean? They said Trump had no chance when he started out, look where that prediction ended :rotfl: He is tapping something much deeper than the normal Punch and Judy politics to get this far that`s for sure, and Clinton looking dodgier by the day is not helping her pick up votes?

Thrugelmir

Plenty of protectionism already in the US. Quick to raise tariffs when internal markets come under threat from cheap overseas competition.

Perhaps like the UK. The US needs a good shake up. Too much self interest rules to the detriment of the wider populace.

DiggerUK

The economy and market place are a law to themselves.

What happens after the election will not be decided in any meaningful, or durable fashion, by houses of this, that, or the other one.

HC or DT will be faced with what is still an insurmountable problem......the unresolved issues from the blow up after 2007.
Taking office and walking in to a rekindled boom, that still has legs on it, won't last. That boom will still go bust at some point..._

michaels

I knew the answer was shiny precious metals...now, what was the question?

padington

I reckon ...

Markets will freeze in bewilderment, then crash a bit, then fluctuate like crazy upon every odd announcement trump makes.

Some Russian investments might do quite well. European markets might feel new pressures.

I imagine, we would do ok out of a trump victory based on possible new leverage it could give for Brexit negotiations.

masterwilde

anyone who wants Hilary to win is living in the recent past. its about time it changes and i will be cheering trump through tuesday night and have put my money where my mouth backing trump on betfair

michaels

masterwilde wrote: »

anyone who wants Hilary to win is living in the recent past. its about time it changes and i will be cheering trump through tuesday night and have put my money where my mouth backing trump on betfair

So one economic consequence is that you will trouser some readies at Betfair.

Any more big picture forecasts? The question is not about what should happen but what might/will happen given a result that until recenty was considered less likely.