The economic consequences of a Trump US Presidential Victory?

Trumpeter

Gavin83 wrote: »

I have to ask, how do you feel about getting yet another political prediction wrong? Hope you didn't place any bets!

I think you'll find that we've all placed our bets whether we wanted to or not. Anyone who uses public services, has a mortgage or a pension already has a huge stake in the outcome.

Better hope that you're right because at the moment, there is NO clear evidence one way or the other. But the preferred solution seems to be that the "experts" aren't doing any good so surely "amateurs" can't be any worse.

We might be at the front of The Donald's trade deal talks but would you really want to buy a used car from that man?

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

Both Putin and Trump court populism to defend extremism and their own ugly brands of nationalism. The oldest trick in the book. Trump totally lied to the American electorate and pretended that he has the answers of the failure of capitalism to value them or protect their interests. He's a snake oil salesman selling hate and there has always been a huge pool of people who can be conned into acting against their own self interest because hate is a powerful thing. Adolf knew better than anyone.

presumably your ideal world is where everyone acts in their own self interest?
presumably 'their own self interest' is of course defined by you?

I agree that Trump is an unpleasent development but his policies (as far as we know them) are best beaten by rational arguments, that better address the concerns of the people, rather than by the usual concensus elite lecturing the people. Telling people they are stupid and hate filled is unlikely to be a winning formula for people with real concerns about their lives.

Conrad

Moby wrote: »

Both Putin and Trump court populism to defend extremism and their own ugly brands of nationalism.

Your statement is standard and very tired cookie-cutter stuff, pretty much 1983 Polytechnic language.


The liberal cult needs a big update, it's thinking and narratives are way past sell by.

TrickyTree83

Moby wrote: »

Both Putin and Trump court populism to defend extremism and their own ugly brands of nationalism. The oldest trick in the book. Trump totally lied to the American electorate and pretended that he has the answers of the failure of capitalism to value them or protect their interests. He's a snake oil salesman selling hate and there has always been a huge pool of people who can be conned into acting against their own self interest because hate is a powerful thing. Adolf knew better than anyone.

The only people claiming he is selling hate are those on the left.

Show us a list of his hateful policies in your opinion, then we'll search out the actual policy and see if it's hateful.

The brand of politics on the left will be shown to be broken, constantly spinning stories with empty vitriol (as you have just done) and this is turning people away from the left.

Gavin83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A year of a temporary populist blip in no way makes your blinkered worldview even remotely accurate.

Let's be honest here you haven't exactly been accurate in your predictions so far have you? Firstly you predicted the referendum wouldn't even happen, then it did. Then you predicted we'd vote to remain, then we didn't. Then you predicted Trump wouldn't win the election and we all saw how that turned out. Therefore you'll have to excuse me if I can't take your claims on accuracy seriously.

It's not about my worldview or even opinions, it's about what's been happening politically across the globe and so far you've been massively off the mark. Don't beat yourself up too much though, the 'experts' have mostly agreed with you.

I don't even like Trump but I'm not at all surprised he won.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Anti-EU parties will not become the majority party of government in any of the countries you listed. None of them will vote to leave the EU.

By 2020 the number of countries with membership of the Single Market will be the same as it is today.

The current fad for populism will be over in a few years once it becomes abundantly clear the populist leaders/movements have lied through their teeth and cannot deliver any material change to people's lives.

Sounds like another prediction! I guess time will tell who is the more accurate on this one.

TrickyTree83

Gavin83 wrote: »

Let's be honest here you haven't exactly been accurate in your predictions so far have you? Firstly you predicted the referendum wouldn't even happen, then it did. Then you predicted we'd vote to remain, then we didn't. Then you predicted Trump wouldn't win the election and we all saw how that turned out. Therefore you'll have to excuse me if I can't take your claims on accuracy seriously.

It's not about my worldview or even opinions, it's about what's been happening politically across the globe and so far you've been massively off the mark. Don't beat yourself up too much though, the 'experts' have mostly agreed with you.

I don't even like Trump but I'm not at all surprised he won.



Sounds like another prediction! I guess time will tell who is the more accurate on this one.

I'll never forget Hamish's prediction of a recession that would dwarf what happened in the 2008 financial crash if we voted to leave the EU. Something like 1.7m repossessions which was many times larger than that of the 2008 financial crash, including the 3 years after 2008. You can add that to the list of stellar predictions.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Your statement is standard and very tired cookie-cutter stuff, pretty much 1983 Polytechnic language.


The liberal cult needs a big update, it's thinking and narratives are way past sell by.

Which bit of the Liberal cult do you have a major issue with Conrad, because by my recollection your posts on the EU were largely in favour leaving the protectionist block behind and enjoying the benefits in terms of global free trade.

How does that tie into appearing to support probably the most anti- Free trade President of recent memory?

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

presumably your ideal world is where everyone acts in their own self interest?
presumably 'their own self interest' is of course defined by you?

I agree that Trump is an unpleasent development but his policies (as far as we know them) are best beaten by rational arguments, that better address the concerns of the people, rather than by the usual concensus elite lecturing the people. Telling people they are stupid and hate filled is unlikely to be a winning formula for people with real concerns about their lives.

Looking at the campaign form afar it certainly did seem to be lowest common denominator stuff from both sides, although US elections often seem to be even more negative than we are used to here.

I'm not sure if its the case that voters aren't really interested in arguments which take more than a sentence to sum up or if its just that politicians think that's the case but either way it tends to lead to campaigns that cost a small fortune while offering surprisingly little policy substance.

On the protectionist front it will be interesting to see if Trump's professed antipathy to free trade is only really aimed at Emerging markets where US Labour costs can obviously be significantly undercut, or whether it is a broader protectionist agenda.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

How does that tie into appearing to support probably the most anti- Free trade President of recent memory?

Why the hang up with trade. Trade isn't the be all and end all. Far more important matters to be addressed.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Which bit of the Liberal cult do you have a major issue with Conrad, because by my recollection your posts on the EU were largely in favour leaving the protectionist block behind and enjoying the benefits in terms of global free trade.

How does that tie into appearing to support probably the most anti- Free trade President of recent memory?

I and people like Trump are all for trade deals as long as they aren't counter-productive and self harming.


The Chinese are terrified of Trump, I saw this video of him saying how he will deal with them, and I reckon he will get a better balance as a result. Too many trade deals harm western nations unnecessarily