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The economic consequences of a Trump US Presidential Victory?
Comments
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vivatifosi wrote: »The other thing I should have mentioned is that GM has announced layoffs, bad news for the Rustbelt. I'd imagine that they would have been planned for a while though.
Oh, and control of the judiciary will get a lot more conservative. Due to the ages of the judges this is a pivotal time so could agenda set for a couple of decades.
That's what I've picked up from the news today anyhow.
I don't understand how giving a bunch of NY/NJ politicians such as Giuliano and Christie is going to help the hurting middle.
the next 20 years is going to be golden a time of vast technological progress and the people who hold onto power during that time can claim it as their doing/fostering even if it has FA to do with them and their policies.0 -
the next 20 years is going to be golden a time of vast technological progress and the people who hold onto power during that time can claim it as their doing/fostering even if it has FA to do with them and their policies.
Non techies may hear of what is going on with AI and deep learning but I'm not sure they fully grasp it. For about 20 years I've had an interest in AI, my masters was in a sub-field, and people have been over optimistic in the past but at this point there are a few things converging:
* GPU computing power is at the point and will only get better where it is enabling very interesting stuff. There are now mainstream and non mainstream hardware designers specifically targeting AI, so chips are becoming specialised. (PS: perhaps look to invest in a hardware company who will profit from this, eg. NVIDIA)
* Because of the above, certain older techniques have become refined and able to do things impossible before (backpropagation and deep learning are not new, but they are being improved rapidly)
* Open source is huge. It is enabling just about anyone to jump into the field. Not only does this mean that we leverage the power of many more minds but it has a reinforcement effect because it forces big companies to invest seriously (or acquire) in the tech.
Combine that with people like Musk. He is a bit overblown but he is still pushing boundaries and the cool thing is, forcing others to do the same. If battery technology can be improved, and it is, this will be revolutionary in itself.
Tech stocks all dropped on Trump's victory because he isn't seen as terribly friendly to this sector. But who knows what he'll do. At worst he's going to delay things but I certainly hope (in vain probably) that people don't attribute the upcoming productivity boost to the naive lurch to anti-liberal policies.
Point: I agree with GreatApe, massive advances are coming and as evidence from the rest of history, most of humanity will profit on average from this. Don't attribute this to morons like Trump and Boris.0 -
Non techies may hear of what is going on with AI and deep learning but I'm not sure they fully grasp it. For about 20 years I've had an interest in AI, my masters was in a sub-field, and people have been over optimistic in the past but at this point there are a few things converging:
* GPU computing power is at the point and will only get better where it is enabling very interesting stuff. There are now mainstream and non mainstream hardware designers specifically targeting AI, so chips are becoming specialised. (PS: perhaps look to invest in a hardware company who will profit from this, eg. NVIDIA)
* Because of the above, certain older techniques have become refined and able to do things impossible before (backpropagation and deep learning are not new, but they are being improved rapidly)
* Open source is huge. It is enabling just about anyone to jump into the field. Not only does this mean that we leverage the power of many more minds but it has a reinforcement effect because it forces big companies to invest seriously (or acquire) in the tech.
Combine that with people like Musk. He is a bit overblown but he is still pushing boundaries and the cool thing is, forcing others to do the same. If battery technology can be improved, and it is, this will be revolutionary in itself.
Tech stocks all dropped on Trump's victory because he isn't seen as terribly friendly to this sector. But who knows what he'll do. At worst he's going to delay things but I certainly hope (in vain probably) that people don't attribute the upcoming productivity boost to the naive lurch to anti-liberal policies.
Point: I agree with GreatApe, massive advances are coming and as evidence from the rest of history, most of humanity will profit on average from this. Don't attribute this to morons like Trump and Boris.
presumably these tech changes will still require a continuing massive immigration of young inexperienced people from Europe?0 -
Non techies may hear of what is going on with AI and deep learning but I'm not sure they fully grasp it. For about 20 years I've had an interest in AI, my masters was in a sub-field, and people have been over optimistic in the past but at this point there are a few things converging:
* GPU computing power is at the point and will only get better where it is enabling very interesting stuff. There are now mainstream and non mainstream hardware designers specifically targeting AI, so chips are becoming specialised. (PS: perhaps look to invest in a hardware company who will profit from this, eg. NVIDIA)
* Because of the above, certain older techniques have become refined and able to do things impossible before (backpropagation and deep learning are not new, but they are being improved rapidly)
* Open source is huge. It is enabling just about anyone to jump into the field. Not only does this mean that we leverage the power of many more minds but it has a reinforcement effect because it forces big companies to invest seriously (or acquire) in the tech.
Combine that with people like Musk. He is a bit overblown but he is still pushing boundaries and the cool thing is, forcing others to do the same. If battery technology can be improved, and it is, this will be revolutionary in itself.
Tech stocks all dropped on Trump's victory because he isn't seen as terribly friendly to this sector. But who knows what he'll do. At worst he's going to delay things but I certainly hope (in vain probably) that people don't attribute the upcoming productivity boost to the naive lurch to anti-liberal policies.
Point: I agree with GreatApe, massive advances are coming and as evidence from the rest of history, most of humanity will profit on average from this. Don't attribute this to morons like Trump and Boris.
I've long been interest in AI.
A significant barrier, often not mentioned by AI experts, is that a chip is not embodied, and thus the way it learns is utterly different from the way a Human infant does.
An infant learns moment to moment through a combination of expressions, sound, vision, touch, feel, emotion, taste etc.
A relentless feedback of intricate impulses.
An infant will soon learn to distinguish between a bag blowing across his path and a boulder. Elon Musks cars struggle with this sort of thing - the recent death was due to one being unable to distinguish a white truck against a white sky.
Until AI is properly embodied and experiential it's going to remain limited. I believe some are working on this.
Feeding binary code into a lump of silicon is never going to produce worthwhile meaningful intelligence.
I always think of this example of AI limitation; A client of mine came in here and I said to help herself to tea / coffee and make me one if she wanted, lol. She replied 'oh and I'll answer the bloody phones too shall I'!
I can imagine it will be some time before an AI bot would recognise she was not asking a serious question as to whether she should answer the phones for me as it would not be able to decipher proper context and intonation0 -
glad that your automation doesn't have any effect on jobs or the demand for labour.
great news but what exactly will they be doing?
Disruptive technology has long been with us, but I think the worry now is the scale and speed of it.
Lots of examples now of a handful of capital holders together with their Banker advisors, seeking out age old transactional landscapes with a view to deliberately removing income from the many and into the hands of these few folk living up in Elysium.
UBER is an example of this - London cab fares diverted out of London pockets and into a handful of shareholders in California. At a stroke a mass of black cabbies which was always a good means to significant self improvement, is under massive threat
Globalisation is bad enough, if you also crush peoples livelihoods with technological intrusion, you have a massive issue0 -
most of humanity will profit on average from this. Don't attribute this to morons like Trump and Boris.
They haven't over the past 20 years. Those employed in the industry do. The remainder pick up up the crumbs.Calling the President of the USA a moron. Suggests you yourself are very opinionated and hold very narrow views. Sometimes better to have an open mind. Judge on actions not media coverage.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »They haven't over the past 20 years. Those employed in the industry do. The remainder pick up up the crumbs.Calling the President of the USA a moron. Suggests you yourself are very opinionated and hold very narrow views. Sometimes better to have an open mind. Judge on actions not media coverage.
Humanity has benefited immensely in the last 20 years. Stop falling for zerohedge silly doom stories. Trump is a moron. I usually call bigots morons.0
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