UK Quarter 3 2016 GDP +0.5%

BobQ

worldtraveller wrote: »

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 compared with growth of 0.7% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016.

GDP was 2.3% higher in Quarter 3 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

This is the first release of GDP covering a full quarter of data following the EU referendum.

The pattern of growth continues to be broadly unaffected following the EU referendum with a strong performance in the services industries offsetting falls in other industrial groups.

In Quarter 3 2016, the services industries increased by 0.8%. In contrast, output decreased in the other 3 main industrial groups with construction decreasing by 1.4%, agriculture decreasing by 0.7% and production decreasing by 0.4%, within which manufacturing decreased by 1.0%.

ONS

The Bank of England forecasted 0.3% growth only 6 weeks ago, which was already up from the previous even lower estimate of 0.1%.

I await the the figures being reduced as more data become available. These figures are provisional as always.

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just a point, but Cameron could have implemented Article 50 straight away. The treasury were simply pedaling scare tactics.

To achieve what precisely. Except a complete state of chaos in the markets. Get real and use some common sense.

setmefree2

The_Last_Username wrote: »

To all you mongers of doom I apologise now.
Because here is some more good news:

"Oct 27 British retail sales rebounded in October to grow at their fastest rate in over a year, after an end to unseasonably warm weather boosted demand for autumn clothing, an industry survey showed on Thursday.
The Confederation of British Industry's retail sales balance
surged to +21 from September's reading of -8, far outstripping economists' forecasts of a pick-up to -2."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-retail-idUKKCN12R15D


Despite the predictions of a generally gloomy nature, it seems that the great British public have not been scared into not spending their money.

Getting hysterical about inflation (like the Remoaners have been doing) will just drive everyone to the shops.... nothing like tellling people that prices are going to go 10plus % to make everyone want to fill their boots...

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If May triggers article 50 and negotiates to stay in the single market then problem solved - the forecast will be invalid because nothing will have changed - if she triggers Article 50 and takes us out of the single market then the economy will tank quicker than UKIP's last leader lasted in office.:cool:

Well that won't happen for at least 2 and a half years and an awful lot can change in that time frame.....

setmefree2

BobQ wrote: »

I await the the figures being reduced as more data become available. These figures are provisional as always.

or they could go up.....

Graham_Devon

Thrugelmir wrote: »

To achieve what precisely. Except a complete state of chaos in the markets. Get real and use some common sense.

Did you not read the sentence directly below what you quoted?

Where I said implementing it immediately would be ridiculous? (and therefore, why the treasury thought this would be the case, heaven only knows).

setmefree2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Did you not read the sentence directly below what you quoted?

Where I said implementing it immediately would be ridiculous? (and therefore, why the treasury thought this would be the case, heaven only knows).

That will be because they were trying to paint the very worst case scenario....to scare folk.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Och away...

The nonsense you lot spout to rationalise your temporary reprieve from the dire consequences of your actions is little short of delusional sometimes.

The Treasury study he references assumed that, as announced by Cameron before the referendum, article 50 would be implemented immediately.

It also was a baseline that assumed no cuts to interest rates to stimulate a sugar rush of consumer spending or £100bn+ in additional QE.

But as article 50 hasn't been triggered, and consumer spending got a jolt that would make a toddler on a red bull IV drip look sedate, from slashed interest rates and printy printy - it's a surprise to precisely nobody with a brain that the forecast hasn't (yet) come to pass.

If May triggers article 50 and negotiates to stay in the single market then problem solved - the forecast will be invalid because nothing will have changed - if she triggers Article 50 and takes us out of the single market then the economy will tank quicker than UKIP's last leader lasted in office.:cool:

Och away yourself.....

The OECD said the short-term impact would be a hit to GDP of minus 1.25 per cent and the IMF said that Q3 2016 would see GDP recoil by a cool 0.3 per cent. Ahead of the referendum, David Cameron said “the shock to the economy...would tip the country into recession”. George Osborne said a vote to leave would cause “a year-long recession with at least 500,000 jobs lost”.

Enough with the excuses....the latest GDP figures explode the garbage of Project Fear .

StevieJ

Just bumped into this stupid forecast from the experts at HSBC from last February, they seemed to think that growth would stall next year. This one still has legs.

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Sterling could lose up to 20 percent of its value and UK economic growth could be up to 1.5 percentage points lower next year if Britons vote to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum, HSBC said on Wednesday.
The plunge in sterling could push inflation up by 5 percentage points, and growth could be 1-1.5 percentage points lower, roughly halving the bank's current 2017 growth forecast of 2.3 percent.
The hit to growth could be even more severe if the Bank of England raises interest rates to counter the sharp fall in sterling, they added.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-says-brexit-could-knock-083306292.html

worldtraveller

BobQ wrote: »

I await the the figures being reduced as more data become available. These figures are provisional as always.

Thanks Bob! Almost word perfect.

worldtraveller wrote: »

Yes, that, and/or that the figures are only a preliminary estimate and will probably be revised down later on.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=71517233&postcount=6

...a bit like UK Q2 2016 GDP being revised upwards by 0.1% from 0.6% to 0.7% then.

That was largely due to more up-to-date data being available on how the services sector performed since 'Brexit'. Output in that sector rose by 0.4% between June and July, significantly stronger than the 0.1% that economists had expected.