We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum... Read More »
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
UK Quarter 3 2016 GDP +0.5%
Comments
-
I do agree though that it is the coming years that we need to be wary of,.
In the current GDP figures both construction and manufacturing production actually fell.
Only services remained in growth.
Re the services data lets not forget the BOE stimulus package with lower rates and enhanced market liquidity support which boosted consumer spending.
But the pound devaluation and subsequent inflation will flow through by this time next year.
And lets also not forget that services exports to the EU are the one area not covered by any other free trade deal in history outside the single market....I'm still sure that we'll be ok
If we stay fully within the single market very probably so.
But looking at GDP data which shows the results of business activity planned before the referendum, and consumer spending boosted by the slashing of interest rates since, for a period of time where we're still fully inside the EU and haven't even triggered article 50 yet - does not in any way prove that "we'll be OK" in the event of a hard Brexit.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Heh heh.
Looks like...the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Playing devil's advocate, this GDP is measured in GBP.
So has it gone up 0.5% or down 6.5% (appox, based in USD) or somewhere in between?0 -
Playing devil's advocate, this GDP is measured in GBP.
So has it gone up 0.5% or down 6.5% (appox, based in USD) or somewhere in between?
The GBP has fallen from $1.45 to $1.22 since the referendum.
That's a decrease of 16%.
UK GDP measured in US dollars is around 15% lower today than it was just 3 months ago.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »Hopefully Carney does too!
How can you be so smug whislt we are still EU. Makes you look a little silly.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yep.
Investment decisions are planned well in advance.
The investment projects most businesses were delivering last quarter were signed off at least 12-18 months ago and in many cases a number of years further back.
12-18 months ago would mean those investment projects were signed off just after the 2015 election result, when everybody knew there would be a referendum on EU membership.
IIRC (and I do) Remainers at the time were all saying how we'd see an instant massive reduction in investment because of "the uncertainty over the referendum result".
It appears those goalposts have now been moved........0 -
Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »How can you be so smug whislt we are still EU. Makes you look a little silly.
We were still in the EU when Carney, like Osborne, made his earlier, incorrect predictions about the UK economy post 'Brexit', including the BOE economists who got it so wrong about Q3 growth.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
12-18 months ago would mean those investment projects were signed off just after the 2015 election result, when everybody knew there would be a referendum on EU membership.
IIRC (and I do) Remainers at the time were all saying how we'd see an instant massive reduction in investment because of "the uncertainty over the referendum result".
It appears those goalposts have now been moved........
They probably assumed the then prime minister would be triggering article 50 which still hasn't happened.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
This rampant smugness of the Brexiteers while looking at figures which were all but baked in pre-referendum is likely to come back and bite them hard once the changes to business confidence actually flow through into the data next year and the year after
If it were all pre-banked, why were you suggesting instant recessions?
If it's all pre-banked, howcome so many got it so wrong?!0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »We were still in the EU when Carney, like Osborne, made his earlier, incorrect predictions about the UK economy post 'Brexit', including the BOE economists who got it so wrong about Q3 growth.
What you've identified is politicians act like politicians do and, to some degree, the BoE governor is a political appointment too.
The incorrect conclusion would be to think politicians in support of Brexit are somehow on the side of truth and light.0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 351.3K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.2K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 453.7K Spending & Discounts
- 244.3K Work, Benefits & Business
- 599.4K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.1K Life & Family
- 257.7K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.2K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards