UK Quarter 3 2016 GDP +0.5%

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

What you've identified is politicians act like politicians do and, to some degree, the BoE governor is a political appointment too.

The incorrect conclusion would be to think politicians in support of Brexit are somehow on the side of truth and light.

And vice versa.

Politicians in support of remain are no angels either.

setmefree2

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm more interested to see where business investment goes over the next couple of years.

First post referendum figures will be released end November.

Why? The effect on UK GDP of business investment is about the same as tourism. Consumption is what matters.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep.

Investment decisions are planned well in advance.

The investment projects most businesses were delivering last quarter were signed off at least 12-18 months ago and in many cases a number of years further back.

It will take time for that pipeline to dry up - but unless the govt can provide assurances to business (like the guarantee of compensation for tariffs rumoured to be offered to Nissan last week) then dry up it will.

This rampant smugness of the Brexiteers while looking at figures which were all but baked in pre-referendum is likely to come back and bite them hard once the changes to business confidence actually flow through into the data next year and the year after

I thought I'd quote this post just in case the rampant smugness of Hamish comes back to bite him hard....

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

UK GDP measured in US dollars is around 15% lower today than it was just 3 months ago.

And so is our National Debt which why everyone loves devaluing currency.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

Why? The effect on UK GDP of business investment is about the same as tourism. Consumption is what matters.

Because my view is that the additional uncertainty of Brexit is going to cause investors to cancel or postpone investment. I'm looking to have my bias confirmed (or not) when ONS figures for the post referendum period are released in November.

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

I thought I'd quote this post just in case the rampant smugness of Hamish comes back to bite him hard....

I'll never forget his prediction that the DIY recession Brexit 'will' cause would be worse than the 2008 financial crash and would result in home repossessions many factors higher than in 2008 and the following 4 years - cumulatively.

I think I worked out the number at 1.7m repossessions per year to reach his figures.

Kind of can't take people seriously when they say such outrageous things.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Because my view is that the additional uncertainty of Brexit is going to cause investors to cancel or postpone investment. I'm looking to have my bias confirmed (or not) when ONS figures for the post referendum period are released in November.

Well your post was timely.... news item from just an hour ago as I write...

Remember all the talk of Nissan moving elsewhere? Cancelling their investments? That they will have problems exporting and therefore will move to within the EU?

Japanese carmaker Nissan (7201.T) will build its new Qashqai model in Britain despite the vote to quit the EU, giving Prime Minister Theresa May her most important corporate endorsement since the Brexit referendum in June.

The decision to build the new model at Britain's largest car plant, rather than elsewhere in Europe, was won with what a source described as a package of support pledged by May's government to counter any damage from leaving the EU.

"This vote of confidence shows Britain is open for business and that we remain an outward-looking, world-leading nation," May said in a statement.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan-idUKKCN12R13C

Hoochypooch

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep.

Investment decisions are planned well in advance.

The investment projects most businesses were delivering last quarter were signed off at least 12-18 months ago and in many cases a number of years further back.

It will take time for that pipeline to dry up - but unless the govt can provide assurances to business (like the guarantee of compensation for tariffs rumoured to be offered to Nissan last week) then dry up it will.

This rampant smugness of the Brexiteers while looking at figures which were all but baked in pre-referendum is likely to come back and bite them hard once the changes to business confidence actually flow through into the data next year and the year after

The issue of tariffs is somewhat a mute one, if the EU puts tariffs on our goods we will naturally put tariffs on theirs so the next effect is zero.


Given we buy more of their good they don't have much of an incentive to put tariffs on our goods.

Plus the money raised by tariffs on imports could be used to pay the tariffs on exports. Meaning no overall tariff on imports or exports.

The money raised from import tariffs could be used to cut taxes so people would have more money to pay the tariffs on EU imports.

So effectively the goods would cost the same.

Tromking

wotsthat wrote: »

. I'm looking to have my bias confirmed (or not) when ONS figures for the post referendum period are released in November.

Anyone notice with the average 'remainiac' that its always the next set of figures rather than the current ones that are important?

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well your post was timely.... news item from just an hour ago as I write...

Remember all the talk of Nissan moving elsewhere? Cancelling their investments? That they will have problems exporting and therefore will move to within the EU?

When you've invested millions in a factory you don't just up sticks because you don't like the result of the referendum. You still have to sweat the assets because the cost is already sunk. What you probably don't do is spend millions building another factory just yet.

You did note further down the article that the UK government may have promised to underwrite any investment downside due to Brexit?

The good people of Sunderland will be breathing a sigh of relief to hear the UK taxpayer is providing Brexit insurance to secure their jobs.