Homes in the UK still very cheap/affordable

GreatApe

Must be the tenth time I've tried to explain it to him. As you say I'll give up as I don't think I can explain it any better that that

chucknorris

Windofchange wrote: »

As per my post, roughly 1 in 5 people today don't have children (down from 1 in 9 in the 1940's), so 20%. I have then presented the average wage for these people in my borough. I don't know where you have got the idea I am talking about pensioners and children from? It's quite ironic that you are trying to call me ignorant when you can't read a post correctly!

1 in 5 is more than 1 in 9! So it can't be 'down' from 1 in 9! I wouldn't normally have mentioned it, but your post is supposed to be about someone else not being able to read your posts correctly, and you even use the word 'ironic' too.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

GreatApe wrote: »

The average median wages you quoted include children and kidadults and pensioners and part time workers.

You need to look at everyone in London, line them all up from lowest earner to highest. You then tell the part time workers to leave the line. You tell the children and kidaults to leave the line. You tell the pensioners to leave the line.
What remains you look right in the middle and say sir how much do you earn and that is your median non kids non pensioners non kidadults median full time wage. A figure a good deal higher than the first line with children part time workers and the retired.

And then of that group you exclude the bottom earning 30% (who have rarely if ever been typical homeowners - homeownership peaked at around 70%) and the remainder are your pool of potential buyers.

That's why the average Loan to Income of actual FTB's was less than 3.5 times in 2007 and remains not far off that today.

Windofchange

chucknorris wrote: »

1 in 5 is more than 1 in 9! So it can't be 'down' from 1 in 9! I wouldn't normally have mentioned it, but your post is supposed to be about someone else not being able to read your posts correctly, and you even use the word 'ironic' too.

Yes it can as in more people are childless today, therefore the number of parents is down on when it was 1 in 9 people who were childless. Pick at the semantics if you want.

Windofchange

Keep stripping out the numbers until it fits with your argument. Hey, take out all the pensioners, part time workers, people who have one or more children, people who are single. I only want those who are a couple - yup, look, see, they can afford a flat. Told you so... You should be a politician.

This is just descending into nonsense again. I reckon even if a price collapse came and smacked you round the face you'd still argue there is nothing to see here. The smart / rich are already fleeing the city. -13.5% in Chelsea anyone? It's all just ticking along great though hey.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/knight-frank-stats-on-fall-in-prime-london-house-prices-in-year-to-december-2016-2016-12

economic

Windofchange wrote: »

Keep stripping out the numbers until it fits with your argument. Hey, take out all the pensioners, part time workers, people who have one or more children, people who are single. I only want those who are a couple - yup, look, see, they can afford a flat. Told you so... You should be a politician.

This is just descending into nonsense again. I reckon even if a price collapse came and smacked you round the face you'd still argue there is nothing to see here. The smart / rich are already fleeing the city. -13.5% in Chelsea anyone? It's all just ticking along great though hey.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/knight-frank-stats-on-fall-in-prime-london-house-prices-in-year-to-december-2016-2016-12

i dont think most of us care what happens to prices. at least i dont. i own my own place and thats all. couldnt care less what happens to property prices. if they crash 50%+ there would be more to worry about.

kinger101

cells wrote: »

The problem with this is you've take average salaries (who cares which) but then used terraced homes. Terraced homes up north are typically 2 bed properties. But the average salaries calculation will include many people who have a growing family, for which a two bedroom home wouldn't be suitable. Opposite sex teenagers don't share.

Once again, you're cherry picking your data.

For affordability of terraced properties, you really ought to be finding incomes for would-be first time buyers. Though I appreciate this data might be difficult to find.

On a separate note, it's not uncommon to have FTB in their early 40s these days. They certainly won't be getting a 30 year mortgage. I might also add that banks don't calculate affordability based on today's rate, but you've been told that 1000 times already.

Windofchange

economic wrote: »

i dont think most of us care what happens to prices. at least i dont. i own my own place and thats all. couldnt care less what happens to property prices. if they crash 50%+ there would be more to worry about.

I think most of us probably do. If you own and never want to move then great. If you don't own, want to move or want to sell up at the top and retire to Spain for your Winter years then you most definitely do. I would say you are in the minority as opposed to majority.

Speaking as a joint home owner a 50% crash would do me just nicely. Our flat is now 400k with about 100k left to pay off the mortgage, the terraced house we want to buy is 750k as opposed to 1.5 million. 450k mortgage as opposed to 850k. No brainer. You're ok because you don't care. The pensioners at the top are a bit peeved as they have lost a chunk of change but still cash out their 3 bed house in Brixton for 500 grand and retire to the sun. The young can finally afford to buy. I actually can think of very little to worry about for anyone other than the person who brought the day it all fell apart.

What are you worried about?

GreatApe

kinger101 wrote: »

The problem with this is you've take average salaries (who cares which) but then used terraced homes. Terraced homes up north are typically 2 bed properties. But the average salaries calculation will include many people who have a growing family, for which a two bedroom home wouldn't be suitable. Opposite sex teenagers don't share.

Interesting point, however having just checked rightmove for leeds + 40 miles for terraces listed in the last two weeks as a guide to the north it shows

48 x 1-bed terraces for sale
1,589 x 2-bed terraces
1,443 x 3-bed terraces
361 x 4-bed terraces
56 x 5 bed terraces
15 x >6 bed

The median terrace is thus a 3 bedroom terrace so your idea while it was interesting has proved to be wrong. The average price is for a 3 bed terrace not a 2

Edit to add. The data shows the north as not just affordable but cheap so the median full time working couple do not need to buy the average terrace they actually have the income to buy the better than average terrace

On a separate note, it's not uncommon to have FTB in their early 40s these days. They certainly won't be getting a 30 year mortgage. I might also add that banks don't calculate affordability based on today's rate, but you've been told that 1000 times already.

in which region do you think the banks would say no to the mortgage, hint its only likely in the more expensive half of the London boroughs.

Either way the problem is then not affordability but mortgage regulations

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

The median terrace is thus a 3 bedroom terrace so your idea while it was interesting has proved to be wrong. The average price is for a 3 bed terrace not a 2

3.5 bed actually...