Homes in the UK still very cheap/affordable

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

Yup. Just making a point re: stats can show what you want them to show.

Now, let's take out all the pensioners, people with children, single people, people called Dave and those who own whippets and only count those who are a couple aged 18 - 65.

Last orders!

No stats can't show you anything you want, bad interpretation of the data maybe can. However I'm fairly skilled at both mathematics and linking widespread datasets to get more meaningful analysis.

You can now ignore it all and try to make light of it and return to your conformation bias or you can stand up and say you've learnt something and you will think it though

London is affordable. I've been saying it for a decade while people like you use bad ideas bad data and bad analysis to convince yourselves its a bubble. Even if you were correct and we saw an epic 50% crash we would only be back to 2012 levels in London. In 2012 I was having similar conversations with other bags of wind who were sure of a 50% crash from 2012 prices. Like your good self they looked at ONS data without understanding it. Like yourself they couldn't link separate pieces of data together, like the size and scale of inheritance and how they impact the housing market.

Anyway good luck with everything

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

Either way I think we all agree that there is no housing crisis in Scotland Wales Northern Ireland North-East North-West Yorkshire&Number W-Midlands E-Midlands. Prices there are not inky affordable but cheap

The south West, East-England and the south East are affordable.

London is definitely more expensive but even London is affordable for a couple on the medium full time wage excluding kids and the retired.

If they could only get the mortgage.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

If they could only get the mortgage.

It's only in London and then really the more expensive areas of London where the median full time couple might struggle to get a Mortgage (so it doesn't apply to about 90%-95% of the country)

This however means it is a mortgage regulations problem not an affordability problem

To address this either multiples and affordability ratios need to be increased I would suggest towards 6x or self cert should return.

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

It's only in London and then really the more expensive areas of London where the median full time couple might struggle to get a Mortgage (so it doesn't apply to about 90%-95% of the country)

This however means it is a mortgage regulations problem not an affordability problem

To address this either multiples and affordability ratios need to be increased I would suggest towards 6x or self cert should return.

I don't think it's solely confind to London parts of the south east are also very expensive but I agree large parts of the country are affordable.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

It's only in London and then really the more expensive areas of London where the median full time couple might struggle to get a Mortgage (so it doesn't apply to about 90%-95% of the country)

This however means it is a mortgage regulations problem not an affordability problem

To address this either multiples and affordability ratios need to be increased I would suggest towards 6x or self cert should return.

If only they would get rid of those pesky mortgage regulations and allow the common man to borrow millions then we'd all be saved. That worked out really well in 2007 remember.

GreatApe

The next point would be that being affordable does not mean prices are going to go up or down it just means they are affordable.

The local economy the local population changes and the local supply of new properties will likely determine the direction of prices.

If Londons economy booms and the population continues to grow at 100,000 a year then prices could go up 50% and still stay affordable. If the brexit sees population growth flat line and the large taxes now on London property saps capital from the capital then prices could be flat for a decade.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

If only they would get rid of those pesky mortgage regulations and allow the common man to borrow millions then we'd all be saved. That worked out really well in 2007 remember.

Yes it worked well

We had a stronger economy and we had higher ownership. The over reaction and over regulations has caused the country real harm.

Even the crappy mortgages from the worst UK bank turned out to be profitable so they were priced correctly.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

The next point would be that being affordable does not mean prices are going to go up or down it just means they are affordable.

The local economy the local population changes and the local supply of new properties will likely determine the direction of prices.

If Londons economy booms and the population continues to grow at 100,000 a year then prices could go up 50% and still stay affordable. If the brexit sees population growth flat line and the large taxes now on London property saps capital from the capital then prices could be flat for a decade.

good point. i am contemplating investing my first btl (in london) however im not so sure. yields are not attractive and with capital growth now more uncertain then it has been for a whilst perhaps the prudent thing to do is to wait for now and monitor closely what happens?

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

good point. i am contemplating investing my first btl (in london) however im not so sure. yields are not attractive and with capital growth now more uncertain then it has been for a whilst perhaps the prudent thing to do is to wait for now and monitor closely what happens?

I though you had a BTL and sold your London BTL? Selling and buying back is quite expensive.

before brexit and additional property taxes I was expecting a 30% uplift in London by 2020. I think its more likely to be flat now.

If you are looking to make more money I would have imagined returning to a well paid job would be the easy risk free answer maybe putting a lot of it in a pension for the rebates. Iirc you didn't quite like your job the way to improve that is to make friends with interesting people or just with people you like spending time with so the job doesn't make up the biggest part of your life.

Personally I find myself very unproductive when not working. I seem to get as much done working a fill time job as when I'm not.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

I though you had a BTL and sold your London BTL? Selling and buying back is quite expensive.

before brexit and additional property taxes I was expecting a 30% uplift in London by 2020. I think its more likely to be flat now.

If you are looking to make more money I would have imagined returning to a well paid job would be the easy risk free answer maybe putting a lot of it in a pension for the rebates. Iirc you didn't quite like your job the way to improve that is to make friends with interesting people or just with people you like spending time with so the job doesn't make up the biggest part of your life.

Personally I find myself very unproductive when not working. I seem to get as much done working a fill time job as when I'm not.

i never owned a btl. i bought my first place in 2013. didnt like area and sold in early 2016 (after waiting 9 months for an offer!) and bought in highgate. both times a 2 bed flat.

agree i need to get back into working. part time or full time. ive een busy with a few things including doing up my kitchen. but soon i will have to find a job.