The Trade Implications of Brexit....

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

Brussels arranging our global trade deals and much of our law is not expedient, and what is needed for todays fast changing global stage is a nimble, locally lead autonomous economy, not a great lumbering club of 28 that spend inordinate amounts of time in disagreement, hence why only one ok trade deal delivered in the last 6 years, S Korea

So, you'll be happy with a brexit deal where we are outside the EU, can make our own trade agreements but still have access to the single market and freedom of movement?

Rinoa

mwpt wrote: »

The EU hasn't done anything like it. The UK "suffers" because it is a rich society in a globalising economy where other third world or low cost, low wage nations can make things cheaper than us.

Brexit is not going to change that unless we also become a low wage economy.

You guys really cannot see the reality because your hatred for the EU blinds you.

That's simply untrue. The world's 'rich' countries buy cars made in other 'rich' countries. But not so much from us since we joined the EU.

Moby

Conrad wrote: »

This comes back to what I said to you many moons ago; You start out with the assumption we are the begging dog, and the EU our master to hand us down scraps and we will be happy.


This is a profound misreading and thus your whole outlook is built on a shakey foundation.


I know you will argue the old 'but the EU is a market of 500m citizens and we will have to jump as high as they say', but that's another misnomer.


We are far better off out, we were pretty reluctant members anyway, and never fully on-board. It's an old and lumbering mess now.


My fundamental reason for supporting Brexit is because I feel we will be better off both economically and in terms of how we feel about ourselves as a society in charge of our own destiny and autonomy.


Having an orderly immigration system is another crucial benefit, especially for those of us facing great congestion and the hum of omnipresent Humanity in our lives. There's more to life than relentless Human expansion.

Empty waffle.........Autonomy is well over rated.....fact is we don't have it in a globalised world. We are in Europe whether we like it or not and brexit just means we will have less control over future decision making.

Conrad

Kantar TNS has today published a poll showing that 53 per cent of Scots are against independence, which confirms the YouGov poll taken at the end of August showing 54 per cent of Scots against.


So this is pretty much where things were before the Brexit vote


Project fear item number 14, 'The break-up of the UK if we vote Brexit', rebuffed!

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

So, you'll be happy with a brexit deal where we are outside the EU, can make our own trade agreements but still have access to the single market and freedom of movement?

My expectation is we will agree on an upper limit and various status requirements for those wanting to come to the UK, but as a profitable important market for Germany, France and others that certainly cannot risk hampering their trade and employment (with knock-on effects for their teetering Banks), of course we will obtain a fair and workable tariff free access, all will be well, obviously. The Brits don't expect no immigration.


And that's without mentioning our bargaining aces such as access to our rich fishing waters.


Doom n gloom is simply a misallocation of brain energy with regards Brexit, we are smart, the EU does not want trade wars, uncertainty, bitterness and decline, all will be well.

Conrad

As a nimble responsive Tiger economy we could easily make life very difficult indeed for the precarious EU by slashing our corporation tax rate..........


Gloomers will ignore this FACT of course

Conrad

This interesting letter appeared in The Telegraph;
SWITZERLAND WAS BULLIED BY THE ESTABLISHMENT;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opi…


SIR – In 1992, a slight majority of Swiss voters refused to join the European Economic Area (50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent).
According to the pundits – and most national newspapers – the country was going to break up. (It was indeed divided between a French-speaking Europhile minority and a German speaking anti-European majority.) The economy was going to crash and the Swiss franc was to be worth less than the Zimbabwean dollar.
Calls for a second vote came, and companies warned they were ready to leave the country. Local authorities talked of individual cantons joining the EU. The government was warning of a massive haemorrhage of talent.

None of this happened. Instead, after a slight recession, the economy started to grow again. Nowadays, even if the country’s relationship with the EU is far from settled, almost no one seriously envisages joining the EU or the all-but-defunct EEA. As Britain goes through similar times, it is worth remembering this.
Nicholas Antenen

Geneva, Switzerland

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

As a nimble responsive Tiger economy we could easily make life very difficult indeed for the precarious EU by slashing our corporation tax rate..........


Gloomers will ignore this FACT of course

Doesn't becoming a tiger economy kind of rely on us having a poor economy and standard of living to boost up first? I mean, we'd need to be a much cheaper option than Europe for that to happen.

I hope that we become a Tiger economy in a bounce back, but I'd rather we just stayed strong.

cells

we are all arguing about maybe 4-8% of GDP so no one expects (or at least no one should expect) the UK to fall off a cliff and become a 2nd world country. The economy will readjust and most people seem to think downwards v what it would otherwise have been

I think this too, I expect a maybe 3% fall in GDP v what it would be by the 2020s (maybe more so if net migration falls big time). However this fall in output wont be even, for instance I still expect tourism to be a big growth area over the next 20 years. So if some outperform this -3% others will do even worse.

Mortgagefreeman

Herzlos wrote: »

I hope that we become a Tiger economy in a bounce back, but I'd rather we just stayed strong.

We'll be even stronger. For starters we didn't even need that Emergency budget George Osbourne told us we'd have to have. to use the old Labour mantra, things can only get better.:beer: