50% house price falls

Generali

adr0ck wrote: »

http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx

That was my source too!

Mon, 08 Oct 1990...13.88
Fri, 06 Oct 1989.....14.88
Fri, 08 Sep 1989.....13.75

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

you've still not answered my question

answer it!!!!!!

Who do you think you are!?? I think my post was a fitting response to the question actually.

wolvoman

dannyboycey wrote: »

This is absolute BS. Are people really going to be that bothered about a few hundred quid when selling a house for a couple of hundred grand!?

A few days worth of HPI would cover the cost in many cases (or should I say it did before the peak).

Rightmove, and estate agents are going to deny that a crash is underway until they simply can't get away with it any more. Why? Because their business depends on it!

Did you actually read that leaked Rightmove report or do you prefer to just make up whatever argument suits you? Nowhere does it state that the actual cost of a HIP is affecting house asking prices, it is to do with the drop in the number of 4+ bed homes from the survey.

For example:
Month 1:

5 x 4 bed houses for sale at £500K each
5 x 3 bed houses @ £400K each
5 x 2 bed houses @ £300K each
5 x 2 bed flats @ £250K each
5 x 1 bed flats @ £200K each

25 properties for sale total value: £8.25m. Average of £330K


Month 2:
(assuming Rightmove are correct with a 41% drop in the number of 4+bed places for sale)
3 x 4 bed houses for sale at £500K each
5 x 3 bed houses @ £400K each
5 x 2 bed houses @ £300K each
5 x 2 bed flats @ £250K each
5 x 1 bed flats @ £200K each

23 properties for sale total value: £7.25m. Average of £315K

So a 4.5% drop in prices........ or is it?!!!

pollyanna24

Just out of interest, cos I don't know about these things, but I thought interest rates were set once a month, so how can interest have been an certain amount for one day? Was it different back then?

Generali

pollyanna24 wrote: »

Just out of interest, cos I don't know about these things, but I thought interest rates were set once a month, so how can interest have been an certain amount for one day? Was it different back then?

It was different then.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer would announce what the interest rate was to Parliament and it was up to the Bank of England to make the necessary changes to it's 'repo rate' whereas today the Bank of England decides what the interest rate should be in accordance with its goals of keeping inflation low and the economy stable.

The Bank of England can change interest rates outside of it's normal monthly meeting structure. The MPC can call an emergency meeting if they feel it is required. They just hasn't felt the need to so far.

adr0ck

dannyboycey wrote: »

Who do you think you are!??

some kind of superstar!!!!

adr0ck

dannyboy

your post didn't answer my question at all

i asked you why you stated that my post stating that more people have put there homes on the market than normally would at this momment in time because of HIPs coming in is BS

you also said that it is BS that asking prices will come down because of this

you still havnt answered this

i fail to see how supply and demand is BS as you state it is

obsessed_saver

The vicious cycle has started. The people are spooked. The crash will now happen whether the fundamentals or whatever economists like to say are there or not. It's all psychology.

Northern Rock just tipped the scale.

Paragon Group - BTL mortgage lender - tanked 26.75% now - even though they have come out to say that everything is fine and they are well funded until end of the year and even into next year.

Barratt - dropped 10.4%
Persimmon - down 7.84%
Bovis Homes - down 8.51%
Savills - down 6.09%

Just look at the number of posts today along the lines of "I've just put in an offer, but is now a good time to buy?". Imagine all the potential buyers in the country now asking this question, and I think a significant proportion of them might decide to wait and see and withdraw their offers. Even 30% pull out will be drastic. What do you think will happen?

Doc_N

obsessed_saver wrote: »

The vicious cycle has started. The people are spooked. The crash will now happen whether the fundamentals or whatever economists like to say are there or not. It's all psychology.

Northern Rock just tipped the scale.

Couldn't agree more - it's like any bubble, from the relatively recent dot.com bubble right back to the 'tulip mania' of 1636. Everyone thinks prices of a particular thing (property here) will keep on rising and can't ever fall back.

Then the inevitable happens, as it is now going to with property (look at the US, Spain and elsewhere) , and everyone says 'Gosh - it was obvious really. All the signs were there and we just didn't notice them.'

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

dannyboy

your post didn't answer my question at all

i asked you why you stated that my post stating that more people have put there homes on the market than normally would at this momment in time because of HIPs coming in is BS

you also said that it is BS that asking prices will come down because of this

you still havnt answered this

i fail to see how supply and demand is BS as you state it is

I didn't say your post was BS and it was not some kind of personal attack on you. I am referring to the fact that Rightmove are suggesting that HIPS have so drastically affected asking prices, which in my opinion is absolute rubbish. Sure, there may be a tiny minority of people rushing to put their 300k houses on the market to save them £400, but enough to send house prices down nationwide? Come on!

'HIPS' and 'Credit Crunch' seem to be the new buzz words for catalysts to what is happening. How about using plain English, like 'irresponsible lending', and 'greed'. This has been coming for a long time and is well overdue. Northern Rock have tipped the scales of sentiment and there is only one way for this to go now.