50% house price falls

Doc_N

The fallout from Northern Rock and the credit squeeze borrowers are facing will kill the market stone dead - look forward to big falls in house prices across the UK.

WTF?_2

golddustmedia wrote: »

They are.

If nothing else, the UK is an island, land (property) is one commodity that's guaranteed in limited supply!

I disagree with much of your post but the 'UK is an island' line has to be one of the biggest bits of misdirection ever.

Do you imagine that countries like France or Germany have unlimited area for building houses within their land and sea boundaries? How about landlocked Switzerland?

There's nothing special about being on a large island that means house price inflation is more pronounced in the UK.

nelly_2

someone dig out that new graph off hpc on prices to wage ratio

it shows when the lax lending started and prices shot up

however now all the chav lending is stoping it'll be a different story totally

beingjdc

golddustmedia wrote: »

Using my example in property above:
£100 pw is approx the interest payment on a £90k property.
After 9 years is worth £180k
After 18 years is worth £360k
After 27 years is worth £720k
After 36 years is worth £1.4M

So after 40 years would be heading around £2M, DOUBLE what the bank would give you!

The problem you've got there is that the trend rate of growth of the economy is 3%, so it only increases in size by a bit less than 30% over eight or nine years. Do you really believe that in a century houses will cost 100 million pounds each, on average? That's the implication of your maths.

More interestingly, in a mere 370 years, your house would be worth more than the GDP of the entire country for a year. Does that sound likely?

Generali

beingjdc wrote: »

More interestingly, in a mere 370 years, your house would be worth more than the GDP of the entire country for a year. Does that sound likely?

Good line. It's amazing what you can do with simple compound interest calculations.

tomstickland

The crash proponents have been saying if FTBs wait just another year then houses will be affordable since 2001! It may be time for the less well off to realise that they just won't be able to afford their own home unless they move somewhere cheap eg Burnley. Also the current young generation are used to having exactly what they want so when they complain about not being able to afford a house they mean they can't afford a large house somewhere nice and can only afford something smaller and somewhere grotty. Well welcome to the real world where most of us can't have everything we want. I want a nice detached house in Cheshire but I can't afford it. I either have to get off my bum and increase my earnings until I can or accept I'll have to make do with what I have.

Blimey, it's the mad man down the pub who has an extended chain of logic for every reason why house prices cannot fall.

dolce_vita

golddustmedia wrote: »

I said I paid £168k for my home 2 years ago, I have every faith that in another 7 years it will be worth £336k, I've even more faith that in 16 years it will be worth £672k.

then you are obviously a fvcking idiot and not worth getting into a debate with.

Errata

In 1968 a financial whizzkid writing in a newpaper suggested that the kind of house I owned would be worth £250k in a few decades. I thought that was a hilarious suggestion. My house - yes, that one I bought in '68 - was sold last year for £265k.

I had a roof over my head during the hike in the '80s and the slump in the '90s, and if tomorrow my house was worth 50p, I would still have a roof over my head. And that's the only thing that counts.

JohnInDebt

dolce_vita wrote: »

then you are obviously a fvcking idiot and not worth getting into a debate with.

Either that or he/she is under 30 and was too young to remember the last crash.

dolce_vita

Errata wrote: »

In 1968 a financial whizzkid writing in a newpaper suggested that the kind of house I owned would be worth £250k in a few decades. I thought that was a hilarious suggestion. My house - yes, that one I bought in '68 - was sold last year for £265k.

I had a roof over my head during the hike in the '80s and the slump in the '90s, and if tomorrow my house was worth 50p, I would still have a roof over my head. And that's the only thing that counts.

How much did you pay for it?