50% house price falls

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

during the last crash yes

but historically interest rates have been over 15% for a long time

You also have to take into account current debt levels (which are much higher this time).

In simplistic terms, consider 100k debt at 10% versus 200k debt at 5%.

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

there is a glut of properties on the market at the moment due to HIP's

therefore asking prices will have to fall (as seen by rightmove)

just speak to an estate agent if you don't believe me

This is absolute BS. Are people really going to be that bothered about a few hundred quid when selling a house for a couple of hundred grand!?

A few days worth of HPI would cover the cost in many cases (or should I say it did before the peak).

Rightmove, and estate agents are going to deny that a crash is underway until they simply can't get away with it any more. Why? Because their business depends on it!

WTF?_2

dannyboycey wrote: »

Completely agree. In fact many estate agents are even offering free HIP so I think they have very little to do with it.

Yep - the notion that the expense of producing a 400 quid report is a barrier to selling a property which is most likely going on the market at >300k is just laughable.

Given all the 'hidden' fees in selling a house and moving to a new one .. such as paying the estate agent up to 1.5% of it's value, solicitor's fees etc .. the cost of producing a HIP is nothing.

The real issue with 'vested interests' is that because it's an up-front fee it will discourage people from speculatively putting their property on the market. And the market in recent times has been built largely around the notion of speculation and greed.

Generali

sm9ai wrote: »

I wasn't around at the 15% interest rates times so can I ask a few questions.

How long was it at 15% for? years/months/days?

Was the Mortgage rate the same or higher as now it seems that the interest rate of 5.75% bares little resemblance to the mortgage rates of 7-8% or am I missing something.

Also just noted abbey are offering 8.1% savings - how do they make money if mortgages are charged at a lower rate?

The official bank lending rate was at 14.88% from 6th October 1989 until 5th October 1990. It was raised from 13% to about 15% again for 1 day (if memory serves) the day that the the quid was booted out of the ERM.

adr0ck

dannyboycey wrote: »

This is absolute BS.

dannyboy

how is it BS as you put it?

i'm simply saying there are more properties on the market as people put them on to beat the HIP deadline

please explain how this is BS

adr0ck

Generali wrote: »

The official bank lending rate was at 14.88% from 6th October 1989 until 5th October 1990. It was raised from 13% to about 15% again for 1 day (if memory serves) the day that the the quid was booted out of the ERM.

http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

please explain how this is BS

HIPS are being used as a red herring for a downturn in the market. The ratio of HIP cost to property value (especially on larger properties) makes their argument farcical.

I believe we will see lenders and Estate agents (and Gordon Brown!) come up with a plethora of scapegoats on whom to blame property falls over the coming months.

dannyboycey

adr0ck wrote: »

http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx

These figures are all but meaningless unless you correlate them with debt levels.

adr0ck

dannyboycey wrote: »

HIPS are being used as a red herring for a downturn in the market. The ratio of HIP cost to property value (especially on larger properties) makes their argument farcical.

I believe we will see lenders and Estate agents (and Gordon Brown!) come up with a plethora of scapegoats on whom to blame property falls over the coming months.

you've still not answered my question

answer it!!!!!!

adr0ck

dannyboycey wrote: »

These figures are all but meaningless unless you correlate them with debt levels.

i was simply giving a link to what interest rates have been historically

how is that meaningless?