Selling everything when the market reaches a new all time high

talexuser

All this is purely personal opinion and is probably all wrong according to the experts here (which I am not) but there you are. I've never had a tracker, because it is always slightly less than average performance, so why not try and find a little bit of outperformance? (Nothing wrong with trackers to buy and forget - just not my thing) Look through all the recommendations, draw up shortlists for investigation and try and find the "alpha" managers and follow their careers. Don't sell and buy all the time, hold for the long term unless underperfomance seems entrenched or unproven managers take over to keep an eye on. Dividends are better than capital growth because something comes in to compound even in downturns, and you have just as much chance of selecting a disappointment. I'm not a great risk taker at all, but if you stick at it for long enough a 20 or 30% crash doesn't matter anymore because it's all paper money until you need it, and within a few years you see growth again. So don't pay any attention to my way of doing the wrong thing!

King_Weasel

I claim no expertise but admit to modest profits by devoting a very small proportion of my investment capital to short-term trading. For instance in the 3 months from mid-May I have bought and sold basically the same shares 7 times, making a small profit each time, and am now waiting for the next dip in price to buy again (which may never happen, of course). If I had been bolder I would have made much more but my time machine isn't that reliable. I also sold one of my shares completely, again at a profit, but only to see its price rise even more steeply since.

But I guess 90% of my investments stay put through thick and thin.

System

Are there professionally managed timing funds? Making a long term gain out of lots of timings?
As then we stand better odds

Or it may just highlight that even professionals can't do it so what hope has an amateur?

System

Since managed funds under perform indexes I'm tempted to say that nobody can really time the market, at all

talexuser

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

Since managed funds under perform indexes I'm tempted to say that nobody can really time the market, at all

I must have missed all those index trackers that come out top of every performance table all of the time

System

Well if any active managers beat the index then index won't be "on top of the tables", but they will certainly outperform the vast majority of "professionals", isn't that a scary thought?

Its usually pure fluke if someone pulls it off, and very few active managers are consistent

Thrugelmir

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

Its usually pure fluke if someone pulls it off, and very few active managers are consistent

With hindsight there'll always be winners and losers.

talexuser

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

Well if any active managers beat the index then index won't be "on top of the tables", but they will certainly outperform the vast majority of "professionals", isn't that a scary thought?

Its usually pure fluke if someone pulls it off, and very few active managers are consistent

That I can agree with

Malthusian

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

Are there professionally managed timing funds? Making a long term gain out of lots of timings?

Plenty of hedge funds that do this - or attempt to. Generally only open to sophisticated and high-net worth (i.e. very very rich) investors, because when you lose them lots of money they tend to suck it up because they don't want to look stupid in front of their rich friends, whereas the "retail investor" Mrs Migginses will drag your name through the Daily Mail if you lose their money.

System

A hedge fund should include
- topiary specialists
- sheer manufacturers
- hedge trimming nanufacturers
- gardeners
Etc