Selling everything when the market reaches a new all time high

zolablue25

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Prices are high mainly because of the fall in the value of the pound. I can't see anything that will make the pound recover anytime soon. Can you?

Maybe. How about a Euro banking crisis coming to a head or maybe The Donald getting elected in US?

Either could happen and either could have an effect on currencies. Of course, neither may happen and even if they do, they may not effect the currencies. I still feel the potential is there.

Mind you, it also depends on what you mean by "soon"

Ray_Singh-Blue

Looking at this chart for example, it is possible that following the strategy I mentioned would have resulted in selling in 1994 at about 3000, sitting the market out for maybe 5 years, and buying back in in 1999 at about 5500. Not great.

That's a one off as far as I can see, but a one-off that could have basically halved portfolio performance over the long run.

I think you have talked me out of it for now - thanks

Malthusian

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Prices are high mainly because of the fall in the value of the pound. I can't see anything that will make the pound recover anytime soon. Can you?

Could you see anything that could make markets recover in early 2009 when the global economy was collapsing under the weight of its debt, everywhere was in recession and the Baltic Dry Index was indicating a total halt to worldwide trade?

Ray_Singh-Blue wrote:

That's a one off as far as I can see, but a one-off that could have basically halved portfolio performance over the long run.

The stockmarket is a never-ending sequence of recurring one-offs.

AnotherJoe

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Prices are high mainly because of the fall in the value of the pound. I can't see anything that will make the pound recover anytime soon. Can you?

Thats not correct. UK shares are. US shares are not at an all time high because of Brexit ! Why focus on UK shares? The UK is what, 8% of the world economy?

And even regards UK shares who saw Brexit and then the almost immediate rise in the value of most UK shares, who saw oil fall to $40 a barrel, who saw interest rates at nearly 0% for ten years? Not you or you'd be fabulously rich. Or me

The point being there will be other similar 'black swan' events that will catch people out so believing you are so clever you can call a top or a bottom is madness.

Unless you think you can, in which case either you are having your butler type your messages from your own private tropical island that you live in or you are held somewhere that sharp implements arent allowed.

Glen_Clark

Malthusian wrote: »

Could you see anything that could make markets recover in early 2009 when the global economy was collapsing under the weight of its debt, everywhere was in recession and the Baltic Dry Index was indicating a total halt to worldwide trade?

I was talking about a recovery in the pound, not stock markets.
But since you mention it stock markets rose on money printing.
It would take an unwinding of money printing to have similar effect on the pound, and whats the chance of that?

Glen_Clark

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Why focus on UK shares?

I focus on shares priced in £pounds which have fallen in value.

System

Using the words of RBS 'sell everything' prior to October's predicted bear market.

I will be selling tomorrow COP.

AnotherJoe

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I was talking about a recovery in the pound, not stock markets.

My bad but the same comments on Black Swans applies

System

I've sold some of my investments today prior to the so called turn........

talexuser

I've been through the Asian crisis and not sold, the Russian crisis and not sold, the dot-com bubble and not sold, the aftermath of 9/11 and not sold, the Chinese crisis and not sold, the great Credit Crunch and not sold, the Euro crisis and not sold, the second Chinese crisis and not sold, and brexit and not sold. Couldn't buy much either because usually filled my ISA on April 6th so no spare cash without selling. I must have done something wrong