Selling everything when the market reaches a new all time high

EdGasket

chucknorris wrote: »

How bravely typed, now why don't you PM me, so that we can arrange to meet up, so you can say that to my face.

EDIT: I'm PMing you now just in case you somehow overlook this post.

Update: can you believe it? After an exchange of PM's he is now taking a step back after calling me a c*nt, and saying it was only a joke, what a pathetic wimp this guy is.

And what a crazy you are if you think anyone would drive halfway across the country to meet some random guy from the internet who can't take a joke so he can throw a few punches.

I said it was a joke; other people see it as a joke, it wasn't aimed at you but it is you that makes fun of manslaughter in the same way. Lets drop it and get back to the stockmarket.

bigadaj

chucknorris wrote: »

It was EdGasket, he abused Scun*horpe

Well if you haven't got a photograph....(quantity surveyor joke).

chucknorris

EdGasket wrote: »

Lets drop it and get back to the stockmarket.

You are the one that won't let go! I moved on last night.

bowlhead99

EdGasket wrote: »

bowlhead99 Have you considered Assura (AGR) who lease out health centres and I've always thought more sound than PHP, and U&I (UAI) which is way below asset value (though has a few shopping centres I expect)?

Assura seem pretty sound for the long term. Like PHP - the country does need more good quality primary healthcare facilities and they are in the right place to deliver. Both of them have been in a price range of 20+% over EPRA NAV as everybody loves stable dividends and solid assets in this low yield world.

But although the existing rent roll is underpinned with index linking and government contracts, their ability to grow depends on government support for primary healthcare funding, and the govt already spends lots of money on NHS (which is never considered enough by those receiving it) and has plenty of uncertainty over the coming years' tax receipts under brexit etc. So a solid dividend play but likely to be flattish on the growth side especially with the high premium to NAV. I have PHP for its defensive properties rather than something that would compete with equities or anything racy.

I would be interested why you prefer AGR as something you 'always thought more sound' than PHP. Their last CEO did a good job of improving and growing it to a solid FTSE250 size over his tenure (well rewarded with the massive exec incentive scheme) but he stepped down last March (due to his health problems, not because he didn't like the business) and they still haven't got a permanent replacement - not a great sign. I remember thinking a couple of years back that PHP did have quite an aggressive dividend policy which the earnings had to 'grow into' while AGR were more 'covered' at the time. From memory their debt is longer term than PHP which is a positive, and their gearing was lower than their 50% target at the last count.

To be honest PHP is only a very small part of my pension; I picked it out for my Mum's ISA a few years back (since which time, it has done nicely) and I have a policy of not letting my parents hold something I wouldn't be willing to hold myself even though their needs are different to mine. I will look at it again when the December year end results are out. Also will be interesting to see what they plan to do with the management incentive scheme at AGR as I think the current one expires in 2017 and constituted a pretty high 'performance fee' in terms of potential investor dilution when they put the last one together.

U&I I've not looked at but it is mixed use stuff and there are plenty of 'generalist' property businesses and development regeneration companies, so not a play on healthcare or people getting old.

I've been in and out of Target but they are trading above NAV and have yet to report a year of paying the Living wage or whatever it's called now plus there is more pressure on to improve standards in care homes which comes at a cost.

Target is a bit different to AGR/PHP as although it has health in the name, its care home business is largely focussed on the specific reason people are seeing health as a big theme over the coming decades: People Getting Old. Certainly it has done better than the generalist UK property sector post brexit referendum as people are still getting old no matter what happens to the economy, and despite whatever happens to day to day fashions and disposable incomes, there are always people who will find the money from somewhere to pay for a good quality care home.

The sector obviously has headwinds, including things like living wage as you mention over the next few years and the labour supply more generally - they mentioned in their last quarterly report, 7% of the workforce being European, uncertainty over work permits and continuing immigration. However, "more pressure to improve standards in care homes which comes at a cost" is precisely what creates the opportunity for a specialist investment manager to select and work with operators of well managed facilities out of decent premises.

I have more THRL in my portfolio than PHP.

BrockStoker wrote: »

Always interesting to hear what others are doing. I must admit, BB healthcare investment trust has gone under my radar. That's not a bad short term return for a more defensive asset/fund, but I'd still take the Polar Capital biotech fund over it: Bought Nov 4, up nearly 12.5% by Nov 9, and up ~22% as of yesterday.

Sure, great return, and we always hear about stellar returns from biotech - but biotech is very far from being defensive and its proponents are less vocal when it's tanking

The same invesment management group run the successful BB biotech fund, and this one is about applying some of those stock selection experiences to the wider healthcare sector and NOT just focussing on the sexy high growth volatile bio stuff. It is a bit of a punt due to lack of track record in the exact strategy and focus area (which is why I didn't mind taking a bit off the table early as it moved to a premium), but I think they are looking to capture the sort of themes which will be worth having over the next decades

One thing to think about though: If there are big breakthroughs in treatments/drugs, we might see LESS demand for healthcare property despite the aging demographic. I admit I'm an optimist at heart, but I think it's a distinct possibility looking at the various treatments/technologies that are in the pipelines right now.

There is a growing bulge in the ageing population no matter how you look at it. If people don't die of one thing, something else will get them in the end, but meanwhile the extra 20 years they have on this earth due to not dying prematurely of cancer age 75 means they have another 20 years of ailments to treat. That's more beds needed. And then they can go in a care home for their last three years from age 92 before passing on- rather than not needing a care home for three years from age 72 because they were happy looking after themselves as a relative youngster.

2017 looks set to be a great year for some large caps like Celgene and Ilumina (probably the best/only reason to hold the Axa Framlington biotech fund IMO), especially IF worries over drug pricing dissipate.

Ilumina for example is launching a gene sequencing device that they say will sequence an individual's genome for just $100. But there is so much more going on in the sector, that will feed through over the next few years to be excited about that I'm finding it hard not to be bullish despite the potential headwinds from drug pricing scrutiny.

There's always potential blockbusters just as there are always potential headwinds. I don't currently have a biotech fund but used the biotech growth investment trust (BIOG) for several years. It was somewhere between £2.50 and £3 when I was first on here in 2012 saying I'd bought it for my new SIPP and hoped that its rise of about a pound from the year before was not going to reverse. I sold most of it in 2015 for between £7.50 and £8.50 after the too-good-to-be-true returns. It went below £6 the following year and would have then had some nice currency gains to bring it back up again, and I see it's now back in low to mid 7s.

Everyone thought Clinton would get in and be tough on pricing, then everyone was elated that Trump got in because he allegedly thinks anything that restricts business is horrible. That's good for bio and pharma and if you were buying last November you will have been paid handsomely by catching that upwards wave.

But biotech generally is about taking risks to find the one diamond in the rough that can make it through the trials. Which means investing is speculative. When the markets fall, which they do, and people are in 'risk: off' instead of 'risk: on' mode, the price of defensive cash generative firms with inelastic demand for their products always bear up *much* better than the price of biotech firms - who are trying to invent the next big thing but in a lot of cases don't actually have a current big thing to bring in money, and don't have investors to fund their research and trials because they're in risk: off mode.

So, some people would say that if you think US shares are relatively expensive anyway on historic levels (even disregarding GBP weakness) and biotech has had a good run, and then shares generally and biotech specifically all get another boost fuelled most recently by promises made by the incumbent president - but we know promises are not always kept... then sooner or later some of those gains will get given back, when US shares stop being so expensive, which is something that has to happen at some point, especially with rising interest rates and so on. The market does like a good crash every so often and it has been a while since we had one.

Of course, if you get another 200% off a biotech fund in the next couple of years then you can afford to lose 67% of its then value, in a crash.

EdGasket

chucknorris wrote: »

You are the one that won't let go! I moved on last night.

Really? Then can you explain what post 147 is about? Posted today at 12:20

bowlhead99

EdGasket wrote: »

Really? Then can you explain what post 147 is about? Posted today at 12:20

Clearly he just can't take a joke. Would be good if you both dropped it though, rather than both banging on about who should drop it first or who has already dropped it. Personally I'm not too bothered about who put the gas into ed gasket or who inserted my owl. :shocked:

Glen_Clark

chucknorris wrote: »

Hang on a minute, it is completely different to put a joke on my signature which is not aimed at anyone in paricular,

every joke on your signature mentions you in particular

chucknorris wrote: »

Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird
The only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistake
Chuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".

Maybe its just that you take the word c*** more seriously than others?
I've worked in places where words like that are used freely, so they are not taken seriously.
I's surprised you take the word c*** more seriously than manslaughter.
Or is it that you only find your own jokes funny?

chucknorris

EdGasket wrote: »

Really? Then can you explain what post 147 is about? Posted today at 12:20

Do I really have to explain? It is a reply your post directly above it, that you posted at 6 mins earlier.

chucknorris

Glen_Clark wrote: »

every joke on your signature mentions you in particular


Maybe its just that you take the word c*** more seriously than others?
I've worked in places where words like that are used freely, so they are not taken seriously.
I's surprised you take the word c*** more seriously than manslaughter.
Or is it that you only find your own jokes funny?

There aren't much worse insults than calling someone a c*nt.

It does not mention me! I am not the real Chuck Norris as you well know, repeating a well known Chuck Norris joke about him, which is a parody on his martial arts skills, isn't the same as EDGasket saying to me (not the real Chuck Norris) that I am a c*nt.

chucknorris

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Clearly he just can't take a joke. Would be good if you both dropped it though, rather than both banging on about who should drop it first or who has already dropped it. Personally I'm not too bothered about who put the gas into ed gasket or who inserted my owl. :shocked:

I definitely can take a joke, but I don't think someone calling me a !!!! is much of a joke, especially out of the blue, and from someone that I don't know. I'll drop it when people like you stop going on and on about it. I had already decided to let the matter end and let Ed have the last word in post 142 last night at 9.30 pm, but he came back again to rub it in this afternoon.