Selling everything when the market reaches a new all time high

BrockStoker

economic wrote: »

thats a good idea, i will look into biotech/healthcare as well as technology and energy funds focusing on new technology (clean energy, AI etc).

I recently noticed that there are funds specializing in robotics. Got quite excited at first, but after a closer look, the funds have all gone up too much for me to think about investing in them now, and I fear they may never correct enough for me to be completely comfortable about jumping in. I may just bite the bullet and invest if there is a little dip, whilst keeping half of my cash ready in case there's a significant correction, even though every time I've used this strategy in the past I haven't had to wait long after the first buy for there to be a much better opportunity!

One thing I've found is that if I've rushed into a sector, further down the line I usually end up wishing I'd chosen another fund. In the biotech sector I started out with the Axa Framlington fund, but I much prefer The Biotech Growth Trust now (partly because it doesn't hold so much Gillead stock, which I see as a possible headwind in the short term), and Polar Capital Biotechnology which doesn't focus so much on the large/mega caps. More "risky"/volatile, but Polar Capital has almost continuously out performed it's peers. I wish I'd bought more of it.

On the other hand if I hadn't "rushed" I would have missed out on significant gains in many cases. Better to be invested with a less than ideal fund (as long as it's not terrible) than not at all IMHO.

By the way I also hold Worldwide Healthcare Trust as well as The Biotech Growth Trust and Polar Capital Biotechnology. It's probably slight overkill for my 10 fund total portfolio, and there is quite a bit of overlap, but I like the swath of stocks all 3 funds capture, so I can't bring myself to sell any of them.

coastline

There's a lot of bets Short in both UK and USA showing 88% and 84% as of tonight.
Its going the other way until the Shorts give up..

https://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/ftse-100

Those lower indicators especially the RSI are screaming overbought short term..
Anybody trading ETF's should be able to sell and buy back cheaper I would think pretty soon ..

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3AUKX.L&it=li&timeframe=1y&index=&versus=&linetype=line&overlay=&overlay2=&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=slowstoch&indicator2=RSI&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on&Go=Plot

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&movingAverage%5B%5D=50&movingAverage%5B%5D=150&indicator%5B%5D=SlowSTO&draw=

chucknorris

economic wrote: »

do you buy ETFs or trackers? i know the pros and cons, just wondering what you find better and why, asking you as i know you have substantial amounts invested and obviously the experience too.

Both, I am currently mainly invested in (only) Vangaurd's vuke and vhyl (only £13k, so nothing really) etf trackers of the ftse 100 and worldwide (high income). Vuke is definitely not a long term plan for me, it is quite volatile (as you would expect from a diverse lacking ftse 100 tracker). But it is also a etf with low fees, so prefect for playing on the volatility. But mainly I am in for the high yield, I have about £750k in this etf, it pays over 4% PA, which is the main attraction, but if it looks high (like right now), I do like to play slightly and move into cash waiting for a slight dip, to buy back in. I'm not convinced that it is the right strategy, but it does seem to be paying off (so far), and today I sold £160k, I'm hoping for a small dip to buy back in before the next dividend in March.

chucknorris

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Being in the footsy 100 is not really what it sounds like though. It sounds like you are spreading your investments across 100 companies. In reality half if it is in just the top 20 companies which are a very unbalanced set of sectors / industries, and the rest being so small as a % are close to irrelevant, especially the bottom 50.
When you say the footsy is high you are really saying that a handful (well and a footfull) of Pharma and mining companies are toppy. And maybe they are. I do have a few of them just for income so I'm not too bothered by their actual price but I'd never buy them for growth, they are too big to grow much.

I know what being in the ftse 100 is like, I am there because it lacks diversity, so it is therefore quite volatile, which is exactly what I want. I know the risks, when I get nearer my horizon I will move into a much more diversified etf.

AnotherJoe

chucknorris wrote: »

I know what being in the ftse 100 is like, I am there because it lacks diversity, so it is therefore quite volatile, which is exactly what I want. I know the risks, when I get nearer my horizon I will move into a much more diversified etf.

Fair enough, though in that case why not just buy a dozen highly volatile shares ? You could cover more industry sectors and swap in and out if toppy ones into non-toppy ?
(I ask out of interest, not argument )

chucknorris

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Fair enough, though in that case why not just buy a dozen highly volatile shares ? You could cover more industry sectors and swap in and out if toppy ones into non-toppy ?
(I ask out of interest, not argument )

I got my fingers burned years ago with single company shares (thankfully I had no money to lose back then), there is no way that I would buy single company shares, they are far too risky for me. Unless it is a giveaway like Royal Mail which obviously I would buy to sell asap (trouble is you can only invest peanuts).

economic

chucknorris wrote: »

I got my fingers burned years ago with single company shares (thankfully I had no money to lose back then), there is no way that I would buy single company shares, they are far too risky for me. Unless it is a giveaway like Royal Mail which obviously I would buy to sell asap (trouble is you can only invest peanuts).

I had my fingers burnt too in supermarkets and oil. I sold out of most of the supermarkets at a loss but kept Sainsbury's which is still at a loss. The oil companies have more or less recovered with the rising oil price. TBH my other single stocks have done remarkably well. Not sure if it's luck or not. But you never know what's round the corner and the supermarkets did caught me (although easily avoided by cutting the positions lot sooner after the first profit warnings).

Pincher

Volatile is good.

If you can lose money......

YOU CAN MAKE MONEY.

BrockStoker

coastline wrote: »

There's a lot of bets Short in both UK and USA showing 88% and 84% as of tonight.
Its going the other way until the Shorts give up..

https://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/ftse-100

Those lower indicators especially the RSI are screaming overbought short term..
Anybody trading ETF's should be able to sell and buy back cheaper I would think pretty soon ..

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3AUKX.L&it=li&timeframe=1y&index=&versus=&linetype=line&overlay=SMA_10&overlay2=&overlay3=&overlay4=&indicator=slowstoch&indicator2=RSI&indicator3=&indicator4=&chartwidth=500&buylines=on&triggers=on&Go=Plot

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&movingAverage%5B%5D=50&movingAverage%5B%5D=150&indicator%5B%5D=SlowSTO&draw=

It does look like a correction is on the cards. If not now, then when the whole Trump fiasco unravels (almost inevitable now I think), which it seems to be doing already. We could be in for a slow-motion train-wreck.

I was cautiously optimistic just 24 hrs ago, but now it looks like more volatility ahead. At least it means an opportunity to buy, which I could use, but it would be nice to see the markets going up more (now that I'm nearly 90% invested) instead of mostly sideways, which seems to have been the case since I first started to take an interest in my own investments 3 or 4 years ago.

darkidoe

JohnRo wrote: »

It is about the UK currency though, which has been negatively impacted by Brexit. Selling US dollar denominated assets converts them into GBP unless you have USD accounts. The question then, as alluded to by several posters is what the heck do you buy with those liberated GBP and will whatever you do decide to buy provide any better return than having just left them where they were?

One thing to bear in mind is the cliche that when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.

I am curious if there is a currency adjusted picture of the asset prices?? How much of the upside in asset prices is due to the fall in pound and is it relevant to devolve the effect of currency value or is it just a fool's errand?