Is the collapse of the EU now the best bet for the UK

Marktheshark

Two types of members of the EU.

Those servicing the debt
And those making it.

With one net contributor less, they are going to struggle to even meet interest payments, let alone pay any of the debt down.

It will be the banks that pull the plug on the EU, not the brexit, admittedly the loss of the mugs paying the debt down will not help.

Crashy_Time

HornetSaver wrote: »

Let me make this clear, I voted Remain and continue to believe that the deal we will ultimately do under article 50 will be worse than if we had stayed in the EU. I hope I'm wrong, and accept that it's early days, but have *yet* to see anything from any political party or potential future Prime Minister to convince me that I am.

But, given that we have voted to leave and are thus going to leave, I think we will have far more ability to protect our economic interests in Europe if the EU breaks up.

I do not for a second believe that is actually going to happen though. France, Germany and Benelux are far too politically committed to it despite being net contributors. Spain knows that for as long as they are in the EU Catalonia will never become independent. Eastern Europe (despite many people being just as opposed to the principle as the British) gets far too good a deal from it. Greece - despite there being a very strong argument that the Eurozone is directly responsible for its current predicament - is utterly reliant on it. Austria is too neutral to take any sort of position on the matter. And the Scandinavian countries, despite having reservations about their national identities on a scale not unlike the UK, are far more politically inclined towards it, both among politicians and voters.

They may not all believe in the EU for the same reasons, but they all believe in it.

Many voters within those countries don`t "believe in it", so IMO your generalisation is wrong. Many more political "shocks" to come as far as the EZ is concerned IMO.

HornetSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Many voters within those countries don`t "believe in it", so IMO your generalisation is wrong. Many more political "shocks" to come as far as the EZ is concerned IMO.

Many voters in the UK believe in the European Union.

Many voters in the other 27 countries do not believe in it.

Many voters in Wales support Plaid Cymru.

All three of the above are factually accurate statements. All three are currently irrelevant statements in the wider scheme of things.

The fact is that in those countries with the highest level of support for leaving the EU, the only political parties in favour of doing so are far-right (take for example the Front National in France, which Nigel Farage has frequently described as racist). This referendum succeeded because there were those across the political spectrum who were strongly enough in favour of it to force the Government to hold it. I see no signs of that in any other country unless a far right party takes power.

TrickyTree83

HornetSaver wrote: »

Many voters in the UK believe in the European Union.

Many voters in the other 27 countries do not believe in it.

Many voters in Wales support Plaid Cymru.

All three of the above are factually accurate statements. All three are currently irrelevant statements in the wider scheme of things.

The fact is that in those countries with the highest level of support for leaving the EU, the only political parties in favour of doing so are far-right (take for example the Front National in France, which Nigel Farage has frequently described as racist). This referendum succeeded because there were those across the political spectrum who were strongly enough in favour of it to force the Government to hold it. I see no signs of that in any other country unless a far right party takes power.

That might change with the introduction of this:

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/258994,New-EU-superstate-plan%E2%80%99-by-France-Germany-report

They appear to not have learnt the lesson from the Brexit vote.

mrginge

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

That might change with the introduction of this:

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/258994,New-EU-superstate-plan%E2%80%99-by-France-Germany-report

They appear to not have learnt the lesson from the Brexit vote.

Sounds like a perfectly sensible solution really. it's about time that the EU fully integrated instead of the mess we have at the moment.

Crashy_Time

HornetSaver wrote: »

Many voters in the UK believe in the European Union.

Many voters in the other 27 countries do not believe in it.

Many voters in Wales support Plaid Cymru.

All three of the above are factually accurate statements. All three are currently irrelevant statements in the wider scheme of things.

The fact is that in those countries with the highest level of support for leaving the EU, the only political parties in favour of doing so are far-right (take for example the Front National in France, which Nigel Farage has frequently described as racist). This referendum succeeded because there were those across the political spectrum who were strongly enough in favour of it to force the Government to hold it. I see no signs of that in any other country unless a far right party takes power.

As I said, they don`t "all believe in it".

Crashy_Time

mrginge wrote: »

Sounds like a perfectly sensible solution really. it's about time that the EU fully integrated instead of the mess we have at the moment.

The chances of that are less than zero, it is just wait and see now who will be next up to the Leave springboard.