Is property in a bubble?

westernpromise

lisyloo wrote: »

If you're talking about central London then yes.
Much cheaper places are available further out like for example Croydon.

I wouldn't say Croydon was London any more than I'd say Hemel Hempstead was London.

South London is north Croydon, and Croydon is northern France.

westernpromise

padington wrote: »

Its the capital of Europe if not the world with really low unemployment so is doing pretty well because of immigration if you haven't noticed.

I always enjoy the posts from people who claim that London's expensive so clearly nobody wants to live there.

Crashtrollism is in a bubble, certainly. When your shoeshine boy tells you property's in a bubble it's time to buy.

Jason74

lisyloo wrote: »

If you're talking about central London then yes.
Much cheaper places are available further out like for example Croydon.

It's funny how different people (quite legitimately) look at things differently. I kind of get why genuinely prime London property costs what it does. There truly is only a very limited stock of it, and the current fashion means that it's something that's prized throughout the world. Of course, if that fashion changes it's a different story. But there's no sign of that right now, and that supply and demand dynamic is only ever going to mean one thing.

But when you look at some of the "much cheaper" places, that's when I really can't get my head round prices. I live not a million miles from Croydon (it's actually my local authority, although I'm at the edge of the borough close to where it meets three other boroughs) and I'm staggered as to what people are paying for properties. Take the example below.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54169516.html

That's a flat that imho really has little going for it, and represents something close to the very bottom of the market anywhere in london. A characterless modern box that at less than 35 square metres is only really suitable for one person. It's also in a not very nice area a fair distance from the main transport links or anything interesting.

And yet to buy it with a 10% deposit and 4.5x salary mortgage would need n income of around 45k (yes a couple both earning much less could buy it together, but they probably wouldn't be a couple for long trying to live together in a space that small). For me, the idea that a 45k salary only buys you that is in many ways far more crazy than the telephone number prices of genuinely exclusive properties..

Jason74

westernpromise wrote: »

When your shoeshine boy tells you property's in a bubble it's time to buy.

Well at the moment, your "shoeshine boy" is far more likely to tell you that property only ever goes up and you need to buy while you can. Does that mean it's time to sell :rotfl:

cells

Jason74 wrote: »

It's funny how different people (quite legitimately) look at things differently. I kind of get why genuinely prime London property costs what it does. There truly is only a very limited stock of it, and the current fashion means that it's something that's prized throughout the world. Of course, if that fashion changes it's a different story. But there's no sign of that right now, and that supply and demand dynamic is only ever going to mean one thing.

But when you look at some of the "much cheaper" places, that's when I really can't get my head round prices. I live not a million miles from Croydon (it's actually my local authority, although I'm at the edge of the borough close to where it meets three other boroughs) and I'm staggered as to what people are paying for properties. Take the example below.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54169516.html

That's a flat that imho really has little going for it, and represents something close to the very bottom of the market anywhere in london. A characterless modern box that at less than 35 square metres is only really suitable for one person. It's also in a not very nice area a fair distance from the main transport links or anything interesting.

And yet to buy it with a 10% deposit and 4.5x salary mortgage would need n income of around 45k (yes a couple both earning much less could buy it together, but they probably wouldn't be a couple for long trying to live together in a space that small). For me, the idea that a 45k salary only buys you that is in many ways far more crazy than the telephone number prices of genuinely exclusive properties..

The number of single person households needs to fall it is one of the main ways a country can have a faster growing population than a growing housing stock. And the market especially in areas of most need (London) is pricing property such that it is getting more and more difficult for single person household formations. aka your observation that a single person would find it hard to buy a one bed flat but for two it would not be that hard

Also like almost everyone you are ignoring the fact that inheritances and gifts play a big part (maybe the biggest factor) in the market.

How affordable is that flat or a nicer flat for someone who earns say £30k a year working for the NHS but just received an inheritance of over a million pounds? Clearly it is very affordable for this person who could buy it outright and still have the best part of a million left. To only look at wages bidding for property is silly when there is a huge non wage market bidding too

cells

Jason74 wrote: »

Well at the moment, your "shoeshine boy" is far more likely to tell you that property only ever goes up and you need to buy while you can. Does that mean it's time to sell :rotfl:

The UK is not one market it is at least 12 regions and often even the regions need to be broken down further (eg inner London is quite different from outer London)

Only one of those 12 regions, London, is expensive when viewed just through the lens of price to income. All the other regions vary from cheap to affordable on the income to price basis. Even London when you consider the huge amounts of gifts and inheritances left each year or that arrive each year is affordable

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

The UK is not one market it is at least 12 regions and often even the regions need to be broken down further (eg inner London is quite different from outer London)

Only one of those 12 regions, London, is expensive when viewed just through the lens of price to income. All the other regions vary from cheap to affordable on the income to price basis. Even London when you consider the huge amounts of gifts and inheritances left each year or that arrive each year is affordable

when you compare what a couple of young people on decent incomes could afford 20-30 years ago (in London/SE) and compare like for like, young people wanting to live in a family sized home are massively worse off.
This is mainly the result of the increase in population and so of immigration.

Immigration brings no benefits except a larger range of restaurants and coffee bars (necesary I suppose as people want to escape from their single room in a shared flat) but loads of disadvantages.

we have a great opportunity to halt the flow by voting to leave the EU and regain control of our own immigration policy

westernpromise

Jason74 wrote: »

Well at the moment, your "shoeshine boy" is far more likely to tell you that property only ever goes up and you need to buy while you can. Does that mean it's time to sell :rotfl:

Give me an example.

lisyloo

Jason74 wrote: »

It's funny how different people (quite legitimately) look at things differently. I kind of get why genuinely prime London property costs what it does. There truly is only a very limited stock of it, and the current fashion means that it's something that's prized throughout the world. Of course, if that fashion changes it's a different story. But there's no sign of that right now, and that supply and demand dynamic is only ever going to mean one thing.

But when you look at some of the "much cheaper" places, that's when I really can't get my head round prices. I live not a million miles from Croydon (it's actually my local authority, although I'm at the edge of the borough close to where it meets three other boroughs) and I'm staggered as to what people are paying for properties. Take the example below.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54169516.html

That's a flat that imho really has little going for it, and represents something close to the very bottom of the market anywhere in london. A characterless modern box that at less than 35 square metres is only really suitable for one person. It's also in a not very nice area a fair distance from the main transport links or anything interesting.

And yet to buy it with a 10% deposit and 4.5x salary mortgage would need n income of around 45k (yes a couple both earning much less could buy it together, but they probably wouldn't be a couple for long trying to live together in a space that small). For me, the idea that a 45k salary only buys you that is in many ways far more crazy than the telephone number prices of genuinely exclusive properties..

Being in London gets you access to lots of good jobs and career potential.
If you are a couple of bus drivers or nurses then I have no idea why you'd want to live in London, there are much nicer places to live for lower paid people who aren't getting the advantage of great career choices.

Thrugelmir

westernpromise wrote: »

I always enjoy the posts from people who claim that London's expensive so clearly nobody wants to live there.

Never had any desire to live in London.