Is property in a bubble?

Garethgrew

AG47 wrote: »

5. misallocation of resources? Help To Buy? Taxpayer money on
a last ditch attempt to keep property prices sky high for a little
longer.
6. spend more because they "feel" richer?
Rising property prices, use house as ATM? IT should say
BORROW more because they feel richer.
Buying a house? Watch out for desperate governments.
Desperate governments tax things that can’t move very highly.
A few years ago, when house prices in the likes of Spain,
France and Portugal were beginning to look remarkably cheap, I
said that while it all looked very tempting indeed,anyone wanting
to buy into the property market should proceed with some
caution.
Why? Taxes. Desperate governments tax things that can’t move.
Things such as houses. No surprise then that President
Hollande’s government yesterday had a go at “wealthy property
owners”.
This isn’t the first time – a few years ago France raised the
capital gains tax on the sale of second homes.

By all the official definitions yes property is a bubble, yes taxes will raise significant amounts in the future then the bubble will burst.

Filo25

paddyrg wrote: »

The other option, as the BBC have, is to reduce the jobs in London over time, and rebalance the country a little. There's no housing or space shortage in the country once you get up North and can buy a family home for the price of a couple of years London rent.

Unless you provide an incentive for the private sector to do so, they show little sign of doing so in significant numbers at present.

Where I work, most of our companies have their primary UK office in London, there is one which isn't, it is based in a much cheaper part of the country, you would think that would be attractive to us due to the lower rent and wages.

In fact we are looking at moving those operations to London as well because we struggle to recruit the talent we need outside London, some specialist job roles have been in recruitment for over a year and still haven't been filled.

Obviously that isn't typical for all companies but I have heard of similar instances elsewhere as well

silverwhistle

Filo25 wrote: »

In fact we are looking at moving those operations to London as well because we struggle to recruit the talent we need outside London, some specialist job roles have been in recruitment for over a year and still haven't been filled.

I'm not talking about your company, but employees don't trust employers anymore, therefore they want to be in an area with other possibilities if things go wrong. Plenty of people would like to move out of London, so perhaps your recruitment needs to take these factors into account.

So maybe a decent relocation package, but also a contract for (say) a minimum of two years so that it is worthwhile somebody considering the move and they aren't left in the lurch by company changes, failures and so forth?

silverwhistle

cells wrote: »

The only way is to buy up existing stock, knock it down and rebuild at higher density.

Except tower blocks are not necessarily the answer as this from a newspaper article points out:

Nor do towers have to do with population density. The idea that modern cities must “go high” as part of the densification cause is rubbish. External landscaping and internal servicing makes them costly and inefficient. The densest parts of London are the crowded and desirable low-rise terraces of Victorian Islington, Camden and Kensington. The recently proposed Paddington Pole, the height of the Shard, had just 330 flats on 72 storeys. Adjacent, Victorian Bayswater could supply 400 on the same plot.

lisyloo

silverwhistle wrote: »

Except tower blocks are not necessarily the answer as this from a newspaper article points out:

So that says that the ones built at the moment are rubbish but they could be the answer if built with density in mind?

MiserlyMartin

AG47 wrote: »

If you
look at the official definitions of a bubble and think of the
property market for each one.
1. popular mania? YES
Property prices are on everyone lips, in the news and everyone
loves to talk about them.
2. excessive debt? Oh YES!
Very excessive debt compared to the long term norm of about
3.5x income.
3. greater fool theory? Most definitely.
People do not mind excessive debt, if they think there will be a
greater fool who will value their property even high in the future.
4. high volumes at variance with intrinsic values? Yes by every
metric you look at. Especially London.

Most definately a bubble, however immigration is high. This is why most people who support the remain vote have vested interests in BTL, the EU gravy train, and all the other organisations which get EU funds and other parts of the EU racket.

There are no jobs up north in places where property is cheaper than the south, crime figures terrible too, this is why it is cheaper.. Still overpriced. Its only the expensive south which makes it look so cheap.

London will correct, don't know when but the longer this all goes on the worse it is going to be. When this happens the north will go down with it. I'm starting to think that it will be a global economic shock over which nobody has any control which will take it down and when that happens, your house value will be the last thing anyone is worried about.

cells

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

There are no jobs up north in places where property is cheaper than the south, crime figures terrible too, this is why it is cheaper.. Still overpriced. Its only the expensive south which makes it look so cheap.

In much of the north and midlands, the average terrace home costs no more to buy than it does to rent the average social home in the same area. That means without a doubt the north and midlands is affordable and I would go so far as to say cheap.

With regards to jobs there are plenty of Jobs outside of London in fact more than 80% of all jobs in the UK are outside London. Plenty of good jobs too. Are there no doctors or teachers or professors or solicitors outside of London?

London will correct, don't know when but the longer this all goes on the worse it is going to be. When this happens the north will go down with it. I'm starting to think that it will be a global economic shock over which nobody has any control which will take it down and when that happens, your house value will be the last thing anyone is worried about.

there are two types of people. Those who get on with life and those who always threat that the end of civilization is next week or the week after so they better brush up on their how to catch and skin rats skills. you would be the latter group?

economic

thats why his name is misrely

a lot of people tend to think of the worst and very risk averse so they think things like london property are a bubble and never buy or buy too late when they could have before and saved a few 100k. i guess you need people like that so there isnt too much demand and so the rest of us dont have to compete with more people to buy a home.

System

If prices were going to collapse, surely they'd already do so

I wouldn't be surprised if they slowed down to wage inflation, but current prices seem to be supported by the mortgage markey

lisyloo

Prices aren't going to collapse without some sort of economic shock or recession (barring perhaps limited sectors such as overpriced flats marketed to Chinese/Malaysian investors).

Immigration looks set to continue circa 300,000 per year (and that's net) and the economy is doing alright.
Rises may moderate but there won't be a collapse without a cause such as recession, economic chock like major terrorist event etc.

Something like the twin towers in London could of course have a big effect just like it did in 9/11, but in the meantime most of us will just get on with our lives and not cower under the covers (which is of course just what they want you to do).
If you are buying a home then long term it makes no odds.