Is property in a bubble?

antrobus

Crashy_Time wrote: »

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Won`t happen in your lifetime, barring a nuclear war, on the other hand it won`t be long until quite a few recent buyers regret their decision IMO.

There are quite a few people about who bought in 2007 and subsequently came to regret their decision. Prices fell, negative equity, repos etc and so forth. Every year there are people who buy a house and then wished they hadn't.

So what?

Taking pleasure in other's misfortunes isn't something to boast about,:)

GreatApe

Won`t happen in your lifetime, barring a nuclear war, on the other hand it won`t be long until quite a few recent buyers regret their decision IMO.

If only you could take one more step forward you would be enlightened

You are correct RECENT buyers could regret their decision if a house price correction happens. The bit you and the other hpc cheerleaders miss is that only 4% of homes transact in any given year therefore the risk of suffering the full extent of a hpc is only 4% in fact it is even less than that as only 0.3% of homes transact in a given month

Whats more the average home only transacts once every ~23 years so almost no one ever regrets buying. Sure the person who bought in mid 2007 made a paper loss by mid 2008 but he wont be selling until 2030 by which time he would have long forgotten about the 2008 correction and will be glad he bought in 2007 rather than listened to your lot and still be renting in 2030 hoping for the 80% crash that will recover his silly bet

Your lot are too cleaver for their own good. Housing is as low risk as anything in life.
While you worry about the risk of losing some pennies in a hpc the real risk of ageing has already bitten you on the !!!.

Your lot are also ultra conservative. I wonder how many of the hpc have decent cars? Millions of people buy new cars knowing full well the value is going to fall to zero in ten years time. Your lot cower about the possibility of a small house price correction that is unlikely to happen. What you dont realize is most people would still buy homes if they expected a 10-20% correction over a decade just like everyone buys cars expecting deprecation.

You and your pals should buy, if you are so scared of property just cut back on other things or get a second job or a better paying job and pay down the mortgage to zero in half the time.

But its not really about a house price crash. Your lot are just green with envy at others who have done better than you and want to world to crash and burn so you can smugly smile and get on top. It isn't going to happen your lot are a minority and always will be.

As always good luck to you

GreatApe

westernpromise wrote: »

I was reading that nonsense 22 years ago.

In the time Crashy's been short waiting for a crash he could have paid off a mortgage.

I feel sorry for them. My best guess is that the majority of the hpc cheerleaders are near the bottom financially and mostly single and could not afford to buy even if prices fell by 25% so they are understandably bitter. This is not healthy for them or society as bitter people want everything to crash and burn so hopefully in the next cycle they are not at the bottom

Unfortunately because it is a echo chamber of confirmation bias they dont have anyone over there saying guys lets get our act together if we want more in life we are going to have to have a plan and work on it.

House price crash cheerleaders should not spend 10-20 years crossing their fingers for property to crash and burn so they can buy for pennies on the pound that is a very bad idea you will wait and wait and get old and ugly. HPC cheerleaders you should work on getting higher paid work or starting a business and work on finding a good partner who is smart and can also work with you together to build a stable fulfilling life. Sure it will take a bit more work than logging onto a confirmation website a couple of hours a day to vent at your lot and comfort each other to how smart and wise you are waiting for this crash the sheep cant see but the extra work will pay off while the hpc website wont

Malthusian

It's in poor taste to bring this up right now but there's never going to be a good time. HPC are essentially incels. Only the target of their hate is homeowners instead of women, and the root cause is their lack of a house rather than the lack of a girlfriend.

They have all the same inadequacies. They are almost universally men. Instead of improving their situation (joining a club, saving up for a deposit) they seek out others who are in an equally miserable situation and convince each other that it's not their fault, and therefore they don't have to do anything. It's crab mentality - although crabs aren't stupid enough to voluntarily dive into the bucket of crabs. They even both talk about "taking the red pill" which in their eyes means "seeing the truth" when in fact it means buying into a cultish echo chamber worldview.

I'm not saying that we're going to see Crashy on the news being hauled out of a van after driving into The London Home Show and skittling a dozen pedestrians, but can we rule it out?

GreatApe

If the average property costs £225,000 a 30% crash would save £67,500 that is equal to roughly getting a job that pays £3-4k extra per year. Why not just aim for a slightly better paying job rather than prying chanting cheering a hpc?

Option 1 is to spend 10,000 hours on a forum of bias and misinformation where everyone is patting themselves on the back for being so cleaver to see what everyone else is missing and they and their group will all save £67,500 because of how smart and superior they are when the market turns within a few short months

Option 2 is to spend those 10,000 becoming a master at something and increasing your earning power and quality of life accordingly.

Option one is a risk that fails almost all the time, option two is a method to improve your life almost all of the time. The long time volume posters over at hpc are fools dam fools drawing others into their foolish ways.

phillw

Malthusian wrote: »

They are almost universally men.

Right, stereo-typically men are expected to be providers. If they can't provide then they are worthless. That is what drives their anger. When women get desperate then they have the choice of acquiring resources through other means.

incels don't hate women either, they are just acting like daily mail readers because they are in pain.

The most important feature of a bubble is that nobody knows they are in one, so it's impossible to give an accurate answer to the question.