Is property in a bubble?

AG47

chucknorris wrote: »

As I said I've heard it all before, the thing is you'll still be saying the same thing in 10 years from now.

And if you think the bubble will stay this inflated for another ten years then you are more deluded than I thought.




Right now there are many members of the European Union that were emboldened by the UK vote to Leave the EU. They are feeling nationalistic and see the UK decision as a positive thing.

Unless the EU and the Bad Guys PROVE that it is a very bad move ALL of the EU counties will try to leave.

If the stock markets continue to soar over the next few weeks it will have a very, very, very negative effect on the European Union and those that want to show the world that there is no other choice but to follow their lead.

Watch for a MASSIVE attempt by the EU and the Bad Guys to destroy the financial markets in the coming weeks as it will be the only thing left to save the EU. Come mid-July, when the derivatives are settled, there won't be much left to pass around.

Monday could go either way as the US and the Exchange Stabilization Fund will be all over propping up the markets. In the end the crash will come and then it comes down to blame.

The EU will blame the departure of the UK for the crash.

The battles are raging and you have a front row seat

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

And if you think the bubble will stay this inflated for another ten years then you are more deluded than I thought.

You are the one who is deluded, how long have you been saying this? I have been hearing this from deluded fools like you since 1991 when I first started buying investment property, and our property portfolio is now worth a lot of money. Property is almost certain to crash within 10 years, but it will only crash to a level above where you could have bought if you had not been so timid. I'm beginning to wonder why I bother, you are obviously not capable of understanding this.

AG47

chucknorris wrote: »

You are the one who is deluded, how long have you been saying this? I have been hearing this from deluded fools like you since 1991 when I first started buying investment property, and our property portfolio is now worth a lot of money. Property is almost certain to crash within 10 years, but it will only crash to a level above where you could have bought if you had not been so timid. I'm beginning to wonder why I bother, you are obviously not capable of understanding this.

Back in the 90s the prop bears were proved correct. That was a significant bottom I was buying back then, I have since sold all of my property portfolio which I think will prove to be near the very top this time around.

I will start buying again near the bottom of the next prop crash, but there is plenty of time yet before we are any where near the bottom ):) I can see property falling in real terms for quite some time before it bottoms out again.

The perma prop Bulls are to quote your words " obviously not capable of understanding this"

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

Back in the 90s the prop bears were proved correct. That was a significant bottom I was buying back then, I have since sold all of my property portfolio which I think will prove to be near the very top this time around.

I will start buying again near the bottom of the next prop crash, but there is plenty of time yet before we are any where near the bottom ):) I can see property falling in real terms for quite some time before it bottoms out again.

The perma prop Bulls are to quote your words " obviously not capable of understanding this"

I don't believe that you sold near the top (although I could believe that you actually think this), what year did you sell? Our properties have increased in value by approx £2m since about 2010/11 (I can't be exact because I only rarely check capital values). Because you were saying in 2013 that you had been warning of falls for a long time, so sorry but you saying that you sold near the top simply doesn't add up.

Also you previously said that you don't currently own property, so are you saying that you not only sold all your investment property, but you also sold your home too? If so, that is not particularly a wise thing to do.

It wouldn't surprise me if your bitterness is because you now realise that you could have stayed in a bit longer and made a few more £m, if so, tough luck, you have to accept that responsibility yourself.

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

Back in the 90s the prop bears were proved correct. That was a significant bottom I was buying back then, I have since sold all of my property portfolio which I think will prove to be near the very top this time around.

I will start buying again near the bottom of the next prop crash, but there is plenty of time yet before we are any where near the bottom ):) I can see property falling in real terms for quite some time before it bottoms out again.

The perma prop Bulls are to quote your words " obviously not capable of understanding this"

Something else doesn't quite ring quite true here, and after the football finished last night it has been preying on my mind, about you recently selling a property portfolio that you originally bought in the 90's, with the view to later reinvesting again:

1. If we did that, it would cost us approx £1.25m in CGT, stamp duty, estate agent's fees, not to mention the possibility of rental voids near to the sale. It is not something that someone would do.

2. If you originally bought a property portfolio back in the 90's, you would probably be similar to my age, and like me approaching retirement, I don't think that many people would sell up, and later reinvest into an illiquid asset again at that time of life (having to pay all those costs). You even say that there is 'plenty of time', but there isn't at your time of life because property is a long term investment.

3. The language that you use e.g. 'perma bulls' etc. I have never heard before from property investors, you just don't sound like someone that has previously owned a property portfolio to me.

Futhermore you posted this in 2013:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/61620499#Comment_61620499

I messed up. We had a change in situation my wife started working I tried ringing up to tell TC. On hold for ages kept getting cut off. We kept trying to get through to someone we did not know how to get through to someone.

Now all payments have stopped. No child tax credit or working tax credit at all for weeks and weeks.

Things are getting hard for us, we only have a small amount of earnings, itsnot enough to live on. we are slipping further and further into debt. the debt is now in the several thousands.

We are maxed out all our overdrafts and credit cards. No new wages are due until the end of the month. Child benefit comes once a month but we already spent all that this month.Our kids are hungry and the nearest food bank is a long way from us, we have no money at all to get there.

Are there any options for please, we are in a very desperate situation. really our kids are hungry and we have no money at all since our TC have been stopped.

Hardly the situation of someone who was selling a very profitable property portfolio near the top of the market, is it?

Garethgrew

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Never had any desire to live in London.

Not many do, it's the greater fool therory

Garethgrew

Garethgrew wrote: »

Not many do, it's the greater fool therory

Yes greater fool theory,

https://youtu.be/Y1ewRNSfyiI

AG47

Garethgrew wrote: »

Yes greater fool theory,

https://youtu.be/Y1ewRNSfyiI

There is n opposite side to the greater fool theory, I men there is always. Fool at the end. If they are holding a tulip or any overpriced asset, it's all about fear and greed.

Fear is the most powerful, when property owners fear a huge correction to the market, they will sell on mass in a panic

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

There is n opposite side to the greater fool theory, I men there is always. Fool at the end. If they are holding a tulip or any overpriced asset, it's all about fear and greed.

Fear is the most powerful, when property owners fear a huge correction to the market, they will sell on mass in a panic

Do you mean sell real property, or just imaginary property portfolios like yours was? You know what I'm talking about, that property portfolio that you sold at the top of the market, but at about the same time were on this website saying that you were too short of money to feed your children!

Garethgrew

AG47 wrote: »

If you
look at the official definitions of a bubble and think of the
property market for each one.
1. popular mania? YES
Property prices are on everyone lips, in the news and everyone
loves to talk about them.
2. excessive debt? Oh YES!
Very excessive debt compared to the long term norm of about
3.5x income.
3. greater fool theory? Most definitely.
People do not mind excessive debt, if they think there will be a
greater fool who will value their property even high in the future.
4. high volumes at variance with intrinsic values? Yes by every
metric you look at. Especially London.

AG47 wrote: »

5. misallocation of resources? Help To Buy? Taxpayer money on
a last ditch attempt to keep property prices sky high for a little
longer.
6. spend more because they "feel" richer?
Rising property prices, use house as ATM? IT should say
BORROW more because they feel richer.
Buying a house? Watch out for desperate governments.
Desperate governments tax things that can’t move very highly.
A few years ago, when house prices in the likes of Spain,
France and Portugal were beginning to look remarkably cheap, I
said that while it all looked very tempting indeed,anyone wanting
to buy into the property market should proceed with some
caution.
Why? Taxes. Desperate governments tax things that can’t move.
Things such as houses. No surprise then that President
Hollande’s government yesterday had a go at “wealthy property
owners”.
This isn’t the first time – a few years ago France raised the
capital gains tax on the sale of second homes.

Can anybody still argue that uk property does not fit all these definitions of a bubble?