Referendum: which way are you voting?

qwert_yuiop

donnac2558 wrote: »

Interesting one about the US deal worth ££££££ which was suddenly cancelled last week. Of course they are saying its because the man leading it has suddenly decided to move to another company. Of course we believe you:D:D Nothing to do with Brexit at all;);)

Whatever's going on, it's not worrying the stock market, which is now up around ten percent since the day after the result. Those capitalists are hardly buying British shares in the expectation of losing money. Possibly the devaluation of the pound, which also seems to have stopped, has done exactly what it's supposed to - reduce imports and boost exports.

donnac2558

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Whatever's going on, it's not worrying the stock market, which is now up around ten percent since the day after the result. Those capitalists are hardly buying British shares in the expectation of losing money. Possibly the devaluation of the pound, which also seems to have stopped, has done exactly what it's supposed to - reduce imports and boost exports.

That is because for them its only ever be about LONDON. No where else matters to the chancellor or the stock market. They will protect London at all costs the rest Wales,Scotland and Northern Ireland are ants which do not really matter in the markets.

chunter

Remain

The stock market is no more than a 9-5 Paddy Power office. They gamble - that's their job. Ignore the stocks and shares and watch the pound collapse. It might take a year, it might take two or three. But once the big multinationals pull out because they need to be in that free market, well then, you might well see signs in the local shops with "WE ACCEPT EUROS" in the windows.

If May's not going to spend billions on a building and maintaining a border, then Northern Ireland has it's own unique problem. European migrants will be blocked at the GB border. They will not be blocked from entering the UK (NI) through Ireland. Why Northern Ireland? A European migrant may well be able to access the UK benefits system and health service without having to get through it's borders.

RikM

Remain

chunter wrote: »

The stock market is no more than a 9-5 Paddy Power office. They gamble - that's their job. Ignore the stocks and shares and watch the pound collapse. It might take a year, it might take two or three. But once the big multinationals pull out because they need to be in that free market, well then, you might well see signs in the local shops with "WE ACCEPT EUROS" in the windows.

If May's not going to spend billions on a building and maintaining a border, then Northern Ireland has it's own unique problem. European migrants will be blocked at the GB border. They will not be blocked from entering the UK (NI) through Ireland. Why Northern Ireland? A European migrant may well be able to access the UK benefits system and health service without having to get through it's borders.

You do know there's currently a residency requirement? Probably can't apply to EU nationals at present, but if that link is severed, then anyone from abroad trying to claim benefits will have to show themselves to have been habitually resident here.

Of course that test goes out of the window, if the EU insists on the common travel area persisting, post-Brexit, as a condition of market access.

qwert_yuiop

RikM wrote: »

You do know there's currently a residency requirement? Probably can't apply to EU nationals at present, but if that link is severed, then anyone from abroad trying to claim benefits will have to show themselves to have been habitually resident here.

Of course that test goes out of the window, if the EU insists on the common travel area persisting, post-Brexit, as a condition of market access.

Common travel and access to health care and welfare are different issues. You're right - there'd be no obligation to give an outsider anything. In jersey, which is outside the eu, foreigners are not entitled to any welfare. If you're an outsider working in jersey on a work permit, and you lose your job, you have one week to get out.

Any putative duty on British goods would already have been rendered pointless by the drop in value of the pound. Market access is not going to be prevented. Doesn't Germany run on gas from the supposedly hostile Russia?

qwert_yuiop

chunter wrote: »

The stock market is no more than a 9-5 Paddy Power office. They gamble - that's their job. Ignore the stocks and shares and watch the pound collapse. It might take a year, it might take two or three. But once the big multinationals pull out because they need to be in that free market, well then, you might well see signs in the local shops with "WE ACCEPT EUROS" in the windows.

I'd like to go to a paddy power office tomorrow and make a very large bet that this will not happen.
I presume you've already arranged to short sell the pound, based on the above claim? Why not get rich if you're sure this is going to happen?
The stocks and shares and the value of the pound are inextricably linked. If multinationals can make money they're not going anywhere.

RikM

Remain

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

I'd like to go to a paddy power office tomorrow and make a very large bet that this will not happen.
I presume you've already arranged to short sell the pound, based on the above claim? Why not get rich if you're sure this is going to happen?
The stocks and shares and the value of the pound are inextricably linked. If multinationals can make money they're not going anywhere.

Yes... But when you're talking finance, the big boys will make money whether or not the market/pound tanks, and will hedge whichever way looks less likely. It's only unpredictable crashes which catch them out.

People who actually make things and deal with movement of goods are in a different boat, but then London is mostly finance, and it's probably the biggest part of the economy. Brexit might be good for that, except that we might get excluded from t2s and euro trading etc. But some tories would probably love to set up the UK as a near-shore tax haven...

qwert_yuiop

[QUOTEBut some tories would probably love to set up the UK as a near-shore tax haven...[/QUOTE]

And why not? They have to make sure the world knows Britain is business friendly. I was a Stay voter, and I still think the whole brexit was disruptive and unnecessary, but they have to boost confidence now the deed's been done. I'm not sure bojo as foreign secretary is such a good idea, though.

Anyway, the boat sails on - it seems the next crisis is a teetering Italian banking system. Expect cartoons of seriously leaning towers and sinking gondolas soon.

RikM

Remain

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

[QUOTEBut some tories would probably love to set up the UK as a near-shore tax haven...

And why not? They have to make sure the world knows Britain is business friendly. I was a Stay voter, and I still think the whole brexit was disruptive and unnecessary, but they have to boost confidence now the deed's been done. I'm not sure bojo as foreign secretary is such a good idea, though.

Anyway, the boat sails on - it seems the next crisis is a teetering Italian banking system. Expect cartoons of seriously leaning towers and sinking gondolas soon.[/QUOTE]

I suspect the BoJo thing is an act of political genius; either he pulls it off (in which case she gets credit for it) or more likely, he stuffs it up badly enough to never be a credible opponent again. Either way, he's front and centre and taking the flack.

German newscasters being unable to keep a straight face while announcing it, is probably indicative of how foreign governments are going to treat him...

qwert_yuiop

Good point. There has to be some method in the madness. She hardly got that far in her career by being stupid.