Octopus Energy reviews: Give your feedback

Telegraph_Sam

Speculation continues . In the absence of crystal balls .....
1. Octopus will have contracted, as part of the hedging process, to offtake a certain no of kWh's over specified time periods. These may or may not correspond to their own Go Faster periods. The contractural partner will be the next in line upstream, Shell or whoever.
2. It would be  unusual not to say risky if Octopus was to hedge 100%  of their forecast offtake since forecasts being forecasts there would inevitably be divergences and penalties.  Even without hedging it is predictable that Octopus will not hit their forecast targets in each time slot for any length of time - overshoots and undershoots are predictable and their planning must take this into account..
3 The conclusion is that in all probability Octopus will have incorporated an element of flexibility into their planning rather than tie themselves up in a straightjacket, a hostage to fortune.
4. It is unlikely to be of any interest to [Shell] how Octopus divvies up their offtake [EV's, small appliances or whatever].  They will confine their interest to whether the combined total offtake per period equates to what is in the contract.
5. It is therefore an "internal" decision by Octopus whether they divvy up their supply over a relatively small number of large EV owning consumers or a relatively large number of smaller non-EV using consumers.  The decision can be driven by PR / marketing / idealogical or just plain commercial motivations. There could well be an argument in favour of spreading their supply over a larger more diversified customer base rather than be dependent on the whims of a few larger customers. A balanced mix would be the logical way to go.
6. Bear in mind that whatever logistical decisions are taken at the beginning of a  planning period, these are not written in stone but can be adapted to circumstances as events unfold. Flexibility rules OK..

The upshot is that Octopus can of course incorporate whatever T's and C's they like to bias a given tariff but there is little stopping them from subsequently tweaking the implementation of the terms (for new entrants) if it suits their purpose. The better the data quality the less the need to do this but one cannot exclude the other.

All the above is I repeat pure speculation and open to rubbishing where appropriate from readers with more informed insights than mine.

savers_united

I think you have answered a lot of your own questions there. We simply do not have the data, So time to accept that the energy market is changing, businesses (Both upstream & downstream) are tightening up and maybe even trying to claw back some of their current losses.
Just see it as a couple of years where Octopus did not enforce the rules and now prices are rocketing and Ev ownership increasing they have taken a different approach. 

This may change again in the future, but like most suppliers at the minute they are probably working on tight margins and perhaps do not have that same level of flexibility they had when agreeing contracts last time around. 

Telegraph_Sam

I was idly wondering just how the demand forecasting process differs from the "normal" when the artificial constraint of EV ownership is added. Arguably it is more difficult the lower  the numbers of consumers are since the effect / advantage of the law of averages will be reduced. It is not as if the planners can interrogate each [EV] consumer as to his individual intentions. At the end of the day it still amounts to star gazing and crystal balls and projection of comparable past data, and the wider and less constrained the spread the better from a statistical point of view.

MWT

Telegraph_Sam said:

It is not as if the planners can interrogate each [EV] consumer as to his individual intentions. At the end of the day it still amounts to star gazing and crystal balls and projection of comparable past data, and the wider and less constrained the spread the better from a statistical point of view.

No, but if the data isn't cluttered with people who don't fit the profile they have a better chance of figuring out a predictive algorithm...

I'm done with this topic for now though, you can debate it all you want, but in the end it is their ball and they get to say who plays...

niktheguru

Telegraph_Sam said:

I was idly wondering just how the demand forecasting process differs from the "normal" when the artificial constraint of EV ownership is added. Arguably it is more difficult the lower  the numbers of consumers are since the effect / advantage of the law of averages will be reduced. It is not as if the planners can interrogate each [EV] consumer as to his individual intentions. At the end of the day it still amounts to star gazing and crystal balls and projection of comparable past data, and the wider and less constrained the spread the better from a statistical point of view.

Also another thing to consider Sam is why would octopus want all and sundry (especially the new 400000 Avro customers) access to a cheaper tariff when prices are now sky high? They need to restrict it somehow so if they’ve chosen ev users then so be it, it’s probably because they get the data they need from us for future use.

it really doesn’t matter what their reasoning is, whether they’re trying to encourage land shifting or not to whichever group. The fact is it’s going to be restricted to ev users going forward. The non ev users will be able to look elsewhere for the next best cheapest tariff. Just like when a normal 12 month fix ends and you have to look for the latest best tariff as your previous one is no longer available.

QrizB

niktheguru said:

Also another thing to consider Sam is why would octopus want all and sundry (especially the new 400000 Avro customers) access to a cheaper tariff when prices are now sky high?

I'll just drop into conversation that Octopus have raised the standard rate on Go (my region) to 24.14p/kWh, higher than the 22.01p/kWh Flexible day rate on E7 or 20.49p/kWh Flexible single rate. Go is no longer a cheap option unless you move at least ~19% of your use to the four cheap hours. (E7 needs 22% in seven.)

Plus the SC on Go is 25p, not 24.19p (E7) or 24.11p (single rate).

Edit: if anyone wants to check their own areas, or if you're with a different supplier, the formula is (day rate - std rate)/(day rate - night rate). This will give you a number less than one which you multiply by 100 to give a percentage.

Telegraph_Sam

@ nik I pass in answer to your question.  It's an academic exercise to speculate what reasoning drives them to introduce the EV constraint - which everyone agrees they are entitled to do. My own view is that this is convuluted way of going about it when there is a thing called the tariff pricing mechanism that achieves the same aim simpler, fairer and more cleanly. If this is a minority view so be it

savers_united

QrizB said:

niktheguru said:

Also another thing to consider Sam is why would octopus want all and sundry (especially the new 400000 Avro customers) access to a cheaper tariff when prices are now sky high?

I'll just drop into conversation that Octopus have raised the standard rate on Go (my region) to 24.14p/kWh, higher than the 22.01p/kWh Flexible day rate on E7 or 20.49p/kWh Flexible single rate. Go is no longer a cheap option unless you move at least ~19% of your use to the four cheap hours. (E7 needs 22% in seven.)

Plus the SC on Go is 25p, not 24.19p (E7) or 24.11p (single rate).

Edit: if anyone wants to check their own areas, or if you're with a different supplier, the formula is (day rate - std rate)/(day rate - night rate). This will give you a number less than one which you multiply by 100 to give a percentage.

'Go' should not have the cheapest day time tariff, if you can move much of your use to the early hours (which the tariff is designed for) then overall it will work out cheaper then other Octopus tariffs.

I am using around 7000kwh per annum, it's split around 50/50 and my rate averages around 10.5p per kWh, so overall its the cheapest.

When I am due for renewel I'll need to redo the maths based on the new rate and / or look at what further load shifting I can do to swing it maybe to 60/40 in favour of off peak use.

It is also a fixed tariff giving 12mths security v the variable rates you mention. If you are an EV owner it gives you fixed price motoring costs for 12mths. 

kokolino23

We've been moved to Octopus following Avro Energy going busted. I've been adviced not to cancel the DD with Avro but they kept taking money from our account. Not sure if should I setup a DD with Octopus as well yet or wait until the switch is completed.

Octoput put us on their Flexible Avro (what an irony) apparently a great-value variable tariff ?!
Prices (including VAT) are:

• A standing charge of 24.86p per day and 20.99p/kWh for your electricity.
• A standing charge of 26.11p per day and 4.13p/kWh for your gas.

Not sure if I can find a better one with Octopus or should we look for another supplier ?!

Thanks

QrizB

kokolino23 said:

Octoput put us on their Flexible Avro (what an irony) apparently a great-value variable tariff ?!
Prices (including VAT) are:

• A standing charge of 24.86p per day and 20.99p/kWh for your electricity.
• A standing charge of 26.11p per day and 4.13p/kWh for your gas.

Not sure if I can find a better one with Octopus or should we look for another supplier ?!

There isn't a better one with Octopus.

There's only one better one anywhere else, with Neon Reef (a tiny company that everyone expects to go bust, but seems to be hanging on).