Outlook If The UK Remains In The EU, But Other Countries Leave?

Masomnia

Generali wrote: »

Most financially viable countries are part of larger trading compacts. The USA is, Australia is.

Lots of people vote for socialism but that's because they're stupid not because it's good for them.

If we were talking about a trading bloc there wouldn't even be a referendum because no one would have a problem (apart from some fringe loonies).

The EU can pass laws, and if they pass laws that conflict with UK law then the EU law takes precedence. The US and Aus are not involved in any such arrangement; there's no comparison.

Generali

Masomnia wrote: »

If we were talking about a trading bloc there wouldn't even be a referendum because no one would have a problem (apart from some fringe loonies).

The EU can pass laws, and if they pass laws that conflict with UK law then the EU law takes precedence. The US and Aus are not involved in any such arrangement; there's no comparison.

Not true. The WTO Rules trump national laws and both Australia and the USA are members of the WTO.

Johnsmith2016

Generali wrote: »

Sure.

Will Turkey join the EU at some point between one second from now and the end of time? Probably.

we are making baby steps we got a probably ! .... Okay ... Now lets try the 2nd baby step... WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS ... When is your "probably" most likely to occur ?

A) 1 second
12 months
C) 3 years
D) a decade
E 10-20 years
F) end of time

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

we are making baby steps we got a probably ! .... Okay ... Now lets try the 2nd baby step... WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS ... When is your "probably" most likely to occur ?

A) 1 second
12 months
C) 3 years
D) a decade
E 10-20 years
F) end of time

Yes. One of those or perhaps none.

I don't know whether you have me confused with another poster but you should realise that I'm not a fortune teller.

Johnsmith2016

No confusion.... Thank you

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

No confusion.... Thank you

Any time old thing.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Not true. The WTO Rules trump national laws and both Australia and the USA are members of the WTO.

But you don't actually believe there is any real comparison between WTO rules and the EU rules.

Your worship of the Eu is affecting your judgement : is that guilt because you rejected her and throw lager in her face?

vivatifosi

Here's what I see happening. Countries like Austria will stay in the EU, but join the more eurosceptic nations in opposing closer union. I don't think closer union can now happen, there's too much sentiment against it

However this will store up problems for the Eurozone... If you want to be more of a trading bloc (which, whichever way you look at it makes sense), then staying in is fine, but do they want to stay in the euro and bankroll the south? Equally imo, a divided European Union will find it even harder to deal with the thorny issue of immigration.

In terms of Turkey, I can foresee a special nation status coming into play. It is too big to join and will cause imbalance inside. However it has no real natural partners, being distrusted by its other neighbours.. the Arab world isn't keen and neither is Russia. Therefore having a favourable bilateral trade agreement without full free movement would make sense and help the country further it's development.

kabayiri

Will it be policy which drives further EU expansion, or the need to respond to events?

Did the decision of Chancellor Merkel, to take in 1m or so Syrian refugees, drive future EU policy more than any longer term plan?

The situation regards Turkey could change and evolve very quickly in the next few years. I'm not sure anyone can come up with a clear plan in the face of some pretty big geopolitical challenges.

CLAPTON

vivatifosi wrote: »

Here's what I see happening. Countries like Austria will stay in the EU, but join the more eurosceptic nations in opposing closer union. I don't think closer union can now happen, there's too much sentiment against it

However this will store up problems for the Eurozone... If you want to be more of a trading bloc (which, whichever way you look at it makes sense), then staying in is fine, but do they want to stay in the euro and bankroll the south? Equally imo, a divided European Union will find it even harder to deal with the thorny issue of immigration.

In terms of Turkey, I can foresee a special nation status coming into play. It is too big to join and will cause imbalance inside. However it has no real natural partners, being distrusted by its other neighbours.. the Arab world isn't keen and neither is Russia. Therefore having a favourable bilateral trade agreement without full free movement would make sense and help the country further it's development.

it would seem to me that the whole world would be a better place if there was more free trade unencumbered by the issue of movement of people.

If the EU hadn't spent 50 years prevented developing countries trading then who knows, the countries of Africa and maybe the middle east would be better places.