Outlook If The UK Remains In The EU, But Other Countries Leave?

Johnsmith2016

Nevermind then.

Johnsmith2016

People seem to talk and think like being independent is some radical strange new crazy thing we should be wary of - when actually its the norm in most other countries, and has been tried and tested and is not some new thing we should be fearful of.
Interesting coincidence that eurosceptism is highest amoung the older generation - the ones who remember a time before the EU and have lived, with and without the EU so are perhaps best placed to judge. Most under 40 dont know anything else, a bit like the matrix.
Personally if remaining was genuinley the best thing for us i really would expect it to be land slide and the remain to be winning like 85/15% - it really shouldnt even be close, add in all the advantages with having the governement on your side, big banks, media, businesses, etc all on your side, plus universities who get thier funding from eu drilling it into students so the young vote defo should favour the remain - with all these clear advantages (and the 9m leaflet) it really shouldnt be roughly 50/50 as it is now.

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

People seem to talk and think like being independent is some radical strange new crazy thing we should be wary of - when actually its the norm in most other countries, and has been tried and tested and is not some new thing we should be fearful of.
Interesting coincidence that eurosceptism is highest amoung the older generation - the ones who remember a time before the EU and have lived, with and without the EU so are perhaps best placed to judge. Most under 40 dont know anything else, a bit like the matrix.
Personally if remaining was genuinley the best thing for us i really would expect it to be land slide and the remain to be winning like 85/15% - it really shouldnt even be close, add in all the advantages with having the governement on your side, big banks, media, businesses, etc all on your side, plus universities who get thier funding from eu drilling it into students so the young vote defo should favour the remain - with all these clear advantages (and the 9m leaflet) it really shouldnt be roughly 50/50 as it is now.

Most financially viable countries are part of larger trading compacts. The USA is, Australia is.

Lots of people vote for socialism but that's because they're stupid not because it's good for them.

globalds

Generali wrote: »

Most financially viable countries are part of larger trading compacts. The USA is, Australia is.

.

But those trading groups are not really comparable to the European model.

Strange you mention Socialism with such contempt ..When it is the same blind devotion to an ideology even when reality shows again and again it is a busted flush that is so frustrating about the European dreamers.

Yes any model can be made to work ..if you throw enough tax payers cash at it.
European growth rates are staggeringly low ..Unemployment staggeringly high .
Far from being a catalyst of change and a domain for higher levels of joined up progressive thinking.
It has become an entrenched barrier to reform and another tool for large players to dominate negations for their own benefit.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Most financially viable countries are part of larger trading compacts. The USA is, Australia is.

Lots of people vote for socialism but that's because they're stupid not because it's good for them.

the EU isn't just a trading block
it seeks to be a sovereign state with common fiscal and monetary policies and to impose common social and employment policies-

which of Aus' trading partner do that?

cells

Generali wrote: »

LOL. If I thought you were right I'd get you a job on our fixed income desk. Sadly you're just another idiot with an opinion and as they say opinions are like bottoms: everyone has one and they generally stink.

Not that I want another Turkey thread but IMO the earliest Turkey could join would be october 2023 which would be symbolic as it would be 100 years since its modern founding. There would then be a 7 year wait for freedom of movement of people which would take it to 2030 before the hordes of turks (all 200,000-300,000 of them over a period of 15 years) make their way to England.

The chances of that happening is 1/100 and by 2030 the turks will be 3x as rich as the poles were back when they joined so the economic pull factor will be much less.

More realistic I think is to add 20 years to that timeframe so 2050 and then only if both sides want it.


Well before they join there needs to be an extension of the free trade agreements specifically agricultural goods. The turks would export a lot of fruit and veg and likely import a lot of meat and poultry. That will happen years before they join and its not in place yet

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Not that I want another Turkey thread but IMO the earliest Turkey could join would be october 2023 which would be symbolic as it would be 100 years since its modern founding. There would then be a 7 year wait for freedom of movement of people which would take it to 2030 before the hordes of turks (all 200,000-300,000 of them over a period of 15 years) make their way to England.

The chances of that happening is 1/100 and by 2030 the turks will be 3x as rich as the poles were back when they joined so the economic pull factor will be much less.

More realistic I think is to add 20 years to that timeframe so 2050 and then only if both sides want it.


Well before they join there needs to be an extension of the free trade agreements specifically agricultural goods. The turks would export a lot of fruit and veg and likely import a lot of meat and poultry. That will happen years before they join and its not in place yet

what is encouraging about your post is your recognition of bureaucratic, slow, inflexible EU processes which will eventually see is decline and die. Image some-one being proud to part of an organisation that will take 35 years to reach a glorified trade agreement with a neighbour.

BobQ

This talk of TU joining the EU is absurd for so many reasons:

All 28 nations would need to agree. Many countries require referendums for such changes.
France and Germany are against its membership at the moment
Many Europeans do not view Turkey as a European country
Greece has territorial disputes with TU over some islands
Turkey did not want the Cyprus question settled until 2000
Turkey does not act in accordance with EU principles (treatment of minorities)
EU agenda at present is complicated enough as it tries to is assimilate recent joiners, so why complicate things.
The rules require then to join the Euro which already has issues.

BobQ

As to the OP, I cannot see this happening. I could see some nations leaving the Euro.

If such things did happen, say 7 like minded nations threating to leave it would be a nuclear option for those states. I suspect the UK might then decide to leave as well, since that could lead to 7 nations joining with the EFTA states to have a reasonable trading block. But it is very unlikely and would create an even bigger mess than Brexit.

If as you suggest FR/GE/IT/SP/NL/UK/DE all agreed that the present system needed to change they would simply drive more substantial change within the EU that is acceptable to what you call a Eurosceptic view.

Your final two sentences

We can also be sure if we remain, after june their will be sweeping changes in the EU, they will not want a repeat and will make it near impossible for us to leave or get treaty changes going forward, they will tighten their grip.

With a EU army, social union to control our minimim wage, pensions and benefits, and turkey will join at some point.

is pure paranoia. It turned an unlikely scenario that could be speculated upon into fiction

The idea that anyone can make such changes without the nations agreeing is plain daft

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

what is encouraging about your post is your recognition of bureaucratic, slow, inflexible EU processes which will eventually see is decline and die. Image some-one being proud to part of an organisation that will take 35 years to reach a glorified trade agreement with a neighbour.

I dont think its because of slow bureaucratic EU. its to give Turkey time to catch up economically and socially to a level where it is more acceptable to let them in.