Outlook If The UK Remains In The EU, But Other Countries Leave?

Johnsmith2016

I think one area not really being discussed is the rising eurosceptism across all europe.

And what will the future look like if britain does remain but then other countries leave?
Will it leave britain funding a bigger burden of the north/south Euro divide, bailing out the failing countries?
Already looks like another Greece bail out is on the way. And we cant doubt one of the key reasons Germany wants us to remain is to share the heavy burden with them of funding the failing parts of the EU.

France are more eurosceptic than uk, dutch is growing and voted no to Ukraine but EU refused to ackknowledge the people showing their true democractic colours.

german resentment is growing to merkal causing a disaster , iceland let their application to join lapse on purpose, danes had a referendum in dec, norway frustrated with migration, and greeks surely would opt out if they could afford to. Spain are also right up there and prob 1st to leave imo, and surely italians wont be happy with med crisis.

So what if we remain, but 1 or 2 of the big players leave? Will we be stuck funding a bigger part of this disaster wishing we had took the opportunity to leave? Is this a genuine threat?
We can also be sure if we remain, after june their will be sweeping changes in the EU, they will not want a repeat and will make it near impossible for us to leave or get treaty changes going forward, they will tighten their grip.
With a EU army, social union to control our minimim wage, pensions and benefits, and turkey will join at some point.

Generali

Has Turkey joined the EU yet or is that next week?

TBH, I take your predictions regarding the EU with more than just a pinch of salt.

Johnsmith2016

Take my predictions however you want.

Do you think Turkey wont join? - just for the record.

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Take my predictions however you want.

Do you think Turkey wont join? - just for the record.

By October? No chance.

paddyrg

There's a lot of sabre-rattling by a vocal minority in many countries, this is because the grass is always greener. Many countries think all their problems are eased by joining the club, other people think they'll be eased by leaving. Neither is right, both are right. Some things make some people richer/happier but others worse, and vice versa. The gains and losses are smaller and more marginal than anyone braying the extremes will suggest. For each up there's a down. Maybe the ultimate ratio is 105%, maybe 95% for each feature, impossible to actually quantify, but certainly not clear cut and average out a lot.

Carl31

Personally, i think this situation is less IF it happens, more WHEN

Even if we dont do leave in June, I reckon it wont be long before one of the others chooses to go, then I think the EU will be like a hosue of cards, some of the smaller countries will have to drop out eventually anyway, its obvious the Greek economy cannot cope with the demands of being in the EU, as the smaller countries get weaker with their inhabitants choosing to work in the stronger economic areas, in time they will need bailing out too

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Carl31 wrote: »

, its obvious the Greek economy cannot cope with the demands of being in the EU, as the smaller countries get weaker with their inhabitants choosing to work in the stronger economic areas, in time they will need bailing out too

And so what if they do?

There is no difference between people leaving the north of the UK to work in London and the North then needing subsidy.

The additional economic activity generated within the economic zone is more than enough to pay for the subsidies.

Things change over time.

Areas that were once busy become quiet and areas that were once quiet become busy. That is the natural ebb and flow of the World with ever changing patterns of trade, commerce and technology. It is foolhardy to think you can draw arbitrary lines in the dirt and just demand economic activity should happen within them forever.

Johnsmith2016

Generali wrote: »

By October? No chance.

Okay but can you answer the question please?

Generali

Johnsmith2016 wrote: »

Okay but can you answer the question please?

I did already.

You made a statement that Turkey would join the EU by October and then asked whether I believed you and my answer is unequivocal: no.

If you meant to ask whether Turkey will join the EU at some point between 1 second from now and the end of time then I have no idea and anyone who claims to have a Scooby is an idiot, a liar or both.

It's hardly my fault if you can't ask a question properly any more than it's my fault that you make ridiculous claims and then try to follow up those claims with fatuous questions.

Marktheshark

Turkey will join and within 12 months will need its first bail out, which will coincide with the next Greek debt restructuring and by time all this has gone through the EU will owe more money than there is in all banks in Europe in deposits .

Generali

Marktheshark wrote: »

Turkey will join and within 12 months will need its first bail out, which will coincide with the next Greek debt restructuring and by time all this has gone through the EU will owe more money than there is in all banks in Europe in deposits .

LOL. If I thought you were right I'd get you a job on our fixed income desk. Sadly you're just another idiot with an opinion and as they say opinions are like bottoms: everyone has one and they generally stink.